October 27th, 2025 LIVE Stocks, Options & Futures Trading with Pros! (Market Open, Last Call & More)

Key Concepts

• Weekend Markets
• Covered Call Strategy
• Nikkei 50,000
• AI-Generated Watchlist (Critique)
• Bernie Madoff Fraud Claim (HSBC)
• Petrofac Administration
• Rare Earth Stocks
• US-China Trade Deal
• Government Shutdown (ACA Subsidies)
• Private Credit vs. Public Banks
• Jamie Dimon's "Cockroach" Quote
• Invoice Financing (Ponzi 101)
• Late Cycle Indicators
• US Stock Buybacks
• Funko (Netflix tie-in)
• Intel's Turnaround
• Taiwan Sovereignty (Trump's comments)
• Alcoa (Stealth AI Play, Asset Play, Power Bottleneck Unlocker)
• Spread Betting
• Three-Day Rule (Netflix)
• Gartner Hype Cycle (Biotech)
• S&P 500 Inverted Head and Shoulders
• Animal Spirits (Meme Stocks)
• Short Covering
• Options Market Dynamics (Tail Wagging the Dog)
• Bitcoin 200-Day Moving Average
• Correction in Time vs. Correction in Price
• Crypto Leverage Risks
• MicroStrategy (Leveraged Bitcoin Play)
• Biotech Sector (ARKG, XBI)
• COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment)
• Fed Blackout Window
• US Economic Warfare (Sanctions on Russia)
• Shadow Tankers
• Backwardation (Oil)
• Gold as Multi-Polarity Currency (China's Strategy)
• Gold Standard (Critique)
• Brazil's Role in US-China Conflict (Soy/Corn)
• Copper as Economic Indicator
• Speculative Price Extreme (Gold)

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The broadcast opens on Monday, October 27th, with hosts Rich and Luke discussing their weekends, including Halloween parties and a "secret stag" in Mallorca. They note the recent clock change, which caused some market confusion regarding opening times.

Market Overview and Host Portfolios

The hosts observe a quiet weekend in the markets, but highlight "free money" opportunities on weekend markets, which were originally built in response to the Greek debt crisis and Brexit. Rich mentions a personal win on the NASDAQ, buying at 25,500 and seeing it rise 166 points after positive headlines.

Rich provides an update on his portfolio:

• Long Positions: Pfizer, Aluma, Marvel Technology, Nvidia (from Thursday), Oracle (currently down, bought at 304, now 287), Apple (with short calls), Dogecoin, Solana, Ether, Bitcoin (from the weekend suite of cryptos), and other tech stocks.
• Short Positions: S&P 500 calls (specifically 6800s, 6850s, 7000s, 7200s, in "absolute size"), Starbucks, and Robin Hood calls at the 160 level. He estimates being down about £25,000 on the S&P calls but expects to be "paid back every single day" due to time decay (theta) if the market moves sideways, employing a covered call strategy.

Upcoming Show Segments

The show's agenda includes a "Guess the Chart" segment, Maturin's "Trade of the Week" (who has been active on Twitter), and an appearance by G McKenzie, described as Rich's "trading nemesis" due to differing market perspectives.

Overnight Market Action and Key Movers

• Japan (Nikkei): The Nikkei 225 index surged past 50,000 for the first time ever, shortly after breaking 40,000, marking a significant move. This was noted as a "race" against the Dow, which the Nikkei won. A 20% crash in April (attributed to "tariff man") preceded this rally.
• General Market Sentiment: Equities are pointing higher. Gold is down to 4,070, 10% off its highs, trading "logically" as risk is priced out. Oil is fairly unchanged, and silver is following gold. Bitcoin is up 1.9%.
• Commodities (China Trade Deal Impact): Soybeans, copper, and aluminium are all moving higher, driven by expectations of increased Chinese demand following a positive US-China trade deal framework.
• UK Corporate News:
  • Two Sisters: The founder of the UK's largest chicken producer is complaining about government focus on private equity, warning of a potential food crisis due to neglect of the food chain.
  • Bloomberg Watchlist (Critique): A Bloomberg-generated watchlist for the market open, based on the tariff story, included carmakers (Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen), drinks manufacturers (Diageo, Cointreau, Pernod Ricard), shipping stocks (Maersk, Hapag), miners (Rio Tinto), and luxury goods. Rich criticizes the inclusion of drinks and shipping companies as "AI-generated slop" because they are not directly sensitive to a US-China trade deal in the way suggested.
  • HSBC: The bank has set aside $1.1 billion as a provision for a Bernie Madoff fraud claim, following a lost court case. This represents a notable hit for the $172 billion bank.
  • Burberry: Tipped as a "buy" in the Daily Mail's Midas column, aligning with the luxury sector's potential benefit from improved trade sentiment.
  • GSK: Acquired rights for a prostate cancer drug, which is seen as a positive development.
  • Petrofac: Applied to the High Court to appoint administrators for Petrafac Limited, an Aberdeen-based company, with 2,000 jobs at risk. Shares have been suspended for a long time, reflecting a "shocker" in the North Sea oil and gas sector, partly blamed on government policy.
  • Greatland Gold: Reported positive quarterly activities, producing 80,000 ounces of gold and 3,400 ounces of copper, with a closing cash balance of A$750 million.
  • Rare Earth Stocks: US rare earth stocks like MP Materials and UK-based Pensana are expected to take a hit due to the US-China trade framework, as China is a major player in this sector.
  • China-Australia: Agreed to de-escalate trade concerns, leading to a rise in the Australian dollar.
• Trump's Asia Tour: Trump has reportedly signed deals in Malaysia (covering Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia), expects a deal with Brazil, but remains deadlocked with South Korea. He is heading to Japan.
• JP Morgan AI Chatbot: JP Morgan is offering its staff an AI chatbot to assist with writing performance reviews.
• JP Morgan Trading Floor: A new trading floor in New York is described as having four screens per person, creating a dense, "scary" environment with limited vertical vision.
• Market Open Calls: GSK is called up 1%, Dwin up (strong performance, special dividend), Great Portland up 2% (sold a building), and GGP down 1% (due to gold price).

Studio Interruption and Major Earnings Ahead

A fire alarm briefly interrupts the live broadcast, but the hosts continue, highlighting critical earnings reports for the week:

• Wednesday: Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet (after close).
• Thursday: Amazon, Apple.
• Other Notable Earnings: Boeing (paraded in trade deals), HSBC (tomorrow, news released ahead of results).

Early Market Movers (Post-Open)

• Best Performers: GSK (+1.4%), Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (+1.2%), Barclays (+1.1%), Rolls-Royce (up to £11.30).
• Negative Side: Ocado, Centrica, Diageo (-1.7% – contradicting Bloomberg's AI-generated watchlist), Persimmon (-1%), Wetherspoon (-1%), HSBC (-0.9% on Madoff provision).
• European Markets: Porsche, ASML, Siemens, Volkswagen are up. LVMH (-1.2% – also contradicting Bloomberg's AI), Kering, and Deutsche Bank are down.
• Currencies: Yen approaching 153 against the dollar.
• Commodities: Oil down 20 basis points, silver down 1.4% (lost the "five handle"), copper up $521.

Trade of the Week (Chris Beum)

• Review of Last Week (Long DAX): Rated 5/10. The DAX had a good start but lagged behind record highs in US, Japanese, and UK indices, finding resistance around 24,400. Factors like the ECB meeting, lack of big tech, and indirect exposure to US-China talks might have contributed. Despite this, it's still holding above the stop loss, with rising stochastics and a potential bullish MACD crossover suggesting future upside.
• This Week (Short Crude Oil): Beum recommends going short crude oil, following a "sell the rally" trend observed since late July. Crude bounced from $56 to $62 but failed to break above the 50-day moving average and the $62 resistance level. The target is $56, with a stop loss at $62.50, anticipating a renewal of the downward trend.

Chart Requests and Technical Analysis (Chris Beum)

• Gold: Experienced a "fun week" with sellers returning, bringing it back to $4,060 (a level previously celebrated on the way up, now a concern). The wide gap between price and the 50-day moving average proved significant. Sellers are in charge, with support around $4,000. It's in a pullback within an uptrend, suggesting patience to wait for a definitive bottom.
• Hecla Mining (Gold Miner): Showed months of sideways consolidation before a "spectacular rally," now pulling back similar to gold. Bulls would want to see it test the 50-day moving average or the September 18th low of $10.60 as support. A pullback was overdue.
• Saga: Exhibited an "excellent rally," acting as a "safe haven from trade wars." It rallies, drifts, and rallies again. The 260 level is a key support. Stochastics are moving higher, with a potential target of 300 (a key area from 2022).
• Pensana (Rare Earths): A news-driven stock in an uptrend, experienced a dramatic pullback to its 50-day moving average (180p). It's now potentially forming a higher low, moving from a "going down" to a "going sideways" phase. A break above 140 would signal further upside.
• AMD (Chip Stock): Showed a "stellar recovery" after a difficult period. The price is currently "overextended," making buying dips challenging. It's reached new record/long-term highs, with a strong technical perspective.
• US 500 (S&P): Reached all-time record highs, gapping higher as trade war risk subsided. Described as a "quiet, relentless rally" driven by strong earnings beats (strongest in four years). The advanced decline line also hit new record highs, indicating no underlying weakness.
• Vodafone: A "boring" telecom stock, primarily bought for its dividend. It found strong support around the 84 level and has since broken higher, maintaining an uptrend.

Gar McKenzie: S&P, Bitcoin, Netflix, Tesla, Biotech, and More

• S&P 500: Gar notes the S&P is "on fire" with a big gap up due to progress in US-China trade talks and an upcoming Trump-Xi meeting. It broke through 6750, which he identifies as the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. He projects a target of 6950, derived by adding the 200-point height of the pattern to the neckline. He believes "animal spirits are alive and well," catching shorts off guard.
• Meme Stocks and Bubbles: Gar observes that "froth" is coming out of speculative areas like Quantum computing and rare earth stocks (e.g., MP Materials, down 30%), as well as gold shares, which had gone "absolutely parabolic." This suggests a healthier market environment for the S&P 500.
• Shorting Dynamics: He explains that markets often fall faster than they rise. Shorting into strength is difficult; it's better to wait for "evidence that the crack has happened" (e.g., a big daily reversal). Short covering can drive prices up, creating a "vacuum" when buyers are exhausted, leading to rapid drops.
• Options Trading: Retail options trading, particularly in "meme stocks" like Beyond Meat (and previously GameStop), is distorting market moves. Small retail players buying call options can force market makers to buy the underlying stock to hedge, creating a "tail wagging the dog" scenario, especially in stocks with high short interest.
• Netflix (Post-Earnings): Netflix experienced a significant sell-off after earnings and news of a tax dispute in Brazil. Gar applies his "Three-Day Rule":
  1. Day 1: Shock news, massive move down.
  2. Day 2: Further selling (hedge funds, long funds exiting).
  3. Day 3: Stability begins.
  4. Day 4 (or later): Look for a bounce, with the price trading above the previous day's high, indicating seller exhaustion and buyer control. Netflix is currently ticking these boxes, trading near its 200-day moving average, and he expects a 5-6% bounce. He contrasts this with "12-day rule" situations (e.g., BP oil spill, Volkswagen emissions scandal) where fundamental changes lead to prolonged selling.
• Tesla: Despite "not amazing" earnings, Tesla initially traded down 4% but recovered to close positive, indicating market optimism. Gar suggests the market is looking forward to future innovations like robo-taxis and humanoid robots. He identifies $450 as overhead resistance and advises against being bearish.
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin looks strong, having traded down to and held its 200-day moving average (around $108,000), which aligns with a long-term uptrend. This period of "sideways consolidation" is a "correction in time," building energy for the next upward move. Ethereum and Solana also show similar strength.
• Crypto Losses: Gar recalls massive liquidations (up to $10 billion) in the crypto market a few weekends prior, triggered by Donald Trump's tariff announcements on China, particularly affecting altcoins and leveraged positions. He emphasizes the lesson of avoiding leverage in volatile instruments.
• IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) & Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC): These are options for buying physical Bitcoin via stocks and shares accounts, as FCA regulations restrict leveraged crypto trading for retail clients.
• MicroStrategy (Strategy): A director bought $2.3 million worth of MicroStrategy stock, which has pulled back to an important uptrend support zone around $280. As a "leveraged play on Bitcoin," it's currently trading at a 10% discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV) compared to Bitcoin's value, making it an interesting buy if crypto continues to rise.
• Biotech Sector (ARKG, XBI): Gar notes significant insider buying in biotech companies. He applies the "Gartner Hype Cycle" framework: an initial "peak of inflated expectations" (2021) followed by a crash, a "lengthy basing period" (last year or two), and now entering a "true growth story" phase. Technologies like genetic editing, combined with AI, are driving this medium-term optimism.
• S&P 500 Daily Options: Rich suggests a "cheap way to play" the S&P's potential rise with daily expiry options, such as a 6855/6870 1x2 for three ticks, given positive trade talks and upcoming tech earnings.
• Coinbase: Coinbase has pulled back and held long-term uptrend support at $320, showing signs of turning up. It could be forming a triangular structure, building for an upside breakout, and would benefit from a leg higher in the crypto space.

Overtime: Economic Data, Fed, Government Shutdown, Oil, and Precious Metals

• Economic Data: The team discusses the upcoming CPI report (tomorrow, 7:30 AM Central), which is crucial for the Social Security's Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA). The S&P is pricing in a 40-point move in either direction.
• Intel Earnings: Intel is up 6% (2 points, from $38 to $40) after beating EPS (23 cents vs. 1 cent expected) and revenue ($13.65 billion vs. $13.14 billion expected).
• IBM/Tesla Reversals: IBM and Tesla both initially sold off after earnings but reversed to close higher, suggesting the market is hesitant to lean heavily in one direction before key economic data.
• Fed Outlook: There's a high probability (nearly 99%) of a 25 basis point rate cut next week. The market is more dovish than the Fed for next year, though the probability of a December cut has slightly reduced (8% chance of staying at 25bps). The CPI report could influence December's decision.
• Government Shutdown: The shutdown is linked to Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium subsidies. Prediction markets suggest a 42% chance it will last beyond November 16th.
  • Impact: Prolonged shutdown would cause pain for federal workers (multiple missed paychecks) and lead to significant increases (20-75%) in ACA premiums.
  • Market Response: The market has not shown significant concern, even "liking" the shutdown initially as it implies more rate cuts (bad news = good news for Fed easing). It's seen as a disinflationary event that hits economic growth.
• Healthcare Sector (XLV, United Healthcare): United Healthcare has earnings on the 28th and a DOJ hearing on November 4th. The healthcare ETF (XLV) has low implied volatility. A resolution to the shutdown might benefit healthcare stocks, especially if they are down, but market movements are more likely to be risk-on/risk-off driven by broader economic data.
• Oil (Micro Crude): The US has sanctioned Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil, threatening to cut off China and India from the Western banking system if they accept these tankers. This caused an unexpected surge in oil prices and strengthening backwardation, indicating immediate supply concerns.
  • Circumvention: Russia is adept at circumventing sanctions (e.g., shadow tankers).
  • Escalation: This is an escalation to pressure Russia and potentially India. India's cooperation is key, and a deal with the US (e.g., access to US exports) could sway them. Europeans are increasingly aligned with derisking from Russian oil.
  • Thomas's Trade: Thomas sold a call spread (62.75/63.25, 15 days out) expecting a quick retracement, as fundamentals haven't changed, and Q1-Q3 2024 are projected to be surplus/well-supplied markets. He expects oil to return to $60 or upper $50s.
• Precious Metals (Platinum, Gold, Silver): All three were up over 1.5% today.
  • Ilias's View (Bearish): He is less optimistic, viewing the "lousy bounce" as bearish. He argues that gold should be surging given the US sanctions and China's efforts to build a parallel monetary system backed by gold to circumvent the dollar. The fact that gold isn't rallying more strongly suggests weakness. He critiques the gold standard, noting gold's finite nature is a weakness for currency but a strength for backstopping transactions in a multi-polarity currency system. He sees a "speculative price extreme" and expects a significant decline, potentially to $3500 (the April rangetop), if historical patterns (9-week rally followed by a 19% decline) repeat.
  • Thomas's View (Long-term Bullish): Thomas sees the current move as a technical bounce but remains long-term bullish on gold and silver.
• Copper: Unlike precious metals, copper is seen as a purely economic indicator. It's rising despite US-China tensions, the government shutdown, and economic concerns, which is considered bullish. Thomas plans to go long once copper clears its October highs around $5.2.

CPI/PMI Data Outlook (Tomorrow)

• Thomas: Expects CPI data to be "inside" the 40-point S&P range and for the market to move "up."
• Mike: Expects CPI data to be "inside" the range and for the market to move "down."
• Ilias: Expects CPI data to be "inside" the range and for the market to move "down," citing "weekend risk" (sanctions, Trump-Xi meeting, Fed meeting next week) which could concentrate selling. He notes the bar for a "hot" CPI is already high.

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Synthesis/Conclusion

The broadcast highlights a complex market environment characterized by strong bullish sentiment in major indices (S&P 500, Nikkei) driven by positive US-China trade developments and robust tech earnings, despite underlying concerns about private credit, government shutdowns, and geopolitical tensions. While some speculative "froth" is being worked off in meme stocks and gold, the overall narrative remains positive for equities. The discussion emphasizes the importance of technical analysis, such as the "Three-Day Rule" for post-earnings trading and identifying chart patterns like inverted head and shoulders. The hosts also delve into the strategic implications of US sanctions on Russian oil and China's long-term efforts to establish a gold-backed parallel financial system, which could reshape global trade and currency dynamics. Upcoming CPI data and major tech earnings are poised to be significant market drivers, with a general expectation of continued upward momentum, albeit with potential for short-term pullbacks and volatility.