Poland: Why are young voters turning to the right? - The Global Jigsaw podcast, BBC World Service

Key Concepts:

• Karol Nawrocki: Newly elected president of Poland.
• Rafal Trzaskowski: Warsaw mayor and former foreign minister, Nawrocki's opponent.
• Slawomir Mentzen: Leader of the Confederation party, appealed to young voters.
• Grzegorz Braun: Far-right politician known for anti-Semitic and anti-Ukrainian views.
• Volyn Massacre/Tragedy: Mass killings of Polish civilians by Ukrainian nationalists during WWII.
• Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UIA): Ukrainian nationalist paramilitary formation.
• Stepan Bandera: Leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN).
• Cohabitation: Situation where the president and government are from opposing parties.
• PiS (Law and Justice Party): Centre-right party backing President Duda.
• Civic Coalition: Centre-left coalition leading the government.

1. Election of Karol Nawrocki and Political Landscape

• Karol Nawrocki, a political newcomer, will be the new president of Poland. His campaign highlighted his image as an amateur boxer and a strong leader, appealing to voters concerned about security due to the war in Ukraine.
• Nawrocki secured a narrow victory with 50.9% of the votes against Rafal Trzaskowski. The close result reflects a deeply polarized political climate.
• The election outcome doesn't change the existing "cohabitation" situation, where the president (backed by PiS) and the government (led by the Civic Coalition) are from opposing parties. This has led to President Duda vetoing legislation passed by the government, hindering the implementation of key campaign promises.
• Examples of vetoed legislation include attempts to restore judicial independence and provide over-the-counter access to the morning-after pill.

2. Factors Contributing to Nawrocki's Victory

• Nawrocki's image as an "ordinary Pole" resonated with voters, contrasting with Trzaskowski's perceived elitism.
• Negative press against Nawrocki paradoxically helped him by portraying him as unfairly targeted.
• Security concerns due to the war in Ukraine favored Nawrocki's image as a strong leader.
• Nawrocki's campaign effectively utilized social media, particularly YouTube interviews, to reach younger voters.

3. The Rise of Other Political Forces

• Slawomir Mentzen, representing the Confederation party, gained significant support, especially among young people, with his socially conservative and economically liberal platform. His campaign used TikTok effectively.
• Grzegorz Braun, a far-right politician with anti-Semitic and anti-Ukrainian views, garnered a surprising 6% of the vote, largely due to his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.

4. Poland's Stance on Russia and Ukraine

• Anti-Russian sentiment is strong in Poland due to historical grievances, but anti-Ukrainian sentiment also exists.
• Nawrocki has described Russia's aggression against Ukraine as a new imperial war and supports military aid for Ukraine.
• However, he opposes NATO and EU membership for Ukraine until historical differences, particularly regarding the Volyn massacre, are resolved.
• Nawrocki is on Russia's wanted list for removing Red Army monuments in Poland.

5. The Volyn Massacre and Polish-Ukrainian Relations

• The Volyn massacre, a series of mass killings of Polish civilians by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II, remains a significant point of tension between Poland and Ukraine.
• Polish officials estimate that 100,000 Poles were killed, while historians estimate between 60,000 and 100,000. Poland officially calls it the Volyn genocide, while Ukraine refers to it as the Volyn tragedy.
• Ukraine emphasizes that Ukrainians were also killed in retaliatory attacks by Poles and views the events as bilateral acts of ethnic cleansing.
• The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UIA), led by Stepan Bandera, perpetrated the massacre. Bandera is viewed as a murderer and Nazi collaborator in Poland, while in Ukraine, he is seen as a hero who fought for Ukrainian independence.
• Russia exploits the issue to justify its aggression against Ukraine.
• Exhumations of victims have begun, but Poland seeks an official statement from Ukraine recognizing the genocide, which Ukraine has been unwilling to provide.

6. Shifting Attitudes Towards Ukrainian Refugees

• While initially welcoming, attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees in Poland have hardened.
• Support for accepting Ukrainian refugees has decreased from over 80% to around 50%.
• Negative attitudes are prominent among young people.
• Factors contributing to this shift include competition for jobs, increased rent, and concerns about access to healthcare.
• Nawrocki has spoken in favor of limiting financial support for Ukrainian refugees.
• Despite the rhetoric, a UN report indicates that Ukrainian refugees have contributed more to the Polish economy than they have taken out in benefits.

7. Generational and Gender Divides

• A clear generational split exists in Polish politics, with young people breaking away from traditional media and mainstream politics.
• A gender divide is also evident, with the majority of women voting for Trzaskowski and the majority of men for Nawrocki.
• Abortion rights and social policy are key issues driving the female vote.
• Young men and women increasingly diverge in their worldviews, with men showing a growing preference for far-right parties and women turning to the left.

8. Potential Impact of Nawrocki's Presidency

• Pro-Kremlin media has portrayed Nawrocki as an anti-Ukrainian candidate, while others view him as a Russophobe or an American stooge.
• Some analysts believe that Nawrocki's closeness to the Trump administration could benefit Ukraine.
• His stance on NATO membership for Ukraine is seen as a response to Polish fears of being dragged into the war.
• The Tusk government has survived a vote of no confidence and is making a slight turn to the right.

9. Future Political Landscape

• Polish analysts predict political instability and the possibility of early elections.
• There is a risk of a right-wing takeover, with a right-wing president and government.
• Some commentators believe that the far-right candidate, Grzegorz Braun, will become more popular in the future.

10. Conclusion

The election of Karol Nawrocki as president of Poland reflects a complex and polarized political landscape shaped by historical grievances, security concerns, and shifting attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees. The cohabitation situation, generational and gender divides, and the rise of other political forces create uncertainty about the future political direction of Poland. The key takeaways are the deep divisions within Polish society, the growing influence of social media in elections, and the challenges in Polish-Ukrainian relations stemming from historical events.