President Trump said the US will ‘run’ Venezuela temporarily

Key Concepts

• Regime Change vs. Leadership Change: The distinction between removing a single leader and dismantling an entire governing structure.
• Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO): A designation used by President Trump to describe the Venezuelan regime.
• Boots on the Ground: The deployment of significant military personnel to a conflict zone.
• Force Protection: Measures to safeguard military personnel and assets.
• Strategic Messaging: The impact of official communications on international relations and domestic perceptions.
• Democratic Legitimacy: The principle that a government's power derives from the consent of the governed, typically through elections.

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Analysis of US Policy in Venezuela: Challenges and Missed Opportunities

Mark Montgomery, retired Rear Admiral and Senior Director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, provides a critical analysis of President Trump's stated intention for the US administration to "be running Venezuela at least temporarily." Montgomery highlights several immediate challenges and potential pitfalls of the current approach.

Immediate Challenges and the Scope of Intervention

Montgomery first addresses the practicalities of US involvement, suggesting that significant "boots on the ground" are unlikely. He explains that deploying troops necessitates extensive "force protection" and "air defense," leading to a "very large footprint," as evidenced by past experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. This implies a preference for a less direct military presence.

He then clarifies that the current situation, where Maduro is "out of play," does not constitute true "regime change." Instead, he characterizes it as merely "change of the man at the top of the regime." Montgomery points out that key figures, specifically Minister of Defense Padrino Lopez and Minister of Interior Justice Cabela Randon, remain in positions of power. He asserts that these individuals are "just as big a players" in the "foreign terrorist organization" that President Trump used to label the Venezuelan government. For the US to genuinely dismantle this organization, which is accused of "pumping drugs into our country," these remaining power brokers must also be removed, and the "actual winners of the 2024 election, the opposition party," should be embraced.

Managing Relationships with Existing Power Structures

The discussion moves to the critical issue of how the US administration will manage its relationships with the Venezuelan military and the remaining ministers. Montgomery argues that dealing with the existing Minister of Defense and Justice/Interior Minister would be a "big lost opportunity." Such engagement, he believes, would signal to the Venezuelan military that "the game's back on," potentially undermining previous US actions.

He references a recent strike, approximately 36 hours prior to the interview, which served two purposes:

1. It "opened a path for the helicopters to get in and do the extraction."
2. It sent a "strong signal to the military and intelligence agencies in Venezuela: This is not a fight you want." Montgomery believes this message was effectively received. However, engaging with the current ministers would contradict this strong signal.

Impact of Messaging on International Alliances

Montgomery also raises concerns about the US administration's messaging regarding the intervention. He states that the message that this action was "not about the return of a democratically elected the proper democratic elected government is going to lose us a lot of potential allies and partners around the world." He specifically cites President Trump's "dismissive attitude towards Maria Machado" as "really striking," indicating a perceived lack of support for established democratic opposition figures. This approach risks alienating international partners who might otherwise support a clear objective of restoring democracy.

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Conclusion

Mark Montgomery's analysis underscores that while the US may have removed Maduro, the current strategy in Venezuela is incomplete and faces significant challenges. He argues that true regime change requires addressing the entire power structure, not just the top leader, and that engaging with remaining key figures could undermine US objectives. Furthermore, he emphasizes the critical importance of clear and consistent messaging that prioritizes the restoration of a democratically elected government to maintain international support and avoid alienating potential allies. The focus on specific individuals and the perceived lack of commitment to democratic principles are highlighted as major weaknesses in the current approach.