No call for reform: Amid nationwide protests, do Iranians envision new regime in free secular Iran?

Key Concepts

• Iranian Protests (2024): Nationwide demonstrations driven by economic hardship (soaring cost of living, high inflation, plummeting currency value).
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful military organization in Iran, implicated in shooting protesters and attacking hospitals.
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: The Supreme Leader of Iran, facing a potentially critical moment in his leadership.
• Reza Pahlavi: An exiled figure and potential opposition leader, with varying levels of support within Iran.
• Crackdown & Human Rights Violations: Security forces’ violent suppression of protests, including killings and attacks on medical facilities.
• Geopolitical Context: Influence of external factors like the US (Trump’s statements, potential intervention) and Israel, as well as the recent 12-day war impacting Iran’s position.

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Protests in Iran: A Deep Dive into the Current Crisis

This report details the ongoing protest movement in Iran, now in its 12th day, and analyzes the factors driving it, the government’s response, and potential future scenarios. The protests have spread to over 60 cities, fueled by economic grievances and a deep-seated dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic.

Economic Drivers & Public Dissatisfaction

The primary catalyst for the protests is the deteriorating economic situation in Iran. Specifically, the soaring cost of living, coupled with high inflation and the plummeting value of the Rial (Iranian currency), are driving widespread discontent. Polling data suggests that 92% of the Iranian population is dissatisfied with the current situation. Furthermore, surveys indicate that approximately 80% of Iranians would vote against the Islamic Republic in a free referendum, highlighting a fundamental rejection of the current political system. The economic pressures are exacerbated by the aftermath of recent conflicts and international sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States.

Incident in Ilam: Attack on a Hospital

France 24’s investigation, led by Shad Aljani, focused on a specific incident in Ilam, a city in the Kurdish region of western Iran. Between January 3rd and 4th, Iranian security forces attacked a hospital, firing shotguns and tear gas both inside and outside the facility. The operation aimed to detain injured protesters who sought medical treatment and to remove the bodies of those killed. Prior to the hospital attack, a peaceful protest in the nearby town of Araas was violently suppressed by security forces firing from a building belonging to the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). Videos verified by France 24 show at least three bodies lying on the ground, with subsequent footage showing continued gunfire and further casualties. The US State Department condemned the hospital raid as an “act of savagery” and announced an investigation, though similar incidents have occurred previously, including one at a Senena hospital in Tehran just days after the Ilam attack.

Government Response & Repression

The Iranian government’s response to the protests has been characterized by a severe crackdown. At least 36 protesters have been killed by security forces. While government officials express understanding of the protesters’ frustrations and acknowledge the economic difficulties, the reality on the ground is one of violent suppression. This pattern of targeting medical facilities, as seen in Ilam and Tehran, is not new, having been observed during previous protest waves in 2019 and 2022.

Political Analysis & Potential Scenarios

Amma Maliki, an assistant professor of political science at Tilburg University, provided further analysis. He emphasized the deeply repressive nature of the Islamic regime, drawing parallels to its interventions in Syria. Maliki noted that the current situation is particularly challenging for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, due to several factors:

• Weakened Regime: The regime is weakened by the recent 12-day war, with hundreds of generals and commanders killed.
• External Pressure: The potential for intervention from the United States and Israel adds to the regime’s vulnerability. Donald Trump’s direct threats against Iran have further destabilized the situation.
• Growing Dissatisfaction: The level of public dissatisfaction is increasing, with protesters demanding not just reform but regime change.
• Radicalization of Demands: Protesters are increasingly vocal in their calls for a complete overhaul of the political system.

Maliki highlighted a potential rift within the Iranian leadership, with some reformists potentially seeking to remove the Supreme Leader. However, ultimate control remains with Khamenei and the IRGC. He suggested that the current situation could mirror the “Venezuelan model,” implying a potential collapse of the regime.

The Role of the Opposition & Potential Leadership

The question of a credible opposition remains complex. Reza Pahlavi, an exiled figure, enjoys a degree of support within Iran, with approximately one-third of the population supporting him, one-third opposing him, and one-third undecided. However, he is not seen as a unifying figure, particularly among ethnic minorities like the Kurds. Maliki noted that Pahlavi could potentially gain more support if he can effectively organize and connect with different segments of the Iranian political spectrum.

Khamenei’s Options & Future Outlook

Maliki posited that Khamenei faces a critical juncture. He could attempt to portray himself as a leader of resistance, potentially seeking martyrdom, or he could consider surrendering to external pressures, such as those from the United States. However, given his age (86) and apparent disregard for public opinion, the latter option is considered less likely. The situation is highly volatile, and the future of the Islamic Republic remains uncertain.

Quote: “Unfortunately this is not strange to see these things because we know that how the how repressive is the Islamic regime in Iran.” – Amma Maliki, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Tilburg University.

Technical Terms:

• Rial: The official currency of Iran.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful military organization in Iran responsible for internal security and external operations.
• Geolocate: To identify the precise location of a photograph or video.
• Chronology: A sequential record of events.

Conclusion

The protests in Iran represent a significant challenge to the Islamic Republic. Driven by economic hardship and widespread dissatisfaction, the movement has spread across the country and is gaining momentum. The government’s violent response, coupled with internal divisions and external pressures, has created a highly unstable situation. The future of Iran remains uncertain, but the current crisis presents a potential turning point in the country’s history. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining whether the regime can survive or whether the protests will lead to fundamental political change.