National Security Threats and Trade

Key Concepts

• Tariffs (on China vs. on allies)
• Technology Theft
• AI Advancement (US vs. China)
• Geopolitical concerns (China, Russia/Ukraine, Iran nuclear)
• Strategic Decoupling
• National Security
• Supply Chain Challenges
• Public Opinion

I. Public Perception of Trade and Tariffs

• Americans generally support tariffs on China.
• Support diminishes significantly when tariffs lead to rising consumer prices.
• The Reagan Institute conducted public opinion polls on these issues.

II. Concerns Regarding China

• Technology Theft: Ranked as the top concern among Americans regarding China.
• AI Advancement: Concerns about China surpassing the U.S. in artificial intelligence research and leadership.
• Other concerns include China's military buildup, economic practices, and human rights abuses.
• These technology concerns are very present on the minds of the American people.

III. Broader Geopolitical Concerns

• Preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is the top geopolitical concern for Americans.
• 84% of Americans, across both Democrat and Republican parties, support preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• Other geopolitical issues include China and the war between Russia and Ukraine.

IV. Implications for Corporate America and Defense Tech

• Corporate America needs to consider the data and research when making decisions.
• Tariffs are not a one-size-fits-all solution; distinctions must be made.
• Strategic decoupling on a national security basis is different from tariffs on allies.

V. Tariffs on Allies vs. China

• Tariffs on allies can harm the American tech sector and the ability to modernize the military.
• Such tariffs impact the ability to develop capabilities needed to address national security threats.
• The American people and the US tech sector understand these distinctions.

VI. Supply Chain Challenges

• Sustained, long-term tariffs against allies and friends exacerbate supply chain challenges.

VII. Synthesis/Conclusion

The American public supports tariffs on China but is sensitive to rising consumer prices. Technology theft and AI advancement by China are major concerns. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is a top geopolitical priority. Corporate America, particularly the tech sector, must understand the nuanced impact of tariffs, distinguishing between strategic decoupling from adversaries and tariffs on allies, considering the impact on supply chains and national security.