'Pressure works': Belarus opposition leader Tikhanovskaya reacts to release of political prisoners

Key Concepts

• Political Prisoners: Individuals incarcerated for their political beliefs or opposition to a regime.
• Repression: The systematic suppression of dissent and opposition through force or intimidation.
• Sanctions: Penalties imposed by one country or group of countries on another, often economic or political, to exert pressure.
• Humanitarian Diplomacy: Diplomatic efforts focused on alleviating human suffering and protecting human rights.
• Democratic Change: The transition to a system of government where power is held by the people, typically through elected representatives.
• Exile: The state of being barred from one's native country, often for political reasons.
• KGB: The main security agency of the Soviet Union and its successor states, known for its intelligence and repressive activities.

Release of Political Prisoners and Opposition Movement in Belarus

This transcript details a conversation with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a prominent opposition leader in Belarus, following the release of several political prisoners who were deported to Lithuania. The discussion highlights the ongoing struggle for democracy in Belarus, the role of international diplomacy, and the personal sacrifices of those involved.

The Moment of Release and its Significance

• Joy and Relief: Tsikhanouskaya describes the moment of greeting the released prisoners in Lithuania as one of immense joy, particularly for their families who had endured years of uncertainty. She draws a parallel to her own husband's release, emphasizing the profound relief it brought.
• Key Figures Released: Notable individuals mentioned include Ales Bialiatski (Nobel Peace Prize laureate), Viktar Babaryka, and Maksim Znak. Tsikhanouskaya expresses happiness that they are no longer imprisoned but notes they are not yet home, having been deported.
• Ongoing Repression: Despite this release, Tsikhanouskaya stresses that the situation remains dire. She states that at least 1,200 political prisoners are still incarcerated, and daily arrests, terrorization of families, and repressions continue unabated.

International Diplomacy and Pressure

• US Involvement: Tsikhanouskaya expresses gratitude to the Trump administration, specifically mentioning Special Envoy John S. Cooley and President Trump's personal engagement. She credits this involvement with her husband's earlier release and believes President Trump possesses leverage to effect change.
• Team Effort: She emphasizes that the release was a "team effort," asserting that US diplomacy alone would be insufficient without the backing of European and UK sanctions. The pressure exerted by these sanctions, she argues, incentivized the regime to release prisoners.
• Humanitarian vs. Political Track: Tsikhanouskaya differentiates between a "humanitarian track" and a "political track" in diplomatic engagement. She views the communication between Washington and Minsk as a humanitarian mission, not a political reset, as there has been no fundamental change in the regime's behavior.
• Critique of Normalization: She cautions against normalizing relations with Alexander Lukashenka's regime, citing the ongoing repressions, support for Putin's war, and the lack of democratic progress. Lifting sanctions or normalizing relations, she argues, would be premature and counterproductive.
• Goal of Democratic Belarus: The ultimate goal, she reiterates, is for Belarus to become democratic, independent, and no longer a tool of Russian aggression. This requires humanitarian diplomacy to be coupled with sustained pressure, accountability, and long-term support for democratic change.

Personal Impact and Recovery

• Husband's Experience: Tsikhanouskaya's husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, an activist and blogger, was arrested in May 2020 and held in solitary confinement, which he described as so extreme he almost forgot how to speak. His release in June 2020 was facilitated by high-level US diplomatic efforts.
• Recovery Process: She acknowledges that her husband and other released prisoners are still undergoing a recovery process, both physically and emotionally. They need time to reconnect with loved ones and process the experiences of the past five years. She encourages them to prioritize rest and family before re-engaging in activism.
• Learning to Speak Again: The transcript highlights the severe isolation experienced by some prisoners, who were kept incommunicado and had to relearn basic communication skills.

The Opposition Movement's Strength and Future Strategy

• Iconic Women Leaders: Tsikhanouskaya reflects on the 2020 movement, which was notably fronted by three women: herself, Maria Kalesnikava, and Veranika Tsapkala. She acknowledges the iconic status of these figures and the hundreds of thousands who followed their lead.
• Complementary Strengths: With the release of figures like Bialiatski and Babaryka, Tsikhanouskaya believes the opposition movement can now leverage their strong voices. The immediate priority is for the newly released individuals to understand the developments of the past five years and then for the movement to strategize collectively on how to complement each other's efforts.
• Building Democracy in Exile: The opposition is actively building democracy even while in exile, and Tsikhanouskaya is confident they will reach agreement on future strategies.

The Security Landscape in Belarus

• Dire Situation: Tsikhanouskaya describes the security situation in Belarus as "dire," with Lukashenka employing dictatorial instruments to instill fear. Mobile phones can be checked at any moment, and acts of solidarity, such as supporting children of political prisoners or expressing an anti-war stance, are considered criminal.
• Finding Ways to Communicate: Despite the risks, people find ways to access free media, communicate with the opposition, and relay information from within the country to the outside world.
• Regime Fragility: She suggests that Lukashenka, despite his support from Putin, appears fragile. The situation in Ukraine could shift focus back to Belarus, and Lukashenka is perceived as a "lame duck" whose time is running out.
• Splitting Alliances: The opposition's task is to "split alliances" and engage with individuals within the system, offering them a better alternative than Lukashenka or Putin. This involves forming a coalition of supporting countries and proposing democratic reforms.

Normalization and Personal Security

• Normalization Conditions: Tsikhanouskaya clarifies that "normalization" would only be meaningful if repressions cease, people can return home freely, and independent media and political parties are allowed. The current actions might be seen as initial steps towards larger changes.
• Trump's Leverage: She reiterates that President Trump is in a unique position with leverage over Lukashenka, utilizing both "carrots" and "sticks."
• Personal Safety: Tsikhanouskaya acknowledges that her life in exile involves constant security concerns, with daily attacks on her office and threats received by her team. The KGB attempts to divide democratic forces, but she believes the movement is united by an idea, making it unbreakable.
• Commitment to the Cause: Despite the personal sacrifices and threats, Tsikhanouskaya remains committed to serving the Belarusian people, stating she has no right to stop.

Meeting President Trump

• Desire for Dialogue: Tsikhanouskaya expresses a strong desire to meet President Trump to provide a deeper understanding of Belarus. She hopes that after all political prisoners are released, President Trump might meet with them, which she considers the "best gift" for Belarus.
• Appreciation for Special Envoy: She is grateful for the appointment of a Special Envoy for Belarus, recognizing that President Trump distinguishes between the Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian tracks and works specifically on Belarus.