Prof Michael Clarke analysis: What is Russia's Yantar spy ship and how might UK deter it?

Key Concepts

• Yantar: A Russian spy ship designed for intelligence gathering and mapping undersea infrastructure.
• Undersea Cables and Pipelines: Critical infrastructure for communication and energy transfer, vulnerable to disruption.
• Laser Targeting: A tactic allegedly used by the Yantar to distract British pilots.
• New Era of Threat: A concept describing the current geopolitical landscape characterized by unpredictability and increased danger.
• Hard Power, Strong Allies, Sure Diplomacy: The proposed pillars of a new defense strategy.
• Submersibles: Remotely operated vehicles that can be deployed from the Yantar for deep-sea operations.
• Cyber Attacks: Digital threats targeting defense systems and critical infrastructure.
• Resilience: The ability of systems and nations to withstand and recover from disruptions.

Russian Spy Ship Yantar's Presence and Threat

Yantar's Deployment and Activities

John Healey, the Defence Secretary, reported that the Russian spy ship Yantar is currently positioned north of Scotland, at the edge of UK waters. This marks the second deployment of the Yantar to UK waters this year. The vessel is specifically designed for intelligence gathering and mapping undersea cables. During its operations, the Yantar has allegedly directed lasers at British pilots, a tactic described as "deeply dangerous."

Capabilities of the Yantar

Professor Michael Clark, a defense and security analyst, provided further details about the Yantar. The ship, launched around 2014-2015, has a history of operating in various locations, often hovering over cables. Its submersibles are capable of reaching depths of approximately 6,000 meters (20,000 feet), allowing them to operate on continental shelves. This capability enables the Yantar to survey or potentially lay charges against undersea cables and pipelines.

Significance of Targeting Cables and Pipelines

While damage to cables, often accidental, can be a nuisance and lead to rerouting, damage to pipelines is considered more serious due to the lack of frequent backups. The Yantar's ability to tap into cables also presents a significant intelligence advantage by allowing the interception of data traffic. The Yantar is part of the Russian Northern Fleet, with similar vessels reportedly in the Pacific fleet and another under construction. These specialized ships are considered a "nuisance" to NATO and are consistently tracked.

Broader Geopolitical Context and New Era of Threat

Escalating Global Threats

John Healey highlighted that the Yantar's actions are indicative of a "new era of threat" characterized by unpredictability and increased danger. He cited several recent events as evidence:

• The Israel-Iran war bringing the Middle East to the brink.
• Armed conflict between India and Pakistan.
• Chinese espionage targeting UK democracy.
• Russia's escalation of the war in Ukraine.
• Widespread drone disruptions in European skies.
• A doubling of Russian incursions into NATO airspace.
• 90,000 cyber attacks on UK defense systems in the last year alone.

Implications for Defense Strategy

This evolving threat landscape necessitates a "new era for defense," emphasizing "hard power, strong allies, and sure diplomacy."

Russian Motivations and Strategy

Testing Boundaries and Deterrence

Professor Clark speculated that the Yantar's reappearance towards the end of the year might be an attempt by Russia to test the UK's response and demonstrate its capabilities. Similar actions, such as drone incursions into Polish airspace and disruptions to European airports, are seen as efforts to convey to European nations that they are increasingly on their own in terms of defense support from the United States. This serves as a reminder that Russia can exert pressure, particularly if European countries continue to support Ukraine.

Long-Term Mapping and Disruption Planning

A significant aspect of Russia's strategy involves a long-term project to map and understand the location and vulnerabilities of undersea cables and pipelines. This intelligence is crucial for planning potential interference during a militarized crisis with Russia. Such a crisis would likely be accompanied by extensive cyber attacks and disruptions, the full impact of which remains uncertain.

Cyber Warfare and Resilience

The transcript noted that Russia's attempt at a massive cyber attack during the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 did not succeed, partly due to companies moving data to the cloud. However, the threat of cyber attacks remains a significant part of Russia's conflict planning. The figure of 90,000 attempted cyber attacks on UK defense systems in the last year underscores the dual nature of modern threats, encompassing both physical and digital dimensions. The government claims to be aware of these threats and is building resilience, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be tested.

UK's Defense Capabilities and Limitations

Royal Navy's Response

The UK has deployed a Royal Navy frigate and RAF P8 planes to monitor the Yantar. The Yantar was observed near a Type 45 destroyer, described as a highly capable vessel. However, it was noted that only three of the UK's six Type 45 destroyers are currently operational due to ongoing issues, limiting the UK's ability to deploy these assets effectively, especially given their demand in other regions like the Mediterranean and the Gulf.

Scale of Cyber Attacks

The statistic of 90,000 attempted cyber attacks on UK defense systems in the past year is highlighted as a remarkable and unprecedented figure, emphasizing the scale of the digital threat.

Conclusion

The presence of the Russian spy ship Yantar near UK waters, coupled with its alleged actions and the broader context of escalating global threats, underscores a significant shift in the security landscape. Russia's sophisticated intelligence gathering, particularly concerning critical undersea infrastructure, and its willingness to employ disruptive tactics, including cyber warfare, necessitate a robust and adaptable defense strategy. The UK, while acknowledging these threats and working to build resilience, faces challenges in maintaining its naval readiness and countering the multifaceted nature of modern aggression. The events highlight the interconnectedness of physical and digital security in the current geopolitical climate.