'Nobody wants war' but it could still happen, German Military Historian tells DW | DW News

Key Concepts

• Potential for escalation of conflict in Europe
• NATO readiness and response to Russian aggression
• Germany's role in European defense
• Hybrid warfare tactics
• Deterrence as a strategy to prevent war
• European unity and leadership in defense
• Recalibration of Western defense architecture

Potential for Conflict and the "Last Summer in Peace"

• Worst-case scenario: The historian, Zuna Nitel, clarifies that his statement about the "last summer in peace" is a possible, worst-case scenario, not a definitive prediction.
• Factors contributing to the scenario:
  • Destructive power towards NATO.
  • Potential domestic troubles in countries like Germany.
  • A negative peace treaty in Ukraine that frees Putin's forces.
  • The upcoming Zapad maneuvers in Belarus.
• Baltic states' concerns: Nitel mentions that his friends in Lithuania and the Baltic states are very worried about the Zapad maneuvers, recalling that the 2021 maneuvers served as a pretext for the full invasion of Ukraine.
• Urgency for action: Nitel emphasizes the need for Western states, NATO, and Germany to speed up their preparations and avoid complacency.
• Artificial debate: He dismisses the debate about Russia potentially attacking NATO in 2029 as artificial, arguing that Putin might not wait until NATO is ready if he has plans.
• State of "intimate peace": Nitel argues that Europe is not truly at peace but in an "intimate" state, requiring preparation and acceleration of defense efforts.

Historical Parallels and Putin's Rationale

• Historical patterns: Nitel draws parallels to the periods leading up to World War I and World War II, citing navy scares, threats, and debates about how to react to revisionist powers.
• Uniqueness of contemporary times: He cautions against simply copying historical solutions, emphasizing the need to find unique solutions for the present situation.
• Putin's rationale: Nitel believes Putin is not "mad" but operates with his own rationale, which differs from Western norms.
• Clash of ideologies: From Putin's perspective, Ukraine's alignment with the West and development of democracy pose a threat to Russia's internal order.
• Russian hegemony: Nitel interprets Putin's goals as aiming to replace American hegemony in Europe with Russian influence, not necessarily through annexation but through domination.
• Debate on avoiding war: Nitel acknowledges the debate in Germany about whether the war in Ukraine could have been avoided and whether NATO bears any responsibility.

Fragmentation of the West and Rational Action for Europe

• Threat of fragmentation: The interview highlights the real-time threat of fragmentation within the West and questioning of NATO's relevance.
• Rational action: Nitel argues that the rational action for Europe, particularly the next German government, is to become capable of reacting to unforeseen events.
• Strengthening European defense: He criticizes the slow progress in strengthening European defense since 2014, despite numerous discussions and plans.
• Germany's role: Nitel emphasizes that Germany, as the largest and wealthiest country in Europe, must be at the forefront of European and NATO efforts, not lagging behind.

Mindset and Preparedness in Germany

• Public perception: While there's a perception of Germans as pacifists, Nitel points to opinion polls showing high approval (85%) of the German armed forces (Bundeswehr).
• Political divide: He acknowledges the political divide, with extremist parties on both sides holding different views, but argues that the majority of Germans have historically supported the Bundeswehr and defense.
• Adaptation of the cultural elite: Nitel observes that the cultural elite, traditionally more pacifist, is adapting to the changing security landscape, citing the Green Party's shift as an example.
• Political leadership: He believes the problem lies more with politicians' perception of the German population as anti-military, which is not entirely accurate.

Reforms and Leadership Requirements for Germany

• Dysfunctional Bundeswehr: Nitel argues that the Bundeswehr remains dysfunctional due to a long history of peace and limited combat experience, requiring reforms in structure, personnel, and mindset.
• Cabinet subcommittee on defense: He suggests a cabinet subcommittee on defense, following the British example, to ensure that defense reforms are a priority for the entire government, not just the Minister of Defense.
• Chancellor's role: Nitel stresses that the new German chancellor must understand the importance of defense and actively push cabinet colleagues to support reforms.
• Germany's focus: He believes Germany's focus should be on land forces to contribute significantly to the defense of NATO's eastern flank, along with air defense and drones.
• Technological investment: Nitel emphasizes the need for the Bundeswehr to invest in new technology and adapt to modern warfare.

Lessons from Ukraine and the Current Landscape

• Bureaucracy and implementation: Nitel notes that while there's discussion about adapting to drone warfare and other lessons from Ukraine, the challenge is translating these ideas into practical changes for the troops due to bureaucracy.
• Reforming the transfer process: He calls for reforming the transfer process to ensure that soldiers receive the necessary training and equipment to adapt to 21st-century warfare.
• Challenging landscape: Nitel describes the current landscape as a massive challenge for the West, with economic disruptions, questioning of NATO, and Russia's military activities.
• Recalibration of Western defense: He sees a recalibration of Western defense architecture, with an uncertain outcome regarding the United States' role in NATO.
• Possible scenarios: Nitel outlines three possible scenarios: a war with Russia, pressure from Russia without a willingness to fight, or a period of peace with a rearmed Europe and continued US involvement.
• Need for leadership: He emphasizes the need for united European leadership to navigate the crisis and advance European integration, drawing a parallel to Churchill's "finest hour."

Hybrid Warfare and Potential Tests by Russia

• Arctic as a potential hotspot: Nitel acknowledges the Arctic as one potential area of conflict, along with cyberspace and the Baltic states.
• Testing NATO's resolve: He suggests that Russia might test NATO's resolve by deploying forces to areas like Svalbard or by other provocative actions.
• Opportunistic approach: Nitel believes Putin is opportunistic and his next steps will depend on the messages and reactions from the West.
• Hybrid warfare tactics: He expects Russia to continue using hybrid warfare tactics, such as disrupting sea cables and undermining Western societies.
• Potential for escalation: Nitel raises the possibility of a Russian incursion into Estonia as a potential trigger for a larger conflict.
• Deterrence as prevention: He argues that a clear message of deterrence, stating that any crossing of the line will be met with war, is the best way to prevent war.
• European responsibility: Nitel concludes that Europe must take responsibility for its own security and not rely solely on the United States.
• Cultural change: He emphasizes the need for cultural change in Germany and Europe to support a stronger defense posture.
• United European front: Nitel expresses hope for a united European front, working together to address the challenges posed by Russia.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The interview paints a concerning picture of the current geopolitical landscape, highlighting the potential for escalation of conflict in Europe and the need for a strong, united response from the West. The historian emphasizes the importance of Germany taking a leading role in strengthening European defense and adapting to modern warfare. He warns against complacency and calls for decisive action to deter Russian aggression and ensure peace in the future. The key takeaway is that Europe must recalibrate its approach to security, embrace its responsibility for its own defense, and present a united front to counter potential threats.