Ngành robot hình người của Trung Quốc: Tiềm năng lớn nhưng cần chứng minh giá trị thực | VTV24

Key Concepts

• Robot hình người (Humanoid Robots): Robots designed to resemble the human body in form and function.
• Trí tuệ nhân tạo hiện thân (Embodied AI): AI systems that have a physical body and can interact with the real world.
• Lực lượng sản xuất chất lượng mới (New Quality Productive Forces): A concept referring to advanced manufacturing and technological innovation driving economic growth.
• Bóng bóng đầu tư (Investment Bubble): A situation where asset prices rise rapidly due to speculation, detached from their intrinsic value.
• Học tăng cường (Reinforcement Learning): A type of machine learning where an agent learns to make decisions by taking actions in an environment to maximize a reward.

The Rise of Humanoid Robots in China: A Boom and Its Challenges

The year 2025 is poised to be a significant year for China's humanoid robot industry, marked by substantial investment and technological advancements. This surge follows impressive displays, such as the integration of 16 Unitre humanoid robots with professional dancers during the Chinese New Year festival earlier this year. These robots demonstrated remarkable agility, mimicking human movements like hip rotations and leg kicks, and even executing swift handkerchief twirls.

Market Growth and Government Support

The enthusiasm for humanoid robots is evident in the public's attention to their performances, ranging from playing musical instruments and dressing up to serving customers. This has fueled a massive investment wave, with the stock index tracking robot-related companies increasing by nearly 60% year-to-date, peaking in October. The Chinese government has recognized the strategic importance of this emerging technology, designating it as one of the six new economic growth drivers in its 2025-2030 development strategy. Businesses are optimistic, citing China's supply chain advantages, low costs, and abundant engineering talent as key factors for sustainable growth in the humanoid robot sector.

Technological Advancements and Market Projections

The field of embodied AI has experienced dream-like development in the past 6-12 months, with many science fiction concepts expected to become reality in the coming years. China's strong manufacturing capabilities, including core robot components, are a significant enabler of this progress. The market is anticipated to be vibrant, with major players, including automotive manufacturers seeking new growth avenues, entering the fray. Guangzhou Automobile Group (GC) and electric vehicle maker Xpeng have already unveiled their own robot models.

Industry consulting firm Leader Robot projects the Chinese humanoid robot market to reach 82 billion yuan (approximately 11.6 billion USD) in 2025, accounting for half of the global sales. The China Center for Economic Research and Development forecasts this market to surpass 1,000 billion yuan by 2035.

Risks of Rapid Development and Investment Bubbles

Despite the strong growth, the rapid expansion of this nascent industry raises concerns about its foundational stability. The transition from impressive demonstrations to widespread application in homes and factories remains a significant challenge. While around 100 companies globally were developing humanoid robots at the beginning of the year, China alone has seen 150 companies, largely tech startups with limited resources, enter the field in less than a year.

This rapid influx of investment has outpaced actual profitability. Over 70% of humanoid robot startups are reportedly operating at a loss, failing to meet market expectations. A prime example is NewBtech Robotics, a leading Chinese humanoid robot company. Despite its stock price increasing by over 106% this year, the company incurred a loss of 58.5 million USD in the first half of the year.

Government Warnings and Concerns

In response to these developments, Chinese authorities have issued warnings about potential investment bubbles. On November 27th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) acknowledged that new capital is driving innovation but cautioned against market saturation with similar products, which could stifle genuine R&D. Officials highlighted the perennial challenge faced by pioneering tech sectors: balancing growth speed with the risk of bubble formation, a risk that the humanoid robot sector is not immune to.

These cautionary remarks reflect Beijing's concern about excessive capital flowing into a sector identified as a new economic growth engine. This situation draws parallels with past over-investment in China's bike-sharing, electric vehicle, and chip manufacturing industries, which led to market corrections and the demise of many smaller businesses. The Chinese humanoid robot industry now stands at a critical juncture, with immense potential but the imperative to prove its real-world value for sustainable growth.

Towards Practical Applications and Industry Standards

Industry experts emphasize that product performance and practical applications will be crucial in determining if China's humanoid robot sector is ready for a transformative shift. To address this, companies are striving to integrate robots more closely into daily life. Last month, a humanoid robot utilizing reinforcement learning was deployed on a production line in Shanghai for the first time. In Hubei province, the first 7S humanoid robot store has opened, offering sales, services, training, and technological solutions, aiming to bring the industry closer to society. The goal is to move humanoid robots from laboratories to commercial spaces for public experience.

Regulators are committed to accelerating the development of industry standards, improving market entry and exit mechanisms, enhancing core technology research, and promoting resource sharing nationwide. These measures are expected to weed out weaker companies and prevent irrational investment. The NDRC stated, "In the future, we will continue to improve the standard system and accelerate the issuance and development of various standards in the humanoid robot industry chain. Previously, our robot standards followed international norms, but in the future, we aim to lead."

Future Outlook and Market Expectations

The recent government warnings are anticipated to consolidate leading companies and foster healthier competition. Citi Group forecasts exponential growth in humanoid robot production next year. However, concerns persist that the industry's production capacity is expanding much faster than actual demand. While optimistic scenarios predict humanoid robot output exceeding 100,000 units by 2026, Morgan Stanley offers a more conservative estimate of just 12,000 units.