Pokrovsk: Fighting intensifies around key town in Ukraine | DW News

Key Concepts

• Drone and Missile Strikes: Russia's use of drones and missiles against Ukrainian cities, and Ukraine's retaliatory strikes on Russian infrastructure.
• Eastern Front Assault: Russia's offensive in the key eastern city of Pokrovsk, with conflicting claims of surrender and gains.
• Energy Infrastructure Attacks: Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian oil and gas facilities to pressure Russia into peace.
• Russian Public Opinion: Contradictory sentiments in Russia, with support for the invasion but also a desire for peace talks.
• New Weaponry: Russia's development and testing of advanced weapons like the Burvestnic cruise missile and Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo.
• Western Arms Deliveries: Ukraine's requests for long-range missiles from Western allies and the cautious approach to their delivery and use.
• War of Attrition: The current military strategy employed by both sides, aiming to exhaust the enemy's resources and manpower.
• Pokrovsk as a Strategic Hub: The importance of Pokrovsk as a logistical center and the ongoing fierce fighting for its control.
• Ukrainian Defense Strategy: Ukraine's focus on slowing Russian advances, minimizing its own losses, and avoiding encirclement.

Russian Strikes and Ukrainian Retaliation

Over the weekend, Russia launched a wave of drone and missile attacks targeting cities across Ukraine. These assaults resulted in at least six fatalities, including two boys aged 11 and 14, in the Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions. Simultaneously, Ukraine is facing a significant Russian offensive in the strategically important eastern city of Pokrovsk. Moscow asserts that Ukrainian forces are on the brink of surrender, while Kyiv claims to be making territorial gains. These overnight attacks have repeatedly disrupted power supplies to tens of thousands of people.

In response to the attacks on its power grid, Ukraine has been conducting retaliatory strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure. Analysts suggest this represents a new strategy aimed at bringing the war directly to Russia and compelling it towards peace negotiations.

Ukraine's Campaign to Bring the War Home to Russia

The transcript highlights the aftermath of a recent Ukrainian drone attack on a water reservoir dam in Russia's Belgorod region, which prompted evacuations from nearby villages. Further evidence of this strategy is seen in videos reportedly showing Ukrainian drones targeting oil refineries in the Ulyanovsk, Ryazan, and Samara regions. These are not isolated incidents but are believed to be part of a broader campaign by Kyiv to escalate the conflict within Russia.

In October alone, Ukraine reportedly struck over a dozen targets inside Russia using drones and missiles. These attacks were geographically dispersed, ranging from regions near Ukraine's border to targets deep within Russian territory. While most suspected strikes targeted oil refineries, some also hit ammunition plants and even a warship.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, explains that Kyiv is strategically selecting these targets with a specific objective: "One of the main goals of strikes in Russia's rear is to force Russia to end the war, to make the cost of the war higher for Russia, and to increase the incentive to bring the war to an end."

Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia

There is emerging evidence that this campaign is having an impact on the Russian domestic front. Amidst ongoing Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, long queues have formed at gas stations across Russia, with some stations experiencing fuel shortages and others reporting record-high prices. Regional authorities have issued warnings about a potential fuel crisis, and Russia's Ministry of Defense has proposed deploying reservists to guard oil refineries. A decision has been made to involve "the most well-trained and patriotically minded citizens in measures to protect civilian facilities deep inside Russian territory."

The effect of these Ukrainian attacks on Russian public opinion remains unclear. While most Russians reportedly still support the Kremlin's invasion, and criticizing the war can lead to imprisonment, a majority of those surveyed also express a preference for peace talks with Ukraine. This presents a paradox where Russians state, "Yes, Russia is fighting extremely successfully. And at the same time, they say it's time to end this fighting. Everything is going great. It was right to start the special military operation, but let's wrap it up already."

Russia's Determination and New Weaponry

Despite public sentiment, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears determined to continue his confrontation with Ukraine and the West. In recent weeks, he has publicly boasted about the development of new weapons, including the testing of the subsonic Burvestnic cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo. Putin stated that "The power of the Poseidon far exceeds that of even our most advanced intercontinental missile, the SAT. There's nothing like the SAT anywhere in the world."

Ukraine is expected to persist with its strikes deep inside Russia and is urging its Western partners to supply more advanced, long-range missiles, particularly American ones, to enhance its strike capabilities and further pressure Moscow. However, the delivery of these weapons and authorization for their use by allies has been slow and cautious.

Expert Analysis: Ukraine's Objectives and Western Hesitation

Domitila Sagramoso, a Senior Lecturer in Security and Development at King's College London, specializing in Russian security policy, provides further insights. She explains that Ukraine's strikes inside Russia have two main objectives:

1. Weakening Russia's Export Capacity: By targeting oil terminals, refining centers, and fuel stations, Ukraine aims to reduce Russia's ability to refine and sell oil and oil products. Reports suggest this has led to a reduction in Russian oil refining capacity by approximately 30-35%, though other reports indicate a smaller impact of 4.5-5%.
2. Disrupting Russia's Logistic Capacity: Attacks on ammunition depots, airfields, aircraft, and troop concentrations are intended to hinder Russia's "war machine" and its ability to conduct operations on the front lines or strike Ukrainian strategic and energy infrastructure.

Regarding Western hesitation to supply long-range missiles like Tomahawks, Sagramoso points to President Putin's clear opposition and his messages to President Trump. Putin has indicated potential retaliations that could affect bilateral US-Russian relations, making Trump cautious. Despite the Pentagon clearing the way for the sale of Tomahawks to Ukraine (with European funding), Trump remains hesitant.

The Nature of the Conflict: A War of Attrition

The conflict, now over three years old, is described as being "a bit in the middle" – not entirely frozen but characterized by heavy fighting along the entire front lines. Russia has been making slow, costly advances, incurring high casualties and expending significant ammunition. However, these advances are incremental, with Russia slowly taking villages and cutting supply lines. Ukraine has also demonstrated effectiveness in counter-offensives, pushing back Russian advances in areas like Avdiivka and the northeast around Sumy.

Both sides are employing a strategy of attrition, aiming to exhaust the other in terms of manpower and equipment. While Russia's slow but steady advances might suggest the war is in their favor, the domestic economic impact, including energy provision problems, is significant. The question of how long Russia can sustain this offensive remains unanswered.

The Battle for Pokrovsk

Nick Connelly, a correspondent in Kyiv, discusses the intense military and propaganda battle for Pokrovsk. While Russian military correspondents claim Russia controls the city, this is disputed. Pokrovsk is currently the hottest point on the front lines, with reports indicating that Russian resources are being diverted there, suggesting a strong desire from Vladimir Putin to capture the city.

The fall of Pokrovsk has been anticipated for some time, with civilians evacuating and businesses closing. However, Ukrainian troops remain on the ground, working to prevent encirclement and facilitate the withdrawal of less mobile units. The deployment of special forces and paratroopers by helicopter was aimed at slowing the Russian advance and preventing large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers from being taken prisoner.

Pokrovsk was historically a vital logistical hub for the southeastern Donetsk region, though its relevance has diminished as Russia has captured more territory. The fall of Pokrovsk is expected to shift the focus to other cities like Kramatorsk. Ukraine's broader strategy involves slowing Russian advances, maximizing Russian losses while minimizing its own, and avoiding large-scale casualties, given its limited resources and manpower compared to Russia. The slow pace of Russian advances, despite significant resource investment, raises questions about their long-term sustainability. Ukraine's current approach is to ensure a controlled withdrawal from Pokrovsk, avoiding chaos and minimizing prisoner captures.