National security expert: Cuba must leave Venezuela now

Venezuela & Cuba: A Discussion with Robert O’Brien

Key Concepts:

• Cuban Influence in Venezuela: The extensive involvement of Cuban military, intelligence, and security forces in propping up the Maduro regime.
• Transition of Power in Venezuela: The potential for a shift in power from the Maduro government to a transitional government and ultimately, free and fair elections.
• US Policy towards Venezuela: The Trump administration’s approach, emphasizing support for the Venezuelan people and potential use of force if necessary.
• Delcy Rodriguez: The current acting president of Venezuela and her potential cooperation with the US.
• Venezuelan Military: The role and potential for cooperation or resistance from the Venezuelan military.
• Baathist Model Avoidance: The lessons learned from the Iraq intervention regarding the complete dismantling of existing structures.

I. The Urgent Need to Remove Cuban Influence

The primary focus of the discussion is the necessity of removing Cuban influence from Venezuela. Robert O’Brien asserts that “The Cubans need to go. And they need to go now.” He draws a parallel to the situation in Venezuela with the departure of Cuban personnel from Venezuela following events in Venezuela, suggesting Cuban intelligence officers should anticipate a similar outcome and seek refuge in Havana, Moscow, or Beijing. This urgency stems from the belief that Cuba has “ruined” Venezuela and is sustaining itself through Venezuelan oil.

O’Brien highlights Delcy Rodriguez’s apparent willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape. He emphasizes that cutting off Venezuela’s oil supply to Cuba would significantly damage the Cuban economy, as Venezuelan oil has been crucial for Cuba’s survival.

II. Potential Approaches: Negotiation vs. Force

The conversation addresses the question of how to achieve the removal of Cuban forces. While O’Brien expresses hope that military force will not be necessary, he believes a clear message must be delivered to the Cuban leadership. He suggests that Senator Marco Rubio, due to his Cuban heritage and fluency in Spanish, is the ideal person to deliver this message directly to Cuban leaders, urging them to withdraw their forces.

O’Brien points to President Trump’s history of offering opportunities for de-escalation – citing examples with Iran and Maduro – before resorting to stronger measures. He states that Trump “always gives people a chance,” but will take decisive action if those opportunities are rejected.

III. The Fate of the Maduro Regime and its Supporters

Larry King questions the fate of individuals associated with the Maduro regime, including Delcy Rodriguez. O’Brien draws a cautionary lesson from the Iraq intervention, where the complete dismantling of the Baathist government led to chaos and the rise of ISIS. He proposes a different approach for Venezuela: allowing current Chavista officials a period to transition to the opposition, potentially forming a transitional government, and ultimately holding free and fair elections.

He highlights the existence of legitimate opposition leaders, such as Eduardo Gonzalez and Nobel Prize winner, who are prepared to lead a democratic Venezuela. He notes that previous elections under Chavez and Maduro were fraudulent, but that a genuine democratic process is possible.

IV. Engaging the Venezuelan Military

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the role of the Venezuelan military. O’Brien acknowledges the military’s entrenched position and the benefits its senior officers have enjoyed. However, he believes the military will ultimately cooperate with the United States to avoid further losses. He references a recent raid where Venezuelan forces suffered casualties while no American lives were lost, suggesting the military will recognize the futility of resistance.

He emphasizes that the US will treat the Venezuelan military with respect if they “do the right thing,” but warns that they will “pay a heavy price” if they choose to oppose the US and the Venezuelan people. He believes the military will be the first to “fall in line” as they will bear the brunt of any conflict.

V. US Policy & Support for the Venezuelan People

Throughout the conversation, O’Brien consistently emphasizes President Trump’s commitment to the Venezuelan people. He states that Trump “always takes the side of the people,” just as he has with Iran and Venezuela, and wants to see them “rich, safe, and healthy again.” He suggests that the Venezuelan people, now emboldened by US support, will not tolerate the continued presence of Cuban forces who have “tortured and oppressed” them.

Notable Quotes:

• “The Cubans need to go. And they need to go now.” – Robert O’Brien
• “Cuba’s basically colonized Venezuela.” – Robert O’Brien
• “President Trump won’t put up with that and, frankly, the Venezuelan people, now that they’ve got some hope with President Trump on the people’s side, he always takes the side of the people.” – Robert O’Brien
• “She’s a quick study, Larry.” – Robert O’Brien (referring to Delcy Rodriguez)
• “It’s about the future, so you’ve got to be careful about that.” – Robert O’Brien (paraphrasing Yogi Berra)

Technical Terms & Concepts:

• Chavista: Referring to supporters of Hugo Chávez and his political ideology.
• Baathist: Referring to supporters of the Ba'ath Party, formerly dominant in Iraq.
• Gestapo: Referring to the secret police of Nazi Germany, used metaphorically to describe the Cuban security forces’ tactics in Venezuela.
• Transitional Government: A temporary government established to oversee a transition to a more stable and democratic system.
• JV Team: A dismissive term used by President Obama to describe ISIS, highlighting the perceived limited threat they posed.

Logical Connections:

The discussion flows logically from identifying the core problem (Cuban influence) to exploring potential solutions (negotiation, force, transition of power). The conversation consistently links US policy to the well-being of the Venezuelan people, framing the intervention as a means of restoring democracy and prosperity. The cautionary tale of Iraq serves as a framework for avoiding past mistakes in the Venezuelan transition.

Conclusion:

The conversation paints a picture of a potential shift in Venezuela, driven by US pressure and a willingness from some within the Maduro regime to cooperate. The key to a successful transition lies in removing Cuban influence, engaging the Venezuelan military, and establishing a framework for free and fair elections. The emphasis throughout is on supporting the Venezuelan people and avoiding the pitfalls of previous interventions, particularly the complete dismantling of existing structures. The overall takeaway is that a resolution in Venezuela is possible, but requires a strategic and nuanced approach.