Partition of Gaza a looming risk as Trump's plan falters • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Yellow Line: A demarcation line established by Israeli troops in Gaza, potentially becoming a de facto border.
• Trump Peace Plan: A US-backed truce agreement for Gaza, outlining intentions for a ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and a multinational security force, but lacking detailed implementation plans.
• De Facto Border: A boundary that exists in practice, even if not officially recognized or agreed upon.
• Multinational Security Force: An international force intended to maintain order in Gaza, but facing challenges in troop commitment and mandate definition.
• Palestinian Technocrat Entity/Administration: A proposed non-political Palestinian government to manage Gaza, supported by some European and Arab states.
• Palestinian Authority (PA): The Palestinian governing body in the West Bank, whose involvement in Gaza's security is opposed by Israel.
• Two-State Solution: A proposed resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict involving the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
• Accountable Government: A government that is answerable to its citizens, a prerequisite for a legitimate Palestinian state.
• Status Quo Stalemate: The current situation where neither Israel nor Hamas is willing to significantly alter the existing arrangement in Gaza.

Gaza Ceasefire Deal and the "Yellow Line"

The US-led efforts to advance beyond the initial phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal are encountering significant obstacles. A primary concern is the potential for the "yellow line," marked by concrete blocks used by Israeli troops, to become a permanent fixture, effectively dividing the Gaza Strip. Under the first stage of the US-backed truce, Israel agreed to retreat to a boundary, but the current situation suggests this line may become a de facto border.

• Territorial Division: The yellow line divides Gaza into two sections. 53% of the territory is currently under Israeli control, heavily guarded. The remaining 47% houses nearly all of Gaza's 2 million inhabitants, living in camps and amidst debris.
• Stalled Second Phase: The next phase of the truce agreement, which mandates further Israeli withdrawal, is faltering. Many fear Israel is preparing to maintain its presence.
• Palestinian Rejection: Palestinians unequivocally reject the continued occupation and the establishment of a de facto border, expressing a desire for dignity and self-determination on their land.

Obstacles to Implementing the Truce Agreement

The implementation of the second phase of the US-backed truce agreement is hindered by several key issues:

• Hamas's Reemergence and Israeli Demands: Hamas militants have reasserted control in some areas, while Israel insists on withdrawing from the east only after Hamas is disarmed and a multinational security force is in place.
• Challenges in Establishing a Multinational Force: Governments are hesitant to commit troops to a multinational security force, especially if their mandate extends beyond peacekeeping to confronting militants.
• Disagreement on Palestinian Authority Involvement: Israel opposes the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and its police in enforcing order in Gaza, creating a vacuum in security provision.
• Hamas's Stance on Power Transfer: A Hamas spokesperson has indicated readiness to hand over power to a Palestinian technocrat entity, but this does not explicitly include disarmament.
• Israel's Preference for Status Quo: Israel appears content with the current situation, where Hamas is prevented from reorganizing and attacking, and they maintain control over 53% of the territory.
• Hamas's Interest in Maintaining Power: Hamas's primary interest seems to be retaining political power in Gaza, with less apparent focus on the welfare of the Palestinian people.

Proposed Solutions and Their Challenges

Several proposals aim to fill the power vacuum and facilitate the implementation of the truce, but face significant hurdles:

• European and Arab State Proposal: This suggests the Palestinian Authority and its police could enforce order in Gaza, supported by an international stabilization force.
• Need for Palestinian Police and International Support: Dr. Nicholas Wescott emphasizes the imperative of a Palestinian police force for security, supported by an international stabilization force, a point on which there is general agreement.
• Israel's Opposition to PA Involvement: Israel's refusal to allow the Palestinian Authority to operate in Gaza is a major impediment.
• Requirement for US Engagement: International diplomats believe that without a concerted push from the United States, the current demarcation line could become a de facto border for an extended period.

Implications of a De Facto Border

The establishment of a de facto border would have severe consequences for Palestinians in Gaza:

• Limited Reconstruction: Reconstruction efforts might be confined to the 53% of the territory under Israeli control.
• Economic Deprivation: This division would cut Palestinians off from some of Gaza's most fertile agricultural land, hindering their prospects for prosperity.

The Trump Peace Plan and its Implementation

Dr. Nicholas Wescott, former diplomat and academic at the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies, offers insights into the challenges facing the Trump peace plan:

• Thin on Detail and Process: While the plan outlines good intentions, such as a multinational force and a technocratic Palestinian administration, it is "very thin on detail and particularly on process," which are crucial for effective peace plans.
• Lack of Implementation: The proposed mechanisms are not yet in place due to the reluctance of contributing countries to commit troops to a potential war zone and the lack of desire from both Israel and Hamas for a technocratic Palestinian government.
• US Engagement Crucial: Dr. Wescott argues that the plan requires significant engagement from the US, specifically from President Trump himself, to move the parties and ensure the entire territory comes under a technocratic and accountable Palestinian administration.
• US Mediators' Efforts: US teams have been engaged in negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, likely discussing the implementation of the plan's principles, particularly Hamas's disarmament. However, the results of these discussions remain largely undisclosed.

Prospects for a Two-State Solution

The current situation in Gaza casts a shadow over efforts to achieve a two-state solution:

• Need for Accountable Palestinian Government: For a two-state solution to be viable, Palestinians need to establish an accountable government. The absence of elections in the West Bank and Gaza for over a decade means neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority can claim legitimate electoral authority.
• Accountability as a Prerequisite: Without accountability to the people, it will be difficult to establish a state acceptable to its inhabitants.
• Israel's Apprehension: Israel is reportedly content with the lack of progress towards a democratic Palestinian state, as it would make it harder to acquire more Palestinian land.
• Macron's Initiative: French President Emmanuel Macron's support for the PA in drafting a constitution for a future Palestinian state is seen as a positive step towards establishing a proper constitution and a democratic political system.
• Strengthening Palestinian Position: Developing a democratic political system is crucial for Palestinians to strengthen their position against continued territorial encroachment by Israel.

Reconstruction and Long-Term Security

The path to reconstruction and long-term security in Gaza is fraught with challenges:

• Extensive Reconstruction Needs: Reconstruction efforts are expected to be costly and time-consuming, potentially taking years or even decades.
• Risk of Israeli Annexation: There is a risk that Israel might develop the areas it controls and then seek to retain them.
• Priority on Stability: The immediate priority is to establish a stable state with law and order and an administration in the Palestinian-controlled areas of Gaza.
• US Leadership Required: This requires significant effort from the US, with support from Arab and European countries, to incentivize changes by offering reconstruction funding.
• Failure of the Trump Plan Without US Re-engagement: Without high-level US involvement to establish a police force, a proper administration, and ensure Palestinian security internally and from Israeli attacks, the status quo will persist, and the Trump peace plan will likely fail.
• Current Status: The situation is far from ideal, and only the US has the capacity to drive the necessary changes.

Conclusion

The current situation in Gaza is characterized by a stalled ceasefire deal, the potential establishment of a de facto border, and significant obstacles to implementing a lasting peace. The "yellow line" represents a tangible manifestation of these challenges, dividing the territory and limiting Palestinian access to vital resources. While the Trump peace plan offers a framework, its lack of detailed implementation plans and the conflicting interests of key actors, particularly Israel and Hamas, have prevented its full realization. The establishment of a stable, accountable Palestinian administration and a multinational security force are critical prerequisites for reconstruction and any prospect of a two-state solution. Ultimately, the responsibility for breaking the current stalemate and moving towards a more secure future for Gaza rests heavily on renewed and high-level engagement from the United States.