Peace, security and Petro's legacy: What's at stake in Colombia's election? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Total Peace (Paz Total): President Gustavo Petro’s policy of using dialogue and negotiations with armed groups to achieve stability.
• Historical Pact (Pacto Histórico): The leftist political coalition currently in power.
• Democratic Center (Centro Democrático): The conservative political party associated with former President Álvaro Uribe.
• Multidimensional Poverty: A measure of poverty that goes beyond income to include access to education, health, and basic services.
• Fiscal Space: The room in a government's budget to provide resources for a desired purpose without jeopardizing financial sustainability.
• Illicit Economy: Revenue streams for armed groups derived from drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion.

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1. Main Topics and Candidates

The upcoming presidential election is a referendum on the legacy of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. The field has narrowed to three primary contenders:

• Iván Cepeda (Historical Pact): Represents the continuation of Petro’s leftist agenda. His platform includes expanding social and labor reforms, increasing taxes on the wealthy/corporations, and continuing peace negotiations. He has suggested the possibility of rewriting the Constitution if political gridlock persists.
• Abelardo de la Espriella (Independent/Hardline): An outsider attorney advocating for a "tough-on-crime" approach. He proposes cutting government spending, lowering business taxes, dismantling specific agencies created by Petro, and strictly opposes constitutional reform.
• Paloma Valencia (Conservative/Democratic Center): Backed by the party of former President Álvaro Uribe. She advocates for market-friendly economic policies, increased investment in the oil and gas sectors, and an aggressive military-led security strategy.

2. Security and the "Total Peace" Strategy

The security situation remains a central campaign issue, exacerbated by recent clashes involving dissident FARC factions in regions like Guaviare.

• The Conflict Shift: Since the 2016 peace agreement, the conflict has evolved from ideological warfare to a struggle against criminalized actors focused on the illicit economy.
• Policy Critique: Elizabeth Dickinson (International Crisis Group) notes that neither the military-heavy approach of the Iván Duque administration nor the dialogue-heavy "Total Peace" approach of the Petro administration has successfully curbed the expansion of criminal activity.
• The Reality of Violence: The campaign has been marred by violence, including the assassination of a pre-candidate in June 2025.

3. Economic Landscape

• Mixed Indicators: While unemployment is at a record low and multidimensional poverty has improved under Petro, the country faces significant fiscal challenges.
• Fiscal Constraints: Colombia is currently borrowing at one of the highest rates globally, leaving the incoming president with very limited "fiscal space" to implement new spending programs.
• Inequality: Despite economic shifts, Colombia remains one of the most unequal countries in Latin America, ensuring that social policy will remain a non-negotiable demand for voters.

4. International Relations and the U.S.

• Strategic Importance: The U.S. remains Colombia’s primary trading partner and military ally.
• The "War on Drugs" Dilemma: The next president must balance pressure from Washington to adopt a hardline stance against organized crime with the domestic reality that high-level captures often trigger localized spikes in violence.
• Regional Trends: There is a noted regional shift toward conservative, security-focused leadership (similar to trends in Chile and Argentina), which influences the appeal of candidates like Valencia and de la Espriella.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The election highlights a deep polarization between two distinct visions for Colombia:

1. The Leftist Vision: Prioritizes social grievances, wealth redistribution, and dialogue-based conflict resolution.
2. The Rightist Vision: Prioritizes economic orthodoxy, market-friendly policies, and military-led security.

Key Takeaway: Regardless of the winner, the next administration will likely need to adopt a hybrid strategy. Dickinson argues that a purely military or purely dialogue-based approach is insufficient. Success will require a comprehensive strategy that combines military pressure, targeted dialogue, and—most importantly—a stronger state presence in remote areas to provide services and economic alternatives, thereby addressing the root causes of child recruitment and criminal participation. The polarization is expected to intensify as the country moves toward a potential runoff.