Next Demand Surge: No Silver Available | Ed Steer

Key Concepts

• Price Manipulation: The deliberate control of market prices, particularly in precious metals, through artificial means.
• COMEX: Commodity Exchange, Inc., a major futures exchange where precious metals are traded.
• Paper Market vs. Physical Market: The distinction between trading financial instruments (futures, options) representing commodities and trading the actual physical commodities.
• Structural Deficit (Silver): A persistent imbalance where the demand for silver exceeds its available supply from mining and recycling.
• Above-Ground Inventories: Existing stockpiles of silver held by governments, institutions, and individuals.
• SLM Options Expiry: The expiration of options contracts on the iShares Silver Trust ETF, which can lead to significant price movements.
• Futures Expiry: The expiration of futures contracts, requiring physical delivery or cash settlement.
• Force Majeure: An unforeseeable circumstance that prevents someone from fulfilling a contract.
• Backwardation: A market condition where the price of a commodity for immediate delivery is higher than its price for future delivery, indicating tight supply.
• Lease Rates: The cost of borrowing precious metals, which can spike during periods of scarcity.
• Remonetization: The process by which gold and silver regain their status as forms of money.
• Preparedness: The act of having essential assets and resources in advance of a crisis or need.

Precious Metals Market Analysis and Price Manipulation

This discussion with Ed Steer, a long-time analyst of precious metals markets and a member of GATA.org, delves into the persistent manipulation of gold and silver prices, the underlying supply-demand dynamics, and the implications for investors.

The Pattern of Price Suppression

Ed Steer highlights a long-standing pattern in precious metals markets, observed for over 50 years since 1971. This pattern involves:

• Overnight Price Rises: During Far East trading hours, silver and gold prices tend to rise organically.
• Western Market Intervention: Upon the opening of the New York COMEX (around 6:00 AM EST) and the London morning gold fix, these gains are systematically "smashed" lower by what Steer identifies as "the boys in London and New York," referring to major US-based bullion banks.
• Classic Example: The transcript details a recent instance (November 19th, 2025) where silver rose over $2 and gold by approximately 70 points overnight, only to be sharply driven down at 10:15 AM in New York. Steer describes this as a "classic example" of this price management scheme.

The Role of Paper Markets and Illicit Behavior

Steer argues that the paper market, primarily through futures contracts, has controlled prices for over five decades. He asserts that this practice is "highly illegal" and that major bullion banks have been repeatedly fined and found guilty of rigging precious metals prices.

• Lack of Enforcement: Despite numerous fines, these entities continue their practices due to a lack of meaningful penalties and what Steer describes as widespread corruption within regulatory bodies like the CFTC and the judicial system.
• Captured Regulators: Steer believes that regulatory agencies and government powers have been "captured decades ago," leading them to "turn a blind eye" to these illicit activities.
• Fear of Financial System Collapse: A key motivation for this suppression, according to Steer, is the fear that allowing gold and silver prices to reach their true market value would trigger the collapse of the current paper financial system, as these metals are effectively "remonetizing themselves."

Stark Chart Differences: International vs. COMEX Open

The transcript emphasizes the dramatic divergence in price behavior between international trading hours and the COMEX open.

• International Trading: Characterized by forces battling on different sides, with price climbing "the wall of worry" and exhibiting "believable natural noise."
• COMEX Open: Marked by a "cliff event" and a "completely different" and "unnatural" behavior of the data set, suggesting deliberate intervention. Steer offers to provide an article he wrote on this topic for further detail.

The Critical Issue of Physical Supply and Demand

A central theme is the growing structural deficit in silver and its implications for future prices.

• Persistent Deficit: The Silver Institute has reported annual deficits ranging from 100 million to over 200 million ounces for the past five years, with the 2025 deficit estimated around 147-150 million ounces.
• Depletion of Inventories: Over the last five years, approximately 800 million ounces have been drawn from above-ground inventories. Steer warns that these inventories are finite and that people will eventually be unwilling to sell at current prices.
• London's Silver Shortage (October 2025): A significant event occurred in October 2025 when London "basically ran out of silver" available for sale at the prevailing price. This led to a spike in lease rates and backwardation, necessitating frantic shipments from COMEX and other exchanges, including Shanghai.
• Force Majeure Event: London experienced a "force majeure situation" where demand could not be met, highlighting a critical supply-demand imbalance.
• Limited Mine Supply: Annual mine production is around 820 million ounces, with only minor increases expected from new mines. This supply is insufficient to meet growing demand.
• Inevitable Price Surge: Steer predicts that this deficit will inevitably drive prices "to the moon," with potential triple-digit prices for silver, as physical supply becomes the sole determinant of price.

The Imminent Threat of Options and Futures Expiries

Steer points to upcoming events that will likely exacerbate price volatility and manipulation:

• SLV Options Expiry (Friday): A significant options expiry for the iShares Silver Trust ETF.
• COMEX Futures Expiry (Monday): Futures contracts for gold and silver on the COMEX will expire.
• December Deliveries: The first notice day for December deliveries is the following Wednesday, suggesting a period of intense paper market activity and potential manipulation.

The Futility of Timing the Market and the Importance of Preparedness

Steer strongly advises against trying to time purchases based on short-term price dips, especially given the physical availability issues.

• Historical Perspective: Steer, with over 25 years in the market, recalls agonizing over small price differences (e.g., $7.25 vs. $7.00 per ounce). He now views such concerns as trivial when the current price is $51 per ounce and future prices could reach $300-$500 per ounce.
• Physical Availability vs. Spot Price: During crises (COVID, Ukraine invasion, bank failures), the spot price of silver dropped to $11.88, but American Silver Eagles were selling for $24-$27. This illustrates that physical availability and premiums can diverge significantly from the spot price.
• "Be Prepared" Philosophy: Echoing the Boy Scout motto, Steer emphasizes the importance of acquiring assets like precious metals in advance of when they are needed. He likens it to hurricane preparedness, where last-minute scrambling for supplies is futile.
• Scarcity at the Point of Need: When demand is high, physical supply will be scarce, and retailers will be sold out. Even with significant funds, one may not be able to acquire these assets.
• Long-Term Investment: Steer advocates for being "all in" in precious metals, as he has been for 15 years, to avoid the scramble and anxiety when prices surge. He advises against "sweating the details" of timing and instead urges people to "just buy the stuff and hang on to it."

Ed Steer's Work and Subscription Newsletter

For those seeking detailed analysis, Ed Steer offers a subscription-based newsletter.

• Background: Steer began as a gold analyst for Doug Casey's Casey Research in 2007.
• Newsletter Content: He writes approximately 260 columns per year, covering market analysis in a fact-based manner.
• Access: Readers can find his website by Googling "Ed Steer, S E R, Ed Steer, Gold and Silver." A free column tab is available for sample content.
• Subscription Cost: The subscription is priced at $100 USD per year.

Miles Franklin Weekly Specials (November 17th - November 24th, 2025)

The transcript concludes with promotional offers from Miles Franklin:

• Backdated 1oz Gold Buffalo: $320 over spot per ounce.
• Pre-1933 MS63 $20 Liberty Coins: $150 over melt per coin.
• 1oz 2025 Silver Eagles: $7.85 over spot per ounce.

To order, customers can call 1-888-81-LIBERTY (1-888-815-4237), with availability after hours and on weekends.