Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to 48-hour ceasefire | DW News

Key Concepts

• 48-hour ceasefire: A temporary suspension of hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Durand Line: The disputed border separating Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Tehran: Likely a misstatement in the transcript, referring to the volatile border region rather than the capital of Iran.
• TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan): The Pakistani Taliban, a militant group.
• Balochistan: A province in Pakistan with a nationalist movement.
• Swat District: A region in Pakistan where the Pakistani Taliban previously had autonomy.
• Afghan Taliban: The ruling group in Afghanistan since 2021.
• Civil War: A widespread internal conflict within Pakistan.
• Tribal Areas: Historically autonomous regions in Pakistan, now a point of contention.
• War on Terror: The post-9/11 military operations in Afghanistan.

Border Clashes and Ceasefire

Pakistan and Afghanistan have announced a 48-hour ceasefire following a week of intense border clashes, the most severe since the Taliban's takeover in 2021. The immediate trigger for the escalation was a series of explosions in Kabul, which the Taliban attributed to Pakistan. In response, Islamabad accused the Taliban of harboring militant groups responsible for attacks within Pakistan. Both nations claim the ceasefire was initiated at the other's request.

Volatility of the Situation

Zardash Shams, a former Afghan deputy ambassador to Pakistan, described the situation as "quite volatile." He expressed uncertainty about the ceasefire's sustainability due to the inherent instability of the Durand Line, the challenging geography, the presence of numerous checkpoints, and the significant presence of militants, particularly in Pakistan's tribal areas. Shams highlighted that the recent "aggressive attack" by the Pakistani military on Afghanistan, initially targeting Kabul and then southeastern parts of Afghanistan, led to retaliation from the Taliban. The effectiveness of the ceasefire hinges on the commitment of both sides to uphold their promises.

Breakdown in Relations and Underlying Issues

Shams believes Pakistan is currently facing a "full-fledged wide scale of civil war," not confined to a single region but spread across tribal areas and Balochistan. He emphasized that the roots of this conflict predate the Taliban's return to power in 2021, tracing the history of groups like the TTP back nearly two decades. The TTP was formally established around 2006-2007, but their presence and influence existed earlier, including a period before 2001 when Pakistan granted them autonomy in the Swat district. Additionally, Shams mentioned the nationalist movement in Balochistan, which also involves militancy.

A core issue, according to Shams, is Pakistan's "expectations" from both the previous Afghan republic and the current Taliban government. These expectations are so high that neither government, even the Taliban who are perceived as closer to Pakistan, can fulfill them. The difficulty in securing the tribal areas and the Durand Line, a challenge that even NATO and US forces with advanced technology could not overcome, further complicates the situation. Tribal affiliations and connections across the border also play a significant role.

Pakistan's Accusations and Afghan Taliban's Position

Pakistan openly accuses Afghanistan of providing a safe haven to the TTP and supporting their fight against Islamabad. Shams refutes these claims, stating, "No, I don't think there are any truth." While acknowledging potential tribal connections and shared ethnicity, he argues that the Afghan Taliban are sincerely trying to manage the situation. He explained that the Afghan Taliban initially assisted or coordinated negotiations with the TTP but cannot "dictate them."

Shams characterized the issue as an "internal issue of Pakistan," a civil war where the TTP's support network and operations are deeply embedded within Pakistan. He finds it "quite difficult" for the Afghan Taliban to assist and fulfill the demands of the Pakistani government in this context.

Multi-faceted Nature of TTP Grievances

Regarding the record levels of attacks on Pakistani security forces, Shams stressed that Afghanistan or the Afghan Taliban are not the sole reasons. He described the situation as "multi-faceted." The TTP has grievances stemming from decades of Pakistani military actions, including bombings of villages, killings, and economic destruction. Shams stated, "It's a have a background of several decades; it's not a overnight thing that it will be like it can resolve or it even the Afghan Taliban can help."

He further elaborated on the historical context of the tribal areas, which were once autonomous regions serving as a buffer between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and previously between Afghanistan and the British Empire. The Pakistani military's intervention after 2001 under the guise of the "War on Terror" led to "atrocities" and bombings, creating grievances that have fueled an uprising.

Conclusion

The recent border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, culminating in a 48-hour ceasefire, highlight the deep-seated and complex nature of their relationship. The volatility stems from the disputed Durand Line, the presence of militant groups like the TTP, and differing expectations between the two nations. While Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harboring militants, the Afghan Taliban maintain they cannot fully control or dictate the actions of groups with deep roots within Pakistan. The underlying issues are multifaceted, involving historical grievances, internal Pakistani conflicts, and the challenging geography of the border region. The sustainability of the ceasefire remains uncertain, dependent on the genuine commitment of both sides to de-escalate and address the complex underlying causes of the conflict.