$NVDA FINAL 2025 TRADES! HAPPY NEW YEAR 🥳 | LIVE Dec 31

Key Concepts

• AI Dominance & Nvidia: Nvidia continues to lead in AI technology with significant performance advantages (Blackwell architecture) and substantial future demand visibility ($500B in AI spending by 2025-2026).
• Geopolitical Impacts on Commodities: China’s export controls on silver, tungsten, and antimony are disrupting markets and highlighting geopolitical risks.
• Small & Mid-Cap Volatility: Small and mid-cap stocks offer potential for high returns but require diligent analysis and risk management.
• Regulatory Scrutiny of Tech: Meta and Disney face legal challenges related to data privacy and protection of children online (COPPA).
• Cloud Computing & Government AI: AWS is making a massive investment ($50B) to provide secure AI infrastructure for the US federal government.

Trade the Pool & Limited Risk Trading

The broadcast began with an advertisement for Trade the Pool, a platform offering funded trading with limited downside risk. Traders can utilize the platform’s capital and retain 70% of profits, aiming to lower the financial barriers to entry.

Nvidia & the AI Landscape

Nvidia remains a central focus, with analysts (BA) predicting the Blackwell architecture will deliver a 10-15x performance improvement over Hopper. This reinforces Nvidia’s technological lead, even amidst China’s efforts to develop competitive AI chips. Nvidia has visibility into approximately $500 billion in cumulative AI spending for 2025-2026, indicating strong future demand. The company maintains high gross margins (currently around 70%, previously reaching the low 80s). Reports surfaced of Nvidia being in advanced discussions to acquire AI21 Labs (Israel) for $2-3 billion, primarily for its ~200 specialized AI researchers and expertise, aligning with Nvidia’s expansion plans in Israel (planned 10,000 employee R&D campus). AI21 Labs previously received investment from Nvidia and Alphabet.

Silver & China’s Export Controls

China’s tightening of export controls on silver, tungsten, and antimony, elevating silver to a “strategic material,” caused significant market distortion. Buyers offered $8-10/oz above spot prices, and Canadian miner Kuya Silver confirmed inbound offers from Chinese and Indian buyers. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased margin requirements for metals futures, adding pressure to leveraged positions. While China only produces ~10-20% of global silver, the move signals broader geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.

Stock Specific Analysis & Trading Observations

• Tesla (TSLA): Michael Burry clarified he is not currently shorting Tesla, despite calling the stock “ridiculously overvalued.” Tesla’s publicly released sales estimate projects ~1.6 million deliveries for 2025, an 8% year-over-year decline, marking a potential second consecutive annual decline. The stock has been in a range since failing to break $500, with sellers dominant.
• Amazon (AMZN): Consolidating within a range, with potential for a breakout or reversion.
• Meta (META): A beautiful long-term chart with a strong uptrend, currently consolidating.
• Disney (DIS): Trading in a range since 2022, with potential for a continuation of the trend.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Short-term price action showed a "steady grinding bid" followed by a reversion, with the market holding VWAP.
• Silver (SLV): The price action was described as volatile, with a breakout above $50 followed by aggressive selling. The $64 area was identified as a potential short-term demand zone.

Regulatory & Legal Developments

• Meta Lawsuit: The US Virgin Islands filed a lawsuit against Meta, alleging the company knowingly profits from scam-related advertising and fails to protect users, violating COPPA. Internal Meta projections suggest ~10% of 2024 revenue (~$16 billion) may be linked to scam/prohibited ads. Meta denies the allegations.
• Disney Settlement: Disney settled a case with the Department of Justice over alleged violations of COPPA, agreeing to a $10 million payment and restrictions on YouTube operations. The DOJ accused Disney of collecting personal information from children and serving targeted ads without proper parental consent.

AWS & Government AI Infrastructure

Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced a $50 billion investment to build a dedicated AI and high-performance computing infrastructure for the US federal government. This initiative focuses on secure, US-based AI and cloud capacity, adding 1.3 gigawatts of new capacity across AWS Top Secret, AWS Secret, and AWS Government Cloud regions. Federal agencies will gain access to AWS’s full AI suite (SageMaker, Bedrock), in-house chips (Trainium), and Nvidia’s AI infrastructure (including Blackwell). Access to models like Anthropic’s Claude, Amazon’s Nova, and custom-deployed models will be provided.

Conclusion

The broadcast highlighted Nvidia’s continued dominance in the AI space, the growing geopolitical risks impacting commodity markets (silver), and the increasing regulatory scrutiny faced by major tech companies (Meta, Disney). The significant investment by AWS in government AI infrastructure underscores the strategic importance of AI for national security and economic competitiveness. The discussion consistently emphasized the importance of diligent analysis, risk management, and adapting to evolving market conditions, particularly within the volatile small and mid-cap sectors. The overall takeaway is that while opportunities exist, navigating the current market requires a nuanced understanding of both technological advancements and broader geopolitical and regulatory trends.