Oil, revolution and ayatollahs: how Iran went from great power to rogue state

Key Concepts

• Constitutional Revolution (1906): The foundational movement for modern Iranian statehood, modeled on British parliamentary constitutionalism.
• Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist): The ideological framework established by Ayatollah Khomeini, centralizing authority in a single supreme religious jurist.
• Anglo-Russian Convention (1907): A treaty dividing Iran into spheres of influence, often cited as a betrayal of Iranian democratic aspirations by Western powers.
• Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC): The British-controlled entity whose discovery of oil in 1908 fundamentally shifted Iran’s strategic importance and fueled long-term anti-colonial sentiment.
• 1953 Coup: The removal of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, orchestrated by the CIA and MI6, a pivotal event in Iranian political mythology regarding Western interference.
• White Revolution: The Shah’s 1960s modernization program that achieved significant economic growth but failed to provide political liberalization, ultimately alienating the populace.
• Extractive State: A characterization of the current Islamic Republic as a regime that consumes the nation's wealth and infrastructure to maintain power rather than investing in development.

1. Historical Evolution of the Iranian State

Professor Ali Ansari outlines the 19th-century origins of modern Iranian political thought, noting that intellectuals were deeply influenced by British concepts of liberty and parliamentary systems. The 1906 Constitutional Revolution was the first attempt to restrain the monarchy and establish the rule of law. However, this movement was undermined by the 1907 Anglo-Russian Convention, which prioritized European power politics over Iranian sovereignty.

Following the chaos of World War I, the Qajar dynasty collapsed, leading to the rise of Reza Khan (Reza Shah). Ansari argues that the interwar period (1921–1941) successfully fulfilled the "state-building" aspects of the Constitutional Revolution—creating a modern bureaucracy, education system, and judiciary—but failed to deliver on democratic promises.

2. The 1953 Crisis and the Pahlavi Era

The nationalization of the oil industry under Mohammad Mosaddegh is identified as a defining moment of 20th-century Iranian history. Ansari clarifies that while the 1953 coup was a joint CIA/MI6 project, it was also exacerbated by Mosaddegh’s own political isolation and high-handedness.

The subsequent reign of Mohammad Reza Shah (the younger Pahlavi) is described as a period of dramatic economic growth (the "White Revolution") that was ultimately undone by the Shah’s failure to allow political participation. His obsession with suppressing communists led him to ignore the growing influence of the religious establishment, which eventually spearheaded the 1979 Revolution.

3. The Islamic Republic: Ideology and Structure

The 1979 Revolution replaced monarchical despotism with a "religious despotism" based on Khomeini’s Velayat-e Faqih. Ansari explains that the Islamic Republic is a hybrid system:

• The Republican Element: Modeled on the French Fifth Republic (parliament, president, assembly).
• The Islamic Element: The Supreme Leader acts as the ultimate arbiter, creating a fundamental tension between the two systems.

The regime consolidated power through two major events: the 1979 US Embassy hostage crisis and the 8-year Iran-Iraq War. These events allowed the leadership to frame the state as a besieged entity, justifying the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the suppression of internal dissent.

4. The Khamenei Era and Current State

Ansari characterizes the rule of Ali Khamenei as "catastrophic," arguing that the state has become an "extractive kleptocracy." He notes that the regime has spent decades and trillions of dollars on ideological projects—such as the nuclear program—at the expense of the country's economic and political infrastructure.

Key Arguments:

• Mythology vs. History: Much of the Iranian political narrative is built on "primary colors" (evil empires vs. plucky Iranians) rather than historical nuance.
• Generational Divide: While the leadership remains fixated on the mythology of the Iran-Iraq War, younger generations (Gen Z) are largely disconnected from these historical grievances and are more focused on modern liberty and economic stability.
• The Future: Ansari suggests that the Islamic Republic cannot continue its current trajectory without significant reform. He remains "cautiously optimistic" that the Iranian people’s long-standing desire for a constitutional settlement and the rule of law will eventually be realized.

Synthesis

The history of modern Iran is defined by a recurring, unfulfilled struggle for constitutionalism and liberty. From the 1906 Revolution to the present, Iranian society has repeatedly sought to restrain absolute power, only to be thwarted by internal autocracy and external geopolitical interference. The current regime, having dismantled the "Republican" aspects of its own constitution, faces a profound crisis of legitimacy, with its survival increasingly dependent on ideological rigidity rather than the needs of its citizens.