Oliver Stuenkel on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit

Key Concepts:

• Multilateralism as a pathway for a new world order
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit outcomes
• Global Governance Initiative
• SCO Development Bank
• US tariffs and their impact on international relations
• Hedging and diversification of partnerships
• Autonomy through diversification
• BRICS and lessons learned

1. SCO Summit Highlights and Outcomes:

• Wangi's Closing Speech: Chinese Foreign Minister Wangi and the SCO Secretary General called the summit "very fruitful" and the "most productive" in SCO's history.
• Eight Major Outcomes: Highlighted, including the SCO development strategy charting the block's agenda for the next 10 years (previous one was 10 years ago).
• Joint Declaration: All members signed the joint declaration after the largest summit in SCO's history, allowing for in-depth conversations.
• Multilateralism and Anti-Terrorism: Wangi emphasized multilateralism and tackling terrorism, referencing the upcoming military parade in Beijing marking 80 years since the end of World War II, calling on nations to "stand on the right side of history" and cooperate due to the rise of anti-globalism.

2. Global Governance Initiative:

• Definition: Launched by the Chinese Prime Minister, it's an international framework for countries to work together for a "fairer and more reasonable international system" (Mr. C's definition).
• Principles: Upholding sovereign equality, respecting international law, putting people first, upholding multilateralism, and being action-oriented in agreements.

3. SCO Development Bank and Future Plans:

• SCO Development Bank: The process of launching the SCO Development Bank is moving forward after being proposed over 10 years ago but stalled due to Russia's initial disagreement. Consensus has now been reached.
• SCO Development Plan: Members approved the SCO development plan for the next 10 years, agreeing to strengthen people-to-people exchanges, support the multilateral trading system, and enhance counterterrorism activities.
• New Platforms: The block will establish four British platforms in energy, a digital economy, and an AI center.

4. Geopolitical Context and US Influence:

• Projection of Power: The summit showed a projection of power among China, Russia, and India, nations that have borne the brunt of US sanctions and tariffs.
• India-China Relations: Prime Minister Modi's visit to China after seven years indicates an opportunity for China and India to project options amid US tariffs undermining long-standing US strategy to embrace India.
• Filling the Vacuum: The SCO and China are projecting stability, rules, norms, and predictable commercial/diplomatic relations, potentially filling a vacuum left by the US.

5. Hedging and Diversification:

• Diversifying Partnerships: Countries are seeking to hedge and diversify partnerships, as seen in BRICS, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia.
• Multi-Alignment: Countries are utilizing new platforms not to move away from the US or Europe but to have as many options as possible, requiring a functioning global governance system.
• Predictable Trade Rules: Countries understand that achieving development goals is difficult without predictable trade rules due to confusion over Washington's tariff regime.

6. Autonomy and Redundancy:

• Autonomy Through Diversification: Countries seek autonomy through diversification, having redundant value chains and not depending on a single actor for military, commercial, or energy needs.
• Change in International System Conception: Countries are constantly thinking about how trouble in one trade or diplomatic relationship can affect their core interests, leading them to join these platforms.

7. Challenges and Consensus:

• Difficulty in Finding Consensus: Adding more members to these groupings makes it more difficult to find consensus.
• Structural Differences: Structural differences between India and China persist despite erratic US behavior.

8. BRICS Lessons for SCO:

• Focus on Key Areas: The SCO can learn from BRICS by focusing on key areas that matter most and where tangible achievements can be made beyond broad declarations.
• Avoid Over-Expansion: BRICS has expanded too much, with numerous high-level meetings in various areas, some of which are not crucial.

9. Notable Quotes:

• Wangi: Nations should "stand on the right side of history" and cooperate.
• Mr. C's definition of the Global Governance Initiative: an international framework for countries to work together for a "fairer and more reasonable international system."

10. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• Multilateralism: The principle of organizing relations between three or more states.
• Anti-globalism: Opposition to the increase in the global power and influence of businesses, especially multinational corporations.
• Hedging: Reducing the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.
• Diversification: A risk management technique that mixes a wide variety of investments within a portfolio.
• Value Chains: The whole series of activities that create and build value at every step.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The SCO summit highlighted China's push for multilateralism and a new world order, underscored by the Global Governance Initiative and the SCO Development Bank. The summit occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, particularly US tariffs, which have prompted countries like India to diversify partnerships and seek autonomy. The SCO can learn from BRICS's experiences by focusing on key areas and avoiding over-expansion to achieve tangible results. The underlying theme is a shift towards multi-alignment and hedging strategies as nations navigate an increasingly uncertain international landscape.