November 2025 Mastermind Jordan Roy Byrne

Key Concepts

• Secular Bull Market: A long-term upward trend in asset prices, typically lasting for years or decades.
• Cyclical Bull/Bear Market: Shorter-term upward or downward trends within a secular trend.
• Technical Analysis: A method of forecasting future price movements based on historical price and volume data.
• Chartered Market Technician (CMT): A professional designation for individuals who have demonstrated expertise in technical analysis.
• Gold/Silver Ratio: The ratio of the price of gold to the price of silver, often used as an indicator of market sentiment.
• Cup and Handle Pattern: A bullish technical chart pattern that suggests a continuation of an uptrend.
• Moving Average: A technical indicator that smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price.
• Dollar-Cost Averaging: A strategy of investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions.
• Fund Manager Survey: A survey that gauges the sentiment and allocation decisions of professional fund managers.
• Monetary Base: The total amount of a currency that is either in general circulation in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits held in the central bank's reserves.
• Open Pit Mining: A method of extracting minerals from an open excavation in the ground.
• Resource Estimate: An estimation of the quantity and grade of mineral deposits.
• Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS): A study that assesses the technical and economic viability of a mining project.

Big Picture Macro Market View

Jordan Roy Burn presents a macro market view that draws parallels between the current market environment and the mid-to-late 1960s. He argues that the secular bear market in bonds, which began two to three years ago, is a key indicator. This is contrasted with historical stock market crashes (1929, 1987, 2008, 2020), which primarily occurred during secular bull markets in bonds. The presence of a secular bull market in bonds historically provided an easy alternative for capital exiting stocks. However, during the 1965-1982 secular bear market in bonds, this was not the case, leading to a different market dynamic.

Comparison to the 1960s and 1970s

• Bonds: The speaker identifies the current period as mirroring the mid-to-late 1960s, where bonds entered a secular bear market (1965-1982). This is evidenced by the 80-month moving average losing ground.
• Gold Stocks: In the 1960s, gold stocks experienced an incredible breakout in 1964 after a 27-year base. This is likened to the breakout in gold last year, serving as an early indicator of a new secular bull market in precious metals.
• Stock Market: The secular bear market in stocks did not begin until 1969 in the 1960s/70s period. Currently, both gold and precious metals are in a secular bull market, while the stock market is still in a secular bull, similar to the mid-to-late 1960s. However, the speaker anticipates that the secular bear market in bonds will eventually impact the general economy and stock market, as it did in the 1970s.
• Secular Bull Market in Gold: The speaker refutes the notion that gold has been in a bull market for 10 years, stating that the secular bull is still in its early phases, as significant capital has not yet exited the stock market into gold.

Gold Against a 60/40 Portfolio as a Leading Indicator

A more refined indicator than gold against the stock market is presented: gold against a 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds).

• Breakout Signal: Vertical lines on the chart indicate breakout signals at the end of 1971, the end of 2001, and earlier in the current year. These signals confirm a new secular bull market.
• Historical Performance: Following these signals in 1972 and 2002, secular bull markets in gold lasted for another 8-9 years. The recent signal suggests a similar prolonged bull market.
• Cup and Handle Pattern: Gold's breakout against the 60/40 portfolio occurred after breaking out of an 11-13 year cup and handle pattern, indicating a significant and potentially long-lasting upward move. This is not expected to be a one or two-year event, but rather a 5-10 year trend, or even more if a rapid surge occurs.

Historical Gold Breakouts and Current Analogues

The presentation analyzes three major historical breakouts in gold:

1. 1972 Breakout: Described as the "greatest breakout of all time," this occurred after three peaks and was the only other time gold broke out to a new all-time high from a long base since the Civil War. This breakout coincided with a commodity price breakout.
2. 2005 Breakout: A different type of breakout, where gold did not reach a new all-time high.
3. Current Breakout: The current breakout is seen as more similar to the 1972 event, though with a lag and not as strong.

The speaker emphasizes that the current situation is more likely to follow the pattern of the 1972 breakout than others.

Short and Medium-Term Corrections and Projections

• Intermediate Term Peak: The sector is believed to have hit an intermediate-term peak in October.
• Correction Analogues: Historical corrections after gold breakouts are analyzed, with comparisons to the 1970s and 2006. These corrections typically involve a significant move lower followed by time consolidation.
• 200-Day Moving Average: A common pattern is for gold to bottom near or below the 200-day moving average after a breakout and correction. The speaker suggests that if the current correction continues, the 200-day moving average will catch up, which is a normal part of the process.
• Potential Lows: Based on averages of past corrections, potential lows are projected around $3,600 for gold. A further decline below $3,900 could present a buying opportunity, as corrections often have three legs (down, up, down), with the majority of price damage occurring in the first leg.
• Price Projections:
  • Following the 1972 breakout pattern, gold could climb above $9,000 per ounce.
  • An average of the 1972 and 2005 breakouts suggests a target of approximately $7,000 per ounce within 15 months.
  • The speaker acknowledges these targets sound extreme but are consistent with historical bull market behavior. The current move is stronger than the 2005 breakout but not as strong as the 1972 breakout.

Drivers of the Gold Rally

The rally is driven by gold's performance against the stock market, which is a significant component (60%) of the gold vs. 60/40 portfolio calculation.

• Gold vs. S&P 500: A breakout in gold against the S&P 500 occurred earlier in the year, powering the gold vs. 60/40 breakout. This indicates capital is flowing out of stocks and into gold.
• Long-Term Potential: The gold vs. S&P 500 ratio, going back to the Civil War, shows that gold has historically underperformed stocks. However, a breakout above 0.65-0.70 on this ratio, as seen in the 1970s, signifies a significant shift.
• Secular Peak Projections: Based on historical ratios (e.g., S&P 500 at 6,000 times 5), potential secular peaks for gold could be in the $25,000-$30,000 range.
• Monetary Base Backing: Calculations based on backing the US monetary base with gold suggest prices over $20,000 per ounce are plausible, aligning with historical levels of backing (e.g., 40% backing implies ~$30,000).

Silver's Potential and Technical Analysis

• Gold-Silver Ratio: Historically, bottoms in the gold-silver ratio have occurred around 14-15x. If gold reaches $20,000 and the ratio falls below 20, silver could reach four-digit figures.
• Physical Silver: The speaker recommends buying physical silver monthly as financial insurance, noting the secular bull market has years to run.
• ETF Allocation:
  • Gold ETFs: Current allocation to gold ETFs is around 2%, significantly lower than the 8% seen at the 2011 secular peak. This suggests substantial room for growth.
  • Silver ETFs: Allocation to silver ETFs is even lower, around 0.3%, below previous peaks. This indicates a massive underownership.
• Silver Breakout: Silver is breaking out of a 45-year long base, which the speaker calls the "second greatest breakout of all time."
• Technical Patterns:
  • Cup and Handle: While the silver cup and handle pattern technically failed due to an excessive retracement in the handle, silver is within a larger, more bullish 45-year base.
  • Measured Upside Target: A breakout above $54-$55 in silver suggests a measured upside target of approximately $96.
• Silver vs. 60/40 Portfolio: Silver has broken out of a 10-year base against the 60/40 portfolio, indicating capital can flow from conventional investments into silver. This breakout is seen as a "monster double bottom."
• Performance After All-Time Highs: Historically, silver has doubled in price within 7-11 months after breaking to a new all-time high. This pattern is expected to repeat, with a potential target of $100.
• Cyclical Moves in Silver: Analyzing historical cyclical moves, the speaker notes that silver tends to accelerate significantly once it breaks above $50. The current move is positioned in the middle of these historical cycles.
• Cyclical Bull Market Duration: The speaker suggests the current cyclical bull market may have only 2-3 years left, rather than 4-5, especially if it follows the faster, sharper moves seen in the 1970s.

Investing in Junior Gold and Silver Stocks

The speaker's approach to junior companies has shifted towards finding quality companies at good values, rather than solely focusing on exploration companies with a higher gambling element.

• Investment Philosophy: Buy good companies at good values. This means valuing companies based on current prices or margins, assuming higher gold ($4,000) and silver ($40-$45) prices.
• Company Size:
  • Silver Companies: Focus on projects with at least 100 million ounces of silver, capable of producing 8-10 million ounces per year.
  • Gold Companies: Focus on producers of 100,000 ounces per year, with projects yielding 3-5 million ounces.
• Focus on Producers: The speaker primarily focuses on producers that are building mines and growing production, as this leads to more predictable re-ratings. Exploration companies offer more upside but are more unpredictable.
• Portfolio Management: The philosophy is "buy, hold, and trim." Trading in and out is discouraged. Trimming should be done position by position when assets become overextended or overvalued.

Stock Pick: Unico Silver

• Company Profile: Unico Silver (ASX: UNP) is an Australian company planning to list in the US.
• Valuation: Trading below a $200 million market cap with approximately $44 million in cash.
• Projects: Two open-pit projects in Argentina with a combined 175 million ounces of silver equivalent (counting only silver and gold).
  • Wawe Project: Currently has 70 million ounces, with potential to grow to 150-200 million ounces. A resource update is expected soon.
  • Sarah Leon Project: Contains base metals in addition to silver. An oxide resource of 45 million ounces is present, with potential for deeper sulfide resources.
• Production Target: Targeting 10 million ounces of production per year, primarily from Wawe.
• Analogy: Likened to the next Aburra Silver.
• Recommendation: Considered a buy at current levels due to good value and massive upside potential, even if the entry point isn't perfect.

Next Big Opportunity: Energy Stocks

• Technical Setup: The S&P energy sector has a 20-year base, setting up for a significant breakout.
• Historical Weighting: The energy sector's weight in the market is at an all-time low, approaching levels seen during the COVID crash.
• Fund Manager Allocation: A Bank of America global fund manager survey shows a very low percentage of managers are underweight energy stocks, indicating a lack of current investment.
• Potential: The speaker believes energy stocks are poised for a huge move higher, although he has not yet invested in specific stocks.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The presentation concludes with a discussion on the cyclical bull market's potential end and the importance of focusing on buying quality companies at good values.

• Cyclical Bull Market End: A significant blow-off top in precious metals would signal the end of the cyclical bull market, necessitating exiting stock positions. The cyclical bull market may have only 2-3 years remaining.
• Investment Strategy: The speaker emphasizes that making the most money comes from buying the best stocks at the best values and holding them, rather than trying to time the market or trade in and out.
• Entry Points: It is not necessary to achieve a perfect entry point (exact bottom or top). Taking a significant portion of the middle of a clear trend is a successful trading strategy.
• Energy Sector: The energy sector is identified as another significant opportunity due to its technical setup and historical underinvestment.