Portugal presidential election: What to expect | DW News

Key Concepts

• Portuguese Presidential Runoff (2024): The election between Antonio Costa’s chosen successor, António José Seguro, and far-right candidate André Ventura.
• Chega (Enough): The Portuguese far-right political party led by André Ventura.
• Political Instability in Portugal: The increasing frequency of elections and the decline of traditional parties.
• Migration as a Political Driver: The role of immigration concerns in fueling the rise of the far-right.
• Impact of Severe Weather: Potential effects on voter turnout in the election.

Presidential Runoff in Portugal: A Deep Dive

The Portuguese presidential runoff election features António José Seguro, the candidate backed by the Socialist party, against André Ventura of the Chega (Enough) party. This election is being closely watched as a barometer of the political climate in Portugal and wider European trends. Current polling data, as reported by DW correspondent Yan Philip Schultz, indicates Seguro is projected to win with over 60% of the vote. However, Ventura’s presence in the runoff itself is considered a significant development, representing a level of political instability not seen in Portugal since the democratic revolution over 50 years ago.

The Rise of the Far-Right: Chega and André Ventura

Ventura’s success is largely attributed to his focus on the issue of migration. Schultz notes Ventura’s rhetoric aligns with that of other populist leaders, employing slogans like “Portuguese first” and “This is not Bangladesh” which have resonated with a growing segment of the Portuguese electorate. This reflects a rising critical sentiment towards migration within Portugal in recent years. The party’s increasing radicalization was highlighted by a recent court ruling requiring the removal of street posters deemed to incite hatred towards ethnic minorities. This demonstrates the controversial nature of Chega’s platform and its potential to polarize the electorate.

Traditional Parties in Crisis & Cross-Party Support for Seguro

The election underscores a broader trend of instability within Portuguese politics. Traditional parties are experiencing a “deep crisis,” with the Democratic Alliance (an alliance of center-right to conservative parties) receiving only around 11% of the vote in the last elections. This decline in support for established parties has created space for the rise of Chega. Notably, many conservative candidates have publicly stated their intention to support Seguro, viewing him as a more moderate and cross-party option compared to Ventura. This suggests a strategic move to prevent a far-right victory, even among those who may ideologically align more closely with Ventura’s party.

Impact of Severe Weather on Voter Turnout

Recent severe weather conditions in Portugal pose a potential challenge to voter turnout. Some smaller towns have been forced to postpone elections, affecting an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 people. While experts believe the weather is unlikely to drastically alter the overall outcome, some suggest it could provide a slight advantage to Ventura. The reasoning is that conservative voters, who may be less enthusiastic about supporting Seguro, might be more inclined to stay home in inclement weather, potentially reducing Seguro’s margin of victory.

Political Implications & Future Trends

Regardless of the outcome, the election signals a significant shift in Portuguese politics. The frequent occurrence of elections – parliamentary or presidential almost annually – highlights the ongoing instability. The steady rise of the far-right, as evidenced by Chega’s growing support, is a key trend to watch. Schultz emphasizes that the election reflects a broader European shift towards right-wing politics, with migration often serving as a central issue.

As stated by Yan Philip Schultz, “It’s about the topic of migration. Ventura is not very different to other populist leaders in this regard. And a lot of Portuguese have become more critical towards migration in recent years.” This quote encapsulates the core driver behind Ventura’s success and the broader political landscape in Portugal.

This election serves as a crucial indicator of the evolving political dynamics in Portugal, demonstrating the challenges faced by traditional parties and the increasing influence of far-right ideologies centered around concerns about migration. The outcome will likely shape the political trajectory of the country in the coming years.