‘People would be outraged’: Possibility of Australian republic referendum after polling support

Key Concepts

• The Voice Referendum: A recent referendum in Australia concerning a proposed advisory body to Parliament.
• Republic Referendum: A potential future referendum on Australia becoming a republic.
• Dismissal: Refers to the 1975 Australian constitutional crisis.
• Monarchy: The system of government headed by a monarch, in this context, the British monarchy.
• Referendum: A direct vote by the electorate on a particular proposal or law.
• Figurehead: A person who is the nominal leader but has little or no real power.
• Australian Instinct: A perceived tendency for Australians to vote "no" in referendums.

Discussion on the Republic Idea and the Prime Minister

The transcript discusses the possibility of the Prime Minister considering another push for a republic, potentially reignited by the 50th anniversary of the 1975 dismissal. One speaker expresses concern, suggesting that while the Prime Minister may feel confident after a successful election campaign (winning 94 seats), a republic referendum might not be a winning proposition. This is based on the historical difficulty republicans have had in settling on a model and the potential for public backlash, especially after the cost of the "Voice" referendum.

Public Opinion and Polling Data

While polling might indicate rising support for a republic, the speakers highlight the unpredictability of referendum outcomes, referencing the failure of the "Voice" referendum. A specific piece of data from a poll is mentioned: 6% of people were unaware of King Charles, and 8% were unaware of Prince Andrew. This is interpreted as a significant portion of the population being disengaged or uninformed about the monarchy, suggesting that a republic referendum might not resonate with a broad electorate.

The Monarchy's Current Standing

The current state of the British monarchy is presented as a factor against a republic push. Queen Elizabeth II is described as having been incredibly popular and respected, running a "tight ship." King Charles III is seen as performing "better than expected," and the younger royals, including Kate and Prince George, are popular. This popularity is argued to make it unlikely that the monarchy will be "touched" or that there will be a significant intervention in Australian politics related to it, unlike the situation with Gough Whitlam.

The "Australian Instinct" and Referendum Outcomes

A key argument presented is the "Australian instinct" to vote "no" in referendums, encapsulated by the phrase "if the bike ain't broke, don't fix it." This instinct is seen as a significant hurdle for any referendum, including a republic. The resilience of the English monarchy, having survived historical challenges like King George III and, humorously, Megan Markle, is cited as evidence of its enduring nature.

Political Considerations for Referendums

It is stated that for any referendum to succeed, "both parties to back it." The speakers believe that a republic referendum is unlikely to happen and is not on the agenda anytime soon. The most probable next referendum is suggested to be on four-year parliamentary terms, not a republic.

Conclusion and Takeaways

The overarching takeaway is that despite any potential political inclination or polling data suggesting support for a republic, the current political climate, public sentiment, and the perceived stability of the monarchy make a republic referendum highly improbable in the near future. The lessons learned from the "Voice" referendum, coupled with a general Australian tendency towards caution in referendums, are seen as significant deterrents. The popularity of the current monarchy and the disengagement of some segments of the population from royal figures further diminish the likelihood of a successful republic campaign.