New book envisions future of war in world devastated by climate change

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical Destiny: The theory that geography dictates the fate of nations, now being fundamentally altered by climate change.
• Asymmetric Warfare: The use of mass-produced, low-cost technology (drones) to achieve strategic advantages against larger conventional forces.
• Technological Proliferation: The evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) from a peripheral element in modern warfare to a central, existential driver of global conflict.
• Climate-Security Nexus: The recognition of climate change (drought, rising sea levels, melting ice) as a primary catalyst for migration, economic instability, and international conflict.

---

1. Current Geopolitical Outlook

The authors provide a short-term assessment of global flashpoints:

• Strait of Hormuz: Elliot Ackerman identifies this as a persistent point of leverage for Iran. He argues that despite the passage of time, the strategic importance of this chokepoint remains a constant source of tension.
• Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Admiral James Stavridis notes a shift in momentum. He highlights that Ukraine is currently "on the front foot," suggesting that the conflict could potentially move toward a negotiated conclusion by the end of the year.

2. Data and Military Metrics

Admiral Stavridis provides specific data points to illustrate the current intensity of the war in Ukraine:

• Drone Production: Ukraine is currently manufacturing 1 million drones per month.
• Attrition Rates: These drones are contributing to the removal of approximately 1,000 Russian personnel per day from the battlefield.
• Total Losses: The Admiral estimates that Russia lost 35,000 personnel in the preceding month, a rate he characterizes as "unsustainable."

3. The Trilogy Framework: 2034, 2054, 2084

The authors utilize their trilogy to explore the three primary challenges of the 21st century:

• Peer-Level War: Explored in 2034, focusing on the potential for conflict between the U.S. and China.
• AI in Domestic Politics: Explored in 2054, where AI moves from the battlefield to the center of political discourse.
• Climate Change: The central theme of 2084, which examines how environmental shifts redefine geography and, consequently, the interactions between nation-states.

4. The Role of Climate Change in Geopolitics

Ackerman and Stavridis argue that climate change is the ultimate disruptor of "geographical reality."

• Strategic Shifts: They cite President Trump’s interest in Greenland as an example of how climate change forces leaders to re-evaluate geography.
• Security Implications: The authors emphasize that the Pentagon has historically identified climate change as a "massively destabilizing force." They note that climate-driven events—such as drought and rising sea levels—create a chain reaction: economic pressure leads to food insecurity, which triggers mass migration, ultimately resulting in heightened security tensions.

5. The Human Element in Future Warfare

Despite the focus on high-tech weaponry and geopolitical strategy, the authors stress that their novels are fundamentally character-driven.

• Continuity: The characters in 2084 are descendants of those in 2034, allowing the authors to explore how these systemic challenges (AI, climate, war) impact human lives across generations.
• Synthesis: The authors describe their collaboration as a blend of the "strategist" (Stavridis) and the "humanist" (Ackerman), aiming to ground abstract global threats in the lived experiences of individuals.

Conclusion

The trilogy serves as a cautionary projection of the 21st century. The authors conclude that while technology—specifically AI and drone warfare—is rapidly changing the mechanics of conflict, the core of their work remains the human struggle to adapt to a world where climate change has rendered traditional geographical boundaries and political certainties obsolete.