No breakthrough in US-Russia talksーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts:

• Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks
• US-Drafted Peace Proposal
• Territorial Disputes (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Southern Regions)
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine (NATO Membership)
• Corruption Scandal in Ukraine
• US Administration's Russia Policy Differences
• Strategic City Capture (Popasna)

Summary:

1. US-Russia Peace Talks and US-Drafted Proposal

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with US Special Envoy Steve Witkov and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump, to discuss ending the fighting in Ukraine. The discussions are believed to have been based on a US-drafted peace proposal, the details of which have not been disclosed.

• Key Point: The US proposal reportedly began with 28 points, many perceived as favorable to Russia. However, due to strong objections from Ukraine and European countries, it was revised to 19 points, which reportedly displeased Moscow.

2. Core Sticking Points in Negotiations

The primary obstacles to a peace agreement revolve around two main issues:

• Territorial Status: The status of Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, specifically Crimea (annexed by Russia) and occupied areas in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia insists these must be recognized as Russian territories, while Ukraine considers them essential to its sovereignty and cannot accept such demands.
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Russia demands a permanent pledge that Ukraine will never join NATO. Ukraine argues this is impossible and instead seeks robust security assurances from Western countries.

3. Russian Military Advances

The Kremlin announced on Monday that its forces have captured the strategic city of Popasna in the Donetsk region. This capture is seen as a significant gain, providing a "springboard" for the Russian army to advance in any direction deemed promising by the general staff.

4. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Stance

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he is awaiting the results of the Moscow discussions and is prepared to receive all signals. He emphasized the importance of fairness and openness in the process, ensuring that no decisions are made "behind Ukraine's back" or without Ukraine's involvement in matters concerning its future. Zelenskyy also expressed readiness to hold talks with President Trump.

5. Impact of Ukraine's Corruption Scandal

A significant corruption scandal has led to the dismissal of the head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who was also a top negotiator in the peace talks. This development is considered extremely serious, especially at this sensitive time.

• Background: The scandal stems from a November incident where ministers resigned after allegedly siphoning off approximately $100 million from a state-owned nuclear energy company.
• Impact: This incident strikes at the core of the Zelenskyy administration, which has enjoyed strong public support. The scandal is deepening public discussion and could have significant consequences for Zelenskyy's political future.

6. US Administration's Internal Divisions on Russia Policy

The US approach to Russia is marked by internal differences:

• Pragmatic Approach: Figures like Vice President Mike Pence and Steve Witkov are advocating for a swift ceasefire and a pragmatic approach that involves certain concessions to Russia.
• Cautious Approach: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warns against being exploited by Moscow and stresses the need to defend Ukraine.
• President Trump's Preference: President Trump appears to favor Witkov's approach, driven by a desire to secure a deal quickly. This has raised concerns in Congress about the president potentially accommodating Russia too much.

7. Putin's Uncompromising Stance

President Putin has shown no signs of compromising and has not moderated his stance recently, as evidenced by the capture of Popasna.

8. Synthesis and Conclusion

The peace talks are in a critical juncture, caught between Ukraine's principles and the harsh strategic realities of the conflict. The corruption scandal within Ukraine adds another layer of complexity. While a meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy is likely, its nature and outcome will depend on the evolving situation. Zelenskyy may be compelled to make extremely difficult decisions, and this period is a critical juncture for Ukraine's leadership.