Netanyahu government relies solely on force, with no clear strategy or diplomatic vision

Key Concepts

• IDF Operations in the West Bank: The discussion centers on a new IDF operation in the occupied West Bank, comparing it to previous actions in Jenin and Tulkarm.
• Roots of Violence: The lack of political progress and hope for a political solution is identified as a primary driver for the entrenchment of occupation and the emergence of resistance groups.
• Counter-Militancy vs. Collective Punishment: The IDF's stated goal of targeting armed groups is contrasted with the perception of the operation as a message of oppression and collective punishment towards the Palestinian population.
• Settler Violence and Impunity: The increasing violence by settlers, often with impunity, is highlighted, with questions raised about their connection to the Israeli military and the role of the current Israeli government.
• Government-Military Relations: Tensions between the Israeli military establishment and the government are noted, particularly concerning strategic decisions and personnel changes.
• Autocratic Governance: The current Israeli government is described as increasingly autocratic, impacting its relationships with the military, judiciary, and legislative branches.
• Dangerous Confrontation: The situation is characterized as an ongoing dangerous confrontation, with Israeli security forces allegedly protecting perpetrators rather than victims of settler violence.
• International Community's Role: The lack of international intervention and demand for accountability for settler violence is questioned, with a call for responsible nations to pressure the Israeli government.
• Impact on Ceasefire Negotiations: The ongoing violence in the West Bank is seen as a significant impediment to moving to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, hindering trust-building and concessions.
• Palestinian Authority's Sidelining: The Palestinian Authority and its security forces are noted as being sidelined by the IDF.
• Israeli Government's Ultimate Goal: The ultimate goal is debated, with survival in power for Netanyahu, and a desire for continued conflict and justification for force by the far-right elements.
• Lack of Diplomatic Horizon: The current government's reliance on force without a clear strategy or diplomatic horizon is seen as perpetuating the cycle of violence.

Summary of Discussion on West Bank Operations and Regional Dynamics

This discussion with Yosi Meccleberg, senior consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, delves into the complexities of the current situation in the occupied West Bank, particularly concerning a new IDF operation.

New IDF Operation in the Occupied West Bank

The operation commencing today in the occupied West Bank is described as not significantly different from previous actions. Meccleberg points to similar operations in Jenin and Tulkarm refugee camps, where over 30,000 people were displaced and numerous homes destroyed. This highlights an element of continuation of existing policies. The volatility of the situation and the lack of any political progress are identified as key factors leading to the entrenchment of the occupation. While acknowledging the presence of armed groups like the "Lion's Den" and "Jenin Brigades," Meccleberg argues that their existence stems from the absence of any hope for a political solution for people living under occupation. The military's approach is characterized as a singular modus operandi of using force, rather than a multi-faceted strategy.

Political vs. Security Operation

While the IDF states its objective is to target Palestinian armed groups, local officials describe the operation as political rather than security-driven. Meccleberg agrees it's a combination of both. On one hand, it's a counter-militancy operation aiming to arrest or neutralize militants. However, he emphasizes a strong element of collective punishment directed at the Palestinian population, with leaflets disseminated warning of difficult lives if resistance continues. This occurs at a time when settler terrorism has worsened with complete impunity.

Settler Violence and Government Influence

The issue of settler violence and its connection to the Israeli military is explored. Meccleberg states that while most settlers are not involved in violence, a hardcore of extremists exists. These individuals aim to send a message that Palestinians are unwanted in their own homes, with some advocating for the annexation of the West Bank and the expulsion of Palestinians. The current Israeli government, described as the most right-wing in Israel's history, is heavily reliant on messianic religious nationalists due to Netanyahu's corruption trial. This dependency dictates government policies, impacting democracy in Israel, the conduct of the war in Gaza, and the situation in the West Bank.

Tensions Between Military and Political Establishment

Evidence of tension between the military establishment and the government is observed. This was particularly evident regarding the decision to enter Gaza City, which the Chief of Staff opposed. Further intervention by the Defense Minister occurred when the Chief of Staff attempted personnel changes following the October 7th events. The government is characterized as increasingly autocratic, disregarding established civil-military relations, the judiciary, and the legislature. This autocratic nature creates difficult operational lines between the executive, police, and military.

The Inevitability of Dangerous Confrontation

Given the backing of hard-right elements in Netanyahu's government for Israeli settlers, the prospect of a dangerous confrontation is deemed highly likely. Meccleberg states that a dangerous confrontation is already underway. He cites instances of settlers violently interfering with the olive harvest, a crucial source of income for Palestinians, and attacking innocent civilians without provocation. Alarmingly, Israeli security forces are perceived as protecting the victimizers rather than the victims. This situation is seen as continuing for too long, with little hope for change without a clear voice from the international community.

International Community's Inaction

Hamas has called for international intervention, yet the world appears to be turning away from the West Bank. Meccleberg questions why governments in Europe and the United States are not demanding that the Israeli government stop settler violence, charge violent settlers, and potentially remove them from the West Bank. He argues that responsible elements of the international community, especially those with close ties to Israel, should make these demands. This is also crucial for the reputation of non-violent settlers and the future possibility of peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians.

Impact on Gaza Ceasefire Efforts

The escalating violence in the West Bank is seen as making the move to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire significantly more difficult. The second phase is inherently challenging, testing the true intentions of both sides regarding Hamas's disarmament and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and the establishment of a new Palestinian-led governing body. Ongoing violence undermines the trust-building necessary for concessions and readiness to compromise. The role of the Palestinian Authority and its security forces, who have been sidelined by the IDF, is also overlooked in this context.

Ultimate Goal of the Israeli Government

The ultimate goal of the Israeli government is multifaceted. From a military perspective, the aim is to reduce the danger posed by armed groups. For Netanyahu, the primary objective is survival in power and remaining Prime Minister. The far-right elements, however, thrive on the clash between Israel and Palestine, continuing the conflict and violence to justify the absence of a two-state solution and promote the sole use of force. This ultimately leads to the desire for control over the West Bank. As long as the current government remains in power, Meccleberg concludes, there is no chance of moving beyond a formula of using force without a strategy or diplomatic horizon.