'Over-dependence on military solutions: Mali struggling in its effort to regain peace and security'

Key Concepts

• AES (Alliance of Sahelian States): A security and political bloc comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
• JNIM (Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin): A formidable Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist coalition operating in the Sahel.
• Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group): Russian paramilitary forces operating in Mali.
• Irregular Warfare: A form of conflict that involves non-conventional tactics, which the Malian military is currently struggling to counter.
• Root Cause Analysis: The theory that security crises must be addressed through non-military, socio-political efforts rather than solely through kinetic military force.

1. Current Security Crisis in Mali

The security situation in Mali has deteriorated significantly following a car bombing near the capital that killed the defense minister and resulted in 22 deaths. Simultaneously, an alliance of Tuareg rebels and jihadist insurgents has captured the northern town of Kidal.

• Russian Withdrawal: Videos have surfaced showing Russian mercenaries (Africa Corps) retreating from Kidal, having been granted safe passage to Libya by the insurgency.
• Leadership Status: Junta leader Assimi Goïta has been absent from public view since the attacks, though the presidency released images of him meeting with the Russian ambassador to project stability.

2. Critique of Military-Centric Strategy

Political scientist Folahanmi Aina argues that the Malian junta’s reliance on a purely military approach is counterproductive.

• The "Protractedness" of Conflict: Aina notes that data indicates Mali continues to lose territory and struggle with security despite the intensification of military operations.
• Strategic Misalignment: The junta’s focus on military solutions at the expense of addressing underlying socio-political root causes has contributed to the longevity of the conflict.
• Russian Limitations: Aina suggests that Russia is prioritizing its own geopolitical interests over the security of the junta. He emphasizes that Mali and the AES states cannot rely on Russia to guarantee their sovereignty and must look inward to develop more sustainable, multi-faceted security strategies.

3. Profile of Iyad Ag Ghaly and JNIM

The report highlights the evolution of Iyad Ag Ghaly, the leader of JNIM, as a reflection of the shifting insurgency landscape.

• Background: Born in 1958, Ag Ghaly has transitioned from a secular Tuareg separatist (founder of the Azawad National Liberation Movement) to a radical Islamist leader.
• Evolution of JNIM: Formed in 2017 by merging several militant groups, JNIM acts as an Al-Qaeda affiliate. Its primary objectives are to topple the Malian government and establish territorial control.
• Economic Warfare: JNIM is actively diversifying its income by targeting Mali’s gold resources and imposing fuel blockades to cripple the capital, Bamako.
• Legal Status: Ag Ghaly is subject to an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including the enforcement of brutal Sharia law (stoning, flogging, and amputations).

4. Future Outlook and Strategic Options

The Malian junta faces a precarious future as it remains "on the back foot."

• The AES Limitation: While Goïta may look to Burkina Faso and Niger for support, Aina points out that these nations are equally overstretched, lack the necessary equipment for irregular warfare, and suffer from insufficient troop numbers.
• Policy Recommendations: Aina suggests that the junta’s most viable path forward involves:
  1. Leveraging ECOWAS: Re-engaging with the West African regional bloc.
  2. Western Re-engagement: Rekindling ties with Western partners to supplement security efforts.
• Synthesis: The current strategy of over-dependence on military force and external Russian support has failed to stabilize the country. To survive, the Malian state must pivot toward a combination of military and non-military (diplomatic/developmental) efforts while acknowledging the limitations of its current regional alliances.

Notable Quote

"The data shows that Mali continues to struggle in its effort to regain peace and security in the country... [The junta] cannot continue to depend on Russia to guarantee the security of their countries. Rather, they need to look inwards." — Folahanmi Aina