Prof. Dr. Torsten Dennin: Rohstoffe im Jahr 2026 - Ausblick, Chancen & Risiken

Key Concepts

• Commodity Supercycle: The expectation of a broad, sustained rise in commodity prices driven by energy costs and industrial demand.
• Energy-Commodity Linkage: The concept that oil prices act as a primary driver for inflation, transportation costs, and the production costs of secondary commodities like aluminum and fertilizers.
• Strait of Hormuz Risk: Geopolitical tensions impacting global oil supply chains and shipping costs.
• Mining Sector Valuation Gap: The argument that mining stocks are significantly undervalued relative to the performance of physical gold and silver.
• Quantitative & Qualitative Due Diligence: A dual-investment approach combining data analysis (number crunching) with direct management assessment.

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1. Market Situation and Macroeconomic Outlook

Professor Dr. Torsten Denin highlights that the global economy is currently in a "carbon economy" trap, where oil prices dictate economic growth and inflation.

• The 1970s Scenario: High oil prices act as a brake on economic growth, leading to stagflation. Conversely, falling oil prices act as a stimulus.
• Geopolitical Impact: The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is causing a divergence in oil prices. While US and European benchmarks (WTI/Brent) are around $95–$100, local Middle Eastern grades are reaching $120–$140.
• Inflationary Ripple Effects: Rising energy costs are not just affecting fuel at the pump; they are increasing the cost of goods transport and energy-intensive industries like aluminum production and nitrogen-based fertilizer manufacturing, which threatens agricultural yields.

2. Gold and Silver Strategy

Despite initial volatility in March, the outlook for precious metals remains bullish.

• Performance Data: Over the last 12 months, gold has risen 50% and silver 100%, while the DAX index has remained flat (0%).
• Investment Methodology: Asset Management Switzerland AG utilizes a mix of physical metals and mining stocks. During the March market correction, they utilized their 20% cash reserve to increase positions, moving from 20% cash to 95–96% invested.
• Portfolio Weighting: They currently favor a 70/30 split (Gold/Silver) but are looking to shift toward 60/40 to capture higher potential returns in silver.
• Volatility Management: The firm uses options strategies (selling puts and calls) to generate income during periods of consolidation, effectively profiting from the high volatility of the sector.

3. Mining Sector Investment Thesis

Dr. Denin argues that mining stocks have not yet fully priced in the gains of the underlying commodities.

• Upside Potential: He estimates a potential 200% to 300% average price appreciation for mining stocks to catch up to the "fair value" of the metals.
• Risk Management: The firm maintains a portion of the portfolio in physical metal (approx. 20–22%) to hedge against the high volatility of mining equities.

4. Future Outlook and Preferred Commodities

Looking toward 2026 and beyond, the focus is shifting from pure precious metals to a broader commodity play.

• Strategic Picks:
  • Copper: Described as an "all-time favorite" due to its essential role in infrastructure and electrification.
  • Uranium: Essential for future electricity generation and data center power requirements.
  • Specialty/Military Metals: High demand for defense and infrastructure, though these markets are harder to access and require rigorous due diligence.
• The "2026 Thesis": While gold and silver will remain stable, the broader commodity market (oil, gas, copper, aluminum, and agriculture) is expected to see significant growth in the coming years.

5. Investment Framework: Due Diligence

Dr. Denin emphasizes that investing in mining is inherently risky and requires a strict framework:

• Quantitative: "Number crunching" and Excel-based analysis.
• Qualitative: Direct engagement with company management.
• Accountability: If a company fails to deliver on its promises, it is removed from the portfolio. "It’s not just the numbers that count, but the trust in management and the delivery on promises."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The current market environment is defined by a complex, interconnected web of energy dependencies. While precious metals have provided a strong hedge against inflation, the most significant investment opportunity lies in the undervalued mining sector. Investors are advised to look beyond general market trends, conduct deep due diligence on management teams, and prepare for a broader commodity cycle that will extend well beyond gold and silver into industrial and energy-related metals.