Nvidia Earnings Ahead, SpaceX Faces Another Setback | Bloomberg Technology 5/28/2025

Key Concepts

NVIDIA earnings, China restrictions, AI infrastructure buildout, hyperscaler capex, Okta's conservative outlook, cybersecurity spending, YouTube's shift to TV, Apple's gaming app, SpaceX setbacks, Navitas' partnership with NVIDIA, gallium nitride chips.

NVIDIA Earnings and AI Landscape

• Main Topic: NVIDIA's earnings expectations and the broader AI market.
• Key Points:
  • Investors anticipate a strong quarter driven by the GB-200 ramp-up.
  • The quarter is expected to be "noisy" due to China-related uncertainties.
  • The H-20 export ban and potential redesigned chip for China are critical factors.
  • Focus should be on the second half of the year, the transition, and clarity around the new China chip.
  • Outlook for 2026 from Jensen Huang is highly desired.
  • Margins have been under pressure, and commentary on returning to the mid or low 70s by Q4 would be positive.
• Arguments/Perspectives:
  • Short-term noise versus long-term AI theme impact.
  • Geopolitics countering the AI bubble.
• Supporting Evidence:
  • NVIDIA stock performance: rebounded 41% since April lows but flat YTD.
• Examples:
  • Robotaxis and humanoid robotics as additional growth areas for NVIDIA chips.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Jensen Huang: "I told everybody what I am doing for five years so they can make better plans."
• Technical Terms:
  • GB-200: A specific NVIDIA product.
  • H-20: An NVIDIA chip subject to export bans.
• Logical Connections:
  • NVIDIA's performance is tied to the overall AI infrastructure buildout and hyperscaler capex.
• Data/Statistics:
  • NVIDIA stock rebounded 41% since April lows but flat YTD.
• Synthesis: NVIDIA's earnings are a macro-level event, with short-term noise due to China but long-term potential driven by AI. The key is the continued demand for AI infrastructure and NVIDIA's ability to innovate and expand its total addressable market.

Okta's Outlook and Identity Management

• Main Topic: Okta's financial guidance and the role of identity management in the AI era.
• Key Points:
  • Okta provided a conservative fiscal guide due to uncertainty with tariff and trade policy in the short term.
  • Optimism remains for the medium to long term.
  • AI is a tailwind for identity and access management, as machines increasingly access information.
  • Okta helps ensure computers have the right access to data.
  • Public sector agencies are seeing robust demand for Okta's services.
• Arguments/Perspectives:
  • The need to balance defending existing markets with investing in future innovation.
• Examples:
  • Customer support and sales reps using AI agents that need access to real customer data.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Okta CEO Todd McKinnon: "If you want security and efficiency, we’re a required thing."
• Technical Terms:
  • Identity and Access Management (IAM): Managing digital identities and controlling access to resources.
• Logical Connections:
  • Okta's growth is tied to the increasing adoption of cloud computing and AI, which require secure identity management.
• Data/Statistics:
  • Okta was founded in 2009.
  • Okta has $2.6 billion in revenue and is growing quickly.
  • In Q1, four of Okta's top 10 deals were with public sector agencies.
• Synthesis: Okta is taking a prudent approach to its outlook due to short-term uncertainties, but the company is well-positioned to benefit from the long-term growth of AI and cloud computing, which are driving demand for secure identity management solutions.

Apple's Gaming App

• Main Topic: Apple's upcoming gaming app and its strategy in the gaming market.
• Key Points:
  • Apple is launching a unified place for gamers on all Apple devices to launch games, view achievements, and connect with other players.
  • The app will feature new editorial content.
  • Apple is not expected to become a major publisher of in-house games.
  • Gaming is a super important part of Apple's revenue from the App Store.
• Arguments/Perspectives:
  • Apple is creating a marketplace and way to monetize access through other people’s software and titles.
• Examples:
  • Apple bought a two-person game studio, I believe the app is called Stinky Sasquatch, one of the more popular games on the Apple Arcade subscription service.
• Logical Connections:
  • Apple's gaming app is designed to increase engagement and monetization within the App Store.
• Data/Statistics:
  • 2/3 of Apple revenue from the App Store, probably north of $12 billion to $13 billion a year comes from games.
• Synthesis: Apple is leveraging its existing ecosystem and user base to create a centralized gaming experience, aiming to increase engagement and revenue within the App Store.

YouTube's Shift to TV

• Main Topic: YouTube's evolution into a platform for longer-form video content and its presence in the living room.
• Key Points:
  • Television is now the primary device people use to watch YouTube.
  • The length of videos people are watching is getting longer.
  • YouTube is increasingly hosting scripted programming.
• Arguments/Perspectives:
  • Debate over whether there is quality programming on YouTube.
• Examples:
  • Three-hour Joe Rogan podcasts and 25-minute sitcoms.
  • "Hot Ones" and "Mr. Beast" as examples of popular YouTube formats.
• Logical Connections:
  • YouTube's shift to TV is driven by changes in user behavior and the increasing availability of high-quality content.
• Synthesis: YouTube is successfully transitioning from a short-form video platform to a destination for longer-form content, including scripted programming, and is becoming a centerpiece of the living room entertainment experience.

Navitas and Gallium Nitride Chips

• Main Topic: Navitas' partnership with NVIDIA and the role of gallium nitride chips in data centers.
• Key Points:
  • Navitas partnered with NVIDIA, sending shares soaring.
  • Gallium nitride chips offer more power and energy efficiency for data centers.
  • AI is driving the need for more powerful and energy-efficient data centers.
  • Navitas is working with NVIDIA on the development of 800-volt data centers.
• Arguments/Perspectives:
  • The need for geographically diverse manufacturing footprint to deal with whatever the geopolitics are whatever the localization needs are.
• Examples:
  • Gallium nitride chips are used in EVs and data centers.
• Technical Terms:
  • Gallium Nitride (GaN): A semiconductor material used in power electronics.
  • Silicon Carbide (SiC): Another semiconductor material used in power electronics.
• Logical Connections:
  • Navitas' partnership with NVIDIA is driven by the increasing demand for power and energy efficiency in AI-powered data centers.
• Data/Statistics:
  • Navitas' market value tripled after the NVIDIA partnership announcement.
• Synthesis: Navitas is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of AI and the increasing demand for energy-efficient data centers, thanks to its partnership with NVIDIA and its expertise in gallium nitride chip technology.

Other News and Updates

• Shein: Considering listing in Hong Kong after facing supply chain and labor scrutiny in the US.
• Instacart: Named Chris Rodgers as incoming CEO, replacing Cimo who will remain chair of the board.
• Elon Musk/Doge: Faces a lawsuit claiming he wielded illegal power in cutting federal jobs and spending under Doge.
• SpaceX: Rocket exploded mid-flight, marking the third consecutive setback for the company.
• NATO: Proposed including cybersecurity as part of its new defense-related spending target.
• Palo Alto Networks: Focuses on technology innovation and actionable security outcomes, advocating for a daily dashboard showing civilian federal agencies' response to attacks.
• Deep Seek: Upgraded its AI model, propelling the startup to global prominence.
• Salesforce: Customers are paying for products and looking for the $8 billion of Informatica.