New leader, old problems: What’s next for Japan under Sanae Takaichi?

Key Concepts

• Sana Takayichi: Japan's first female Prime Minister, a staunch conservative from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
• Liberal Democratic Party (LDP): Japan's ruling political party.
• Japan Innovation Party (Ishin): A new coalition partner for the LDP.
• Komeito: Former coalition partner of the LDP.
• Margaret Thatcher: Former British Prime Minister, seen as a role model by Sana Takayichi.
• Abenomics: Economic policies implemented by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, characterized by expansionary fiscal policy and quantitative easing.
• GDP (Gross Domestic Product): A measure of the total value of goods and services produced in a country.
• Yasukuni Shrine: A shrine in Tokyo that honors Japan's war dead, including convicted war criminals, which is a point of contention with China and South Korea.
• Pacifist Constitution: Japan's post-World War II constitution, which renounces war and the threat of force.
• Snap Election: An early general election called before the end of the parliamentary term.

Sana Takayichi: Japan's First Female Prime Minister and Her Challenges

This podcast episode details the historic election of Sana Takayichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister and analyzes the significant challenges she faces upon entering office. Takayichi, a long-time insider of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and a staunch conservative, inherits a complex domestic and foreign policy landscape.

Background and Political Career

Sana Takayichi's political journey began in 1993 when she first won a seat in the lower house as an independent. She joined the LDP three years later. After a brief period out of parliament where she taught at a university, she returned in 2005. Her career includes holding various cabinet positions, notably serving five years as Internal Affairs Minister under the Shinzo Abe administration, the longest tenure for a parliamentarian in that post. She also served as Economic Security Minister in the Fumio Kishida cabinet and has run for LDP president multiple times, with her recent bid being her third.

Takayichi's background also includes a stint as a US congressional fellow and a former TV newscaster. She is known for her admiration of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, whom she sees as a role model for her commitment to reforms. Her personal life includes a marriage, divorce, and remarriage to former parliamentarian Taku Yamamoto. She is also known for her love of heavy metal music and playing the drums, as well as a fondness for cars and strawberry shortcake.

Domestic Battles: Economic Priorities and Fiscal Policy

A primary concern for Takayichi is Japan's fragile economy, characterized by persistent inflation, high prices, and stagnant wages. The rising cost of living has been a significant source of public unhappiness. Consumer prices have been increasing since late 2021, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which disrupt Japan's imports of food and fuel. This past month alone, 1,000 retail items saw price hikes, with wages failing to keep pace.

In response, Takayichi has ordered her newly formed cabinet to focus on economic measures. The LDP had previously campaigned on promises of cash handouts (20,000 yen per household, 40,000 yen for low-income families) during the July upper house election, though the party lost its majority in that chamber.

Takayichi's vision includes an expansionary fiscal policy, akin to a continuation of "Abenomics," which involves cheap borrowing and high public expenditure. However, Japan already faces a record-high national debt, approximately 250% of its GDP. While tax income has been strong in recent years, the aging population leads to expanding social welfare spending, contributing to high expenditure and public debt. The effectiveness of this approach will depend on how her newly appointed Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, navigates this situation.

Political Compromises and Coalition Dynamics

Takayichi's leadership is significantly shaped by her new coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin). Ishin's primary request is a 10% reduction in the number of parliamentarians. This policy is reportedly not well-received within the LDP, as it could lead to a loss of seats for the party, especially given their current lack of a majority in both houses. Takayichi faces a delicate balancing act: she needs Ishin's support but cannot alienate her own party. Ishin played a crucial role in her election, replacing Komeito as the LDP's coalition partner.

Foreign Policy and Security Concerns

On the foreign policy front, Takayichi faces a volatile environment with China, North Korea, and the crucial US alliance. She is known for her pro-Taiwan stance and has visited Taiwan, meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen. Her regular visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors war dead including convicted war criminals, have historically been a point of contention with Beijing and Seoul. However, she has not visited the shrine recently, suggesting an effort to improve ties with China.

Defense is another key area, with Takayichi advocating for increased spending beyond the current 1% of GDP cap (which was raised to 2% by the previous administration). She believes more spending is necessary given Japan's proximity to nuclear-capable nations like China, Russia, and North Korea. The potential for East Asia to become another conflict zone, similar to Ukraine, is a concern. Takayichi aims to develop longer-range missile capabilities, though this is controversial due to Japan's pacifist constitution, which renounces war.

Relations with the United States and Donald Trump

Takayichi's upcoming meeting with US President Donald Trump in late October presents a critical opportunity to build trust. With only about a week to prepare, she can leverage her connection to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with whom Trump had a strong relationship. She has retained key figures from the Abe administration, including Rio Akazawa as Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (former chief US tariff negotiator for Abe) and Toshimitsu Motegi as Foreign Minister (former chief trade negotiator under Trump 1.0, whom Trump called a "tough negotiator"). These appointments are expected to provide continuity and familiarity for Trump.

Risks to Leadership and Power Consolidation

Japan's recent history of frequent prime ministerial changes poses a risk to Takayichi's ability to govern. Her new coalition with Ishin is untested, and the success of their proposed parliamentary seat reduction will be a key indicator. A revolt within the LDP over this issue could threaten her leadership.

Ultimately, public approval ratings will be crucial. If her approval rises, she may consider calling a snap election to secure a stronger mandate and make policy implementation easier. Her immediate tasks include balancing the untested coalition, avoiding alienating LDP supporters, and potentially facing an internal revolt.

Political watchers note that Takayichi formed her cabinet without consulting LDP heavyweights, an unusual move that could impact intra-party cooperation. As the LDP forms a minority government, she will also need cooperation from opposition parties. While initial reactions to her as the first female leader have been positive globally, future cooperation will depend on her policy decisions.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

Sana Takayichi steps into the role of Japan's first female Prime Minister facing significant economic headwinds, a complex geopolitical landscape, and the challenge of navigating a new coalition. Her leadership will be tested by her ability to manage domestic economic issues, her foreign policy decisions concerning regional powers, and her capacity to consolidate power within her party and secure public support. Her success will determine whether she can break the pattern of Japan's "revolving door" leadership and steer the nation through its current crises.