NUS senior research fellow Jean-Loup Samaan on boiling Israel-Iran tensions

Key Concepts

• Iran-Israel conflict escalation
• Potential Iranian retaliation
• U.S. involvement and support for Israel
• Nuclear talks and the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)
• Proxy actors (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis)
• Iranian regime's need to project strength

1. Context of the Escalation

• The situation is escalating due to Israel's strikes targeting military and nuclear sites in Iran, resulting in the deaths of high-ranking Iranian military officials.
• Iran has vowed revenge, demanding a swift response.

2. Perspectives on Potential Talks

• Donald Trump suggests putting pressure on Iran to facilitate talks, but the Israeli government doesn't necessarily expect the operation to lead to renewed negotiations.
• Iran's initial response indicates a lack of interest in resuming talks, as the authoritarian regime needs to project strength to its population.
• The priority for Iran is not necessarily the resumption of nuclear talks, especially after the recent attacks.

3. U.S. Support for Israel

• The U.S. is providing support for Israel's defense against potential Iranian retaliation, similar to actions taken in October of the previous year.
• This includes deploying U.S. forces and missile defense systems in the region.
• If Israel escalates further, particularly targeting deeply concealed facilities, it may require specific types of bombs that only the U.S. can provide.
• As of the discussion, there's no indication of direct American involvement in the attacks.
• If Iran targets U.S. personnel or bases, the American position may change, leading to more open involvement in the conflict.

4. Scale of the Current Conflict

• The current situation is different from previous exchanges between Iran and Israel, which were often tit-for-tat responses to maintain face.
• This time, the scale is much larger, and the potential for a sustained and larger response is significant.

5. Impact of the Israeli Attack

• The Israeli attack targeted the core of the Iranian regime, including the ballistic missile program, which is a matter of national pride.
• This is a more significant operation compared to limited actions seen in the past.

6. Iran's Response Options and Limitations

• It's unclear if Iran has the ability to respond effectively to this type of operation.
• Iran could mobilize proxy actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis, but their firepower may not be sufficient to inflict severe damage on Israel.
• Iran is in a tough spot, needing to retaliate to save face but lacking clear options for a proportionate response.

7. Potential for Escalation

• The situation is relatively uncharted, with the potential for further escalation depending on Iran's response and the involvement of other actors.

8. Notable Quotes

• "[Iran] replied in a statement saying that this is a declaration of war."
• "This is an operation that is targeting the core off the the regime, not the limited operations in the way that we saw last year."

9. Technical Terms

• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): The Iran nuclear deal.
• Proxy actors: Non-state actors supported by a state to achieve its objectives (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis).

10. Synthesis/Conclusion

The situation between Iran and Israel is highly volatile and escalating, triggered by Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. While Iran has vowed revenge, its options for a proportionate response are limited, potentially leading to the involvement of proxy actors or further escalation. The U.S. is currently providing support for Israel's defense, but its involvement could deepen if Iran targets American personnel or bases. The future trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain, with the potential for a larger and more sustained response than previous exchanges.