Orban: Venezuela “good news” for Hungary, Putin "fears" condemning US action | Ukraine: The Latest

Ukraine the Latest - January 5th, 2026: Summary

Key Concepts:

• Russian Response to Venezuela: Nuanced, leaning towards tacit approval due to strategic alignment with the US, prioritizing relations with Trump.
• Ukrainian Security Guarantees: Demand for physical presence of foreign troops (UK & France) on Ukrainian territory.
• Russian Military Tactics: Continued small team assaults in Kharkiv, differing from larger group tactics in Zaporizhzhia.
• Sanctions: New sanctions imposed on individuals and entities supporting Russia’s military-industrial complex, including citizens of Russia and China.
• Ukrainian Government Reshuffle: Appointments of new defense minister (Fedorov) and head of military intelligence (Ivenko).
• Preemptive Military Action: Discussion of legality, necessity, proportionality, and responsible conduct following the US operation in Venezuela.
• Kadirov’s Health: Concerns raised about the health of Chechen leader Raman Kadirov and potential succession issues.

1. Russia’s Response to the US Operation in Venezuela

The Russian response to the US operation in Venezuela has been notably muted and complex. While formally condemning the action alongside Belarus in a joint statement from Foreign Ministers Lavrov and Renkov, Moscow appears to be internally divided. Analysis suggests a pragmatic calculation prioritizing maintaining a positive relationship with the US, particularly under a potential second Trump administration, over supporting Venezuela. Russian commentators have even expressed envy over the efficiency of the US operation, contrasting it with Russia’s own struggles in Ukraine. Analyst Theodore Koulanov highlighted that Venezuela is a secondary issue compared to securing a favorable outcome in Ukraine. This pragmatic approach extends to previous instances, such as Russia’s neutrality during Israeli actions against Iran. The Kremlin’s focus is on maintaining channels with Washington, even if it means distancing itself from allies like Venezuela.

2. Ukrainian Security Guarantees and Diplomatic Efforts

A meeting in Kyiv on Saturday, attended by Ukrainian officials and representatives from the “coalition of the willing,” focused on future security guarantees for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy explicitly stated that these guarantees must include the physical presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory, specifically citing the UK and France as essential for peace. This demand is likely to face resistance from some quarters. A 20-point peace plan discussed with Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago remains incomplete, but the issue of military presence is central to its viability. Zelenskyy acknowledged the need for parliamentary approval in European countries, even if leaders are willing to commit troops. The meeting included 18 European participants in person and US participation via video link. Zelenskyy also held a conversation with Keir Starmer, discussing diplomatic progress and achieving justice for Russia’s actions.

3. Battlefield Updates and Military Tactics

On the ground, Russia has resumed ground combat operations in the Kharkiv region, employing its characteristic tactic of small teams (2-3 people) attempting to establish larger groups. This contrasts with the larger group tactics observed in the Zaporizhzhia area. Reports of Russian advances near Kupiansk, specifically around the village of Podi (10km southeast of Kupiansk), remain unconfirmed. Ukraine’s air assault forces refuted Russian claims of capturing the town of Rodinsk in Donetsk Oblast, maintaining control of the town and its outskirts.

4. Sanctions and Economic Pressure

95 individuals, including citizens of Russia and China, along with 70 companies, were sanctioned on Saturday. These sanctions include asset freezes, trade restrictions, transit flight suspensions, and revocation of state honors. The stated aim is to disrupt Russia’s military-industrial complex and limit its weapons production capacity. Some of these entities may also face sanctions from the European Union. This marks the first statement released by the President’s office under the new chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.

5. Ukrainian Government Reshuffle and Appointments

Significant personnel changes are underway within the Ukrainian government. Oleksandr Ivenko, the current head of foreign intelligence, will replace Kyrylo Budanov as head of the HUR (military intelligence). Mykola Fedorov, the current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation, has been proposed as the new Defense Minister, pending parliamentary approval. Fedrov’s experience with drone technology and digitization is highlighted as valuable. Outgoing Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will take on a new role within the government. Other appointments include new governors for Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Poltava, Dnipro, Petrokivske, and Chornobyl Oblasts. Lieutenant General Serhiy Deyneko will temporarily lead the State Border Guard Service.

6. Internal Security Concerns in Ukraine & Russian Activity

A Ukrainian soldier was injured in Kyiv by a car bomb, treated as a terror attack by Ukrainian authorities. Russia launched hundreds of drones at Ukraine over the weekend, resulting in deaths and injuries, including damage to a hospital in Kyiv. Ukrainian military intelligence reported an explosion at a Russian missile brigade in Krasnodar Krai on December 26th, causing unspecified casualties. Russian air defenses claimed to have intercepted 132 Ukrainian drones, including 11 over Moscow Oblast. A drone attack also targeted the Eniga factory in Lipetsk Oblast, a producer of components for Russian missiles.

7. The US-Venezuela Situation and the Concept of Preemptive Military Action

Dom Nichols, the podcast host, offered a personal analysis of the US operation in Venezuela, arguing against a simplistic comparison with Russia’s actions in Ukraine. He contends that international law is not a rigid framework but a reflection of power dynamics. He suggests that the US action may have been justified based on necessity and proportionality, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine lacks similar justification. He emphasizes the importance of responsible conduct after any preemptive military action, including addressing the consequences and avoiding setting a negative precedent. He explicitly condemned any potential US military action against Denmark over Greenland.

8. The Case of Ulia Lemanko and Russian Repression

Ulia Lemanko, a Ukrainian weightlifting champion, was sentenced to 19 years in prison in Moscow on charges of plotting sabotage and assassinations. She did not deny the accusations but stated her conscience was clear. Her case highlights the increasing repression within Russia and the use of politically motivated trials.

9. International Support for Ukraine: Latvia’s Vehicle Donations

Latvia is donating 21 confiscated vehicles to Ukraine, seized from drunk drivers, for use by the defense ministry, National Guard, and a hospital in Kharkiv. This demonstrates continued international support for Ukraine.

10. Concerns Regarding Raman Kadirov’s Health

Reports suggest Chechen leader Raman Kadirov may be experiencing health issues. His recent public appearances have raised concerns, with observations of gauntness, red-rimmed eyes, and the use of a walking stick. This raises questions about potential succession issues within Chechnya and the Kremlin’s plans for the region.

Notable Quotes:

• President Zelenskyy: "Undoubtedly, the military presence is important to us, and undoubtedly not everyone is ready for this, but the presence is one of the most important factors, and even the existence of the coalition of the willing depends on whether they are ready to step up their presence."
• Ulia Lemanko: "Maybe I'm making my position worse with my words, but my honor and conscience are more important to me. I did what I considered necessary."
• Donald Trump: "We don't believe that happened now that we've been able to check." (Referring to the alleged drone strike on his residence)
• Theodore Koulanov (Russian Analyst): "…the Kremlin values its relationship with the US with Trump far higher than it did with Maduro or with Venezuela…"

Technical Terms:

• HUR: (Hlavne Upravlinnya Rozvidky) – Ukrainian military intelligence.
• R2P: (Responsibility to Protect) – A global political norm that seeks to ensure states’ respect for their populations’ human rights.
• Brics: (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) – An association of five major emerging economies.
• ISW: (Institute for the Study of War) – A US-based think tank providing daily assessments of the war in Ukraine.
• NATO: (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) – A military alliance between North American and European countries.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

This episode of “Ukraine the Latest” paints a picture of a complex and evolving situation. While Russia’s response to the US operation in Venezuela reveals a pragmatic prioritization of relations with Washington, Ukraine continues to push for stronger security guarantees, including a physical foreign military presence. The battlefield remains relatively static, but Ukrainian forces face ongoing challenges. The Ukrainian government is undergoing significant personnel changes, signaling a potential shift in strategy. The discussion surrounding preemptive military action highlights the ambiguities of international law and the importance of responsible conduct. Finally, concerns about the health of Raman Kadirov add another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape. The podcast underscores the interconnectedness of global events and the ongoing struggle for security and stability in Ukraine.