New START nuclear weapon treaty expiresーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• New START Treaty: A bilateral treaty between the United States and Russia limiting strategic nuclear warheads, missiles, and bombers.
• Hibakusha: Japanese survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
• Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): Long-range missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads across continents.
• Nuclear Deterrence: The concept of maintaining a nuclear arsenal to discourage attack by another nuclear power.
• Near-Peer Nuclear Superpowers: Nations possessing nuclear capabilities comparable to the United States and Russia (currently identified as China).
• Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): A multilateral treaty prohibiting the development, testing, production, stockpiling, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons.

The Expiration of New START and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament

The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 29th, 2024, marks a critical juncture in global nuclear disarmament efforts. This treaty, signed in 2010 under the Obama administration, was the last remaining bilateral agreement limiting the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, collectively holding over 10,000 nuclear warheads. New START capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per party and limited deployed ICBMs, strategic bombers, and other delivery systems to 800. Russia unilaterally suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023 following the commencement of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the US allowed it to expire this year.

May Air Force Base and US Nuclear Readiness

May Air Force Base plays a central role in US nuclear strategy, being the sole US facility permanently hosting ICBMs and strategic bombers. The base operates continuously, maintaining a state of readiness to execute presidential orders. As stated in the report, “Everything we do as a nation from a defense standpoint is underwritten by what happens on this base right here.” This highlights the continued importance of a robust nuclear deterrent in US defense policy.

Historical Context: Obama’s Push for Disarmament

Former US President Barack Obama was a significant advocate for nuclear disarmament, receiving the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to create a world without nuclear weapons. He notably became the first sitting US president to visit Hiroshima in 2016 and meet with Hibakusha, the survivors of the atomic bombings. During this visit, Obama stated, “But among those nations like my own that hold nuclear stockpiles, we must have the courage to escape the logic of fear and pursue a world without them.” This demonstrates a historical commitment to disarmament, contrasting with current policy shifts.

The China Factor and Shifting US Strategy

A key factor driving the US decision to let New START expire is the rise of China as a nuclear power. A 2024 US Defense Department report estimates China possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads. Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized the necessity of including China in any future nuclear disarmament agreements, stating, “I’m going to have that conference primarily with China and Russia because those are the two that that really are out there.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, asserting that “true arms control…in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn't include China.”

Arguments for Increased US Nuclear Capabilities

Matthew Cronig, a former national security advisor under the Trump administration, argues that the US must enhance its nuclear capabilities to deter both Russia and China simultaneously. He posits that, “China is building up its nuclear forces. And so this means that for the first time in history, the United States will need to deter not just one but two nearpeer nuclear superpowers at the same time. And that is going to require require a larger nuclear force.” This perspective advocates for a shift away from arms reduction towards maintaining a superior nuclear deterrent. Trump himself suggested on social media that the US should “work on a new, improved, and modernized treaty that can last long into the future.”

Concerns from Hibakusha and Calls for the TPNW

Japanese Hibakusha have expressed deep concern over the expiration of New START and the potential for a renewed nuclear arms race. Tanakumi, co-chair of a Hibakusha group, articulated a sense of crisis, stating, “Nuclear weapons are weapons that must not be used. The fact that such weapons are being used to fight for supremacy and put international issues on the table shows that humankind has come to a hopeless situation.” He urged Japan to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and actively work towards global nuclear disarmament.

Logical Connections and Overall Assessment

The report demonstrates a clear shift in US nuclear policy, moving away from bilateral arms control with Russia towards a focus on China’s growing nuclear arsenal. The expiration of New START is presented not as a failure of disarmament efforts, but as a necessary adjustment to a changing geopolitical landscape. This shift is fueled by concerns about maintaining a credible deterrent against two major nuclear powers. The contrasting perspectives of Hibakusha, advocating for complete disarmament through the TPNW, highlight the ethical and humanitarian dimensions of the debate, which are often overshadowed by strategic considerations.

Conclusion

The expiration of New START represents a significant setback for nuclear disarmament. The focus on including China in future negotiations, coupled with arguments for increasing US nuclear capabilities, suggests a move towards a more competitive and potentially dangerous nuclear environment. The concerns voiced by Hibakusha serve as a stark reminder of the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war and the urgent need for renewed efforts towards a world free of nuclear weapons.