Oil Just Hit My Buy Zone (I'm Buying Now): Natural Gas, Silver & Gold

Key Concepts

• Technical Analysis: Using historical price patterns, support/resistance levels, and chart formations (gap fills, wedges, cup and handle) to predict future price movements.
• Gap Fill: A technical phenomenon where a price "gap" (a jump in price with no trading in between) is eventually retraced, often acting as a strong support or resistance level.
• Shotgun Approach (Dollar Cost Averaging): A strategy of entering a position in small increments at various price levels rather than attempting to time the exact bottom.
• CapEx (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by companies to acquire or upgrade physical assets; in this context, specifically AI-related spending.
• Seasonality: The tendency for commodity prices to fluctuate based on the time of year (e.g., natural gas rising in anticipation of winter).

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1. Oil Market Analysis

• Current Status: Oil has experienced a sharp decline following the easing of US-Iran hostilities.
• Technical Outlook:
  • The current price is near a "gap window." Soloway anticipates a "gap fill" down to $67 per barrel, which he identifies as a powerful support level.
  • Strategy: He is using a "shotgun approach," nibbling on long positions at current levels ($69.50) and planning to add more at $67 and $65.
  • Short-term Target: A bounce back to the $80 level (a 10–15% gain).
  • Long-term Bearish Thesis: A full retrace of previous gains is historically bearish. He expects a bounce followed by a breakdown toward $55, and potentially below $50 if a recession hits in 2027.
• Fundamental Drivers:
  • Bullish factors: Global strategic reserve replenishment and current demand levels.
  • Bearish factors: Potential slowdown in AI-related capital expenditure, increased supply from Iran/Russia, and the eventual economic impact of a recession.

2. Natural Gas Analysis

• Pattern: The chart shows a "wedge pattern" forming, which is squeezing price action.
• Trigger: A breakout above $3.35 is the technical signal for a move toward $4.30.
• Seasonality: Soloway notes that institutional money often rotates into natural gas during the summer months (July–September) in anticipation of winter demand, often pushing prices up before the general public realizes the trend.

3. Gold and Silver

• Gold: Currently bouncing off a key support level between $3,900 and $4,000.
  • Bullish Scenario: A breakout above the current trend line would signal further upside.
  • Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold current levels could lead to a drop to the $3,500–$3,600 range.
• Silver: Soloway maintains a long-term target of $54 for accumulation, noting that he has successfully predicted the decline from levels above $100, $80, and $70, despite market skepticism.

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4. Methodology and Philosophy

• The "Realist" Perspective: Soloway emphasizes that market participants often suffer from "book bias" (being emotionally attached to a position). He argues that traders must ignore personal bias and follow the probability indicated by the charts.
• Risk Management: He advocates for incremental entry (dollar-cost averaging) to mitigate the risk of failing to pick the exact market bottom.
• Quote: "The market doesn't care if I'm long or short. The market's going to do what it wants to do... Why would you bet against probability?"

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5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The video outlines a cautious, technically-driven approach to commodities. Soloway views the current oil market as a short-term "bounce" opportunity within a larger, long-term bearish trend driven by macroeconomic factors like AI spending exhaustion and potential recessionary pressures. Natural gas is presented as a seasonal play with a specific breakout trigger, while precious metals are being monitored for key support levels to initiate long-term accumulation. The overarching takeaway is to prioritize technical probability over emotional sentiment and to use incremental buying strategies to navigate volatile markets.