Presidents Xi and Trump discuss Taiwan and Ukraine via phone call

Key Concepts

• Sustain Momentum: Maintaining the positive progress and energy from previous meetings.
• Postwar Order: The international system and principles established after World War II.
• One China Principle: The diplomatic acknowledgment that there is only one sovereign state under the name "China," and that Taiwan is part of China.
• Peaceful Reunification: China's stated goal of unifying Taiwan with the mainland through non-coercive means.
• Ambivalent Language: Using language that is intentionally vague or open to multiple interpretations.
• Goodwill: Sincere intentions and a desire to act in a friendly and cooperative manner.
• Predictability: The ability to anticipate future actions and outcomes in a relationship.

China's Message and the Busan Meeting

Professor Shen Ding Lee explains that China's primary objective in the recent phone call with Trump was to sustain the momentum generated from the Busan meeting. The call aimed to reassure the international community that China and the US could effectively manage their trade relationship and their broader strategic partnership.

The Taiwan Issue and the Postwar Order

A significant point of discussion was the Taiwan issue, which has been a source of recent tension between China and Japan. China reiterated its adherence to the One China Principle, emphasizing that Taiwan is an integral part of China and part of the postwar order.

• Historical Context: The US played a crucial role in World War II, assisting China in reclaiming Taiwan from Japan.
• US Position Evolution:
  • During the Korean War, the US stated that Taiwan's status was uncertain, pending the resolution of the Korean War.
  • Subsequently, the US made efforts to rebuild relations with China, employing ambivalent language in the three communiqués between Washington and Beijing.
• China's Dissatisfaction: China remains unsatisfied with the US's continued arms sales to Taiwan.
• Peaceful Settlement vs. Peaceful Reunification: While the US accepts only a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question, China strives for peaceful reunification. China maintains that all possibilities remain open and will not relinquish non-peaceful means to achieve reunification.

Progress on Bilateral Issues and Future Outlook

The phone call covered a wide range of topics, including trade, Ukraine, and semiconductors. However, Professor Lee suggests that these are largely parts of the problem rather than indicators of significant forward movement in the bilateral relationship.

• Negotiations and Implementation: Five rounds of trade negotiations have occurred, with the latest endorsed in Busan. However, the actual implementation of goodwill in areas like chips, semiconductors, strategic minerals, airplane engines, and electronic design software remains to be seen.
• Uncertain Future: The path leading up to President Trump's potential visit to China for his second term in April could still be uncertain and turbulent.
• Importance of High-Level Contact: To foster trust and predictability, and to ensure the smooth functioning of the relationship, both countries need to maintain close high-level contact to assure each other of their commitment to implementing their goodwill.

Conclusion

The phone call between China and the US served to reinforce China's desire to maintain the positive trajectory established at the Busan meeting. While key issues like Taiwan were addressed, with China firmly asserting its position within the postwar order, the practical implementation of agreements on trade and other bilateral matters remains a critical and uncertain factor. The need for continued high-level communication is paramount to navigate potential turbulence and build trust for a more predictable relationship.