Myanmar will ‘continue to be ruled by fear and intimidation’ after election: Ex-ambassador

Myanmar General Election & Political Landscape - Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• 2021 Coup: The military coup that ousted the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
• National League for Democracy (NLD): The political party led by Aung San Suu Kyi, which won a landslide victory in the 2020 election but has been banned.
• Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP): The military-affiliated party expected to win the current election.
• ASEAN: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a regional intergovernmental organization.
• National Unity Government (NUG): The government formed by pro-democracy forces after the 2021 coup.
• Rare Earths: A group of 17 chemical elements used in many high-tech devices, with Myanmar possessing significant reserves.
• Civil War: The ongoing armed conflict between the military government and various armed opposition groups.

1. Election Context & Current Situation

Vote counting is underway in Myanmar’s second phase of its general election, extending voting to 100 townships across Yangon, Mandalay, and Shan State. This election is the first since the February 2021 military coup, which removed the government of Aung San Suu Kyi and initiated a period of civil war. The polls are being held amidst widespread fear and coercion, with reports of attacks on polling stations – at least four reported incidents resulting in the deaths of two administrative officials. The military-run election is widely viewed by critics and rights groups as an attempt to legitimize the military’s rule, particularly given the imprisonment of thousands of political prisoners. Despite the challenging environment, some voters express hope for a government that will improve their lives.

2. Public Mood & Coercion

According to Nicholas Coppél, former Australian Ambassador to Myanmar and current Vice President of the Australia Myanmar Institute, the elections are taking place in an “atmosphere of fear.” A new law criminalizes criticism of the election process, with penalties ranging up to the death sentence. Major political parties, including the NLD, have been banned from participating. This suppression of opposition and the climate of fear are significantly shaping voter participation.

3. Legitimacy & International Recognition

The election is primarily seen as an attempt by the military to gain international legitimacy, particularly from ASEAN member states. Coppél emphasizes that the election lacks the conditions necessary for a free and fair process: the absence of key political parties, the restricted media environment (international media banned, domestic media controlled through licensing), and the overall atmosphere of fear. While acknowledging the difficulty of stopping the elections, the key question is the extent to which international actors will engage with the government formed after the polls.

4. Strategic Interests & Rare Earths

The discussion touched upon whether external tolerance of the election process is linked to strategic interests, specifically Myanmar’s rare earth sector. However, Coppél downplayed this as a primary driver, stating the coup predated the heightened global concern over rare earths. He noted that rare earth deposits are often located in areas controlled by ethnic resistance organizations, complicating access. He identified China’s primary concerns as peace and security on its border, combating cyber scam centers targeting Chinese citizens, and long-term economic interests like a rail line connecting to a deep-water port. Thailand’s concerns center on irregular migration, border security, and pollution from unregulated mining.

5. Post-Election Outlook & Governance

The USDP, a military-affiliated party, is expected to win the majority of seats. Coppél predicts that the resulting government will likely be composed of former military generals in civilian roles, and that policies and practices will likely remain unchanged. He anticipates continued rule by fear and intimidation.

6. Potential for International Intervention & ASEAN’s Role

There is increasing pressure on ASEAN to engage with the NUG, the government formed after the 2020 elections. However, ASEAN’s effectiveness is hampered by its rotating chairmanship and the one-year term of its special envoy, leading to a lack of continuity and depth in its approach. The strength and commitment of the ASEAN chair and special envoy are crucial factors in determining the level of pressure applied to the regime.

7. Notable Quotes

• “These elections have been conducted in an atmosphere of fear.” – Nicholas Coppél
• “It is very much an attempt by the military to gain some international legitimacy.” – Nicholas Coppél
• “It’s hard to see why that [a new government] would result in a change in any policies or practices.” – Nicholas Coppél

8. Technical Terms & Concepts

• AEAN Special Envoy: A representative appointed by ASEAN to mediate and facilitate dialogue in Myanmar.
• Rotating Chairmanship (ASEAN): The annual rotation of the ASEAN chairmanship among member states.
• Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs): Armed groups representing various ethnic minorities in Myanmar, often engaged in conflict with the military.

9. Logical Connections

The discussion flows logically from the immediate context of the election to a broader analysis of the military’s motivations, the international response, and the likely future trajectory of Myanmar. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of political, economic, and security factors influencing the situation. The discussion of rare earths serves as a counterpoint to the idea that economic interests are the sole driver of international inaction, with Coppél offering a more nuanced perspective.

10. Synthesis & Main Takeaways

The Myanmar general election is widely perceived as a sham designed to legitimize the military regime. The election is taking place under conditions of fear and coercion, with key opposition parties banned and media severely restricted. While the military seeks international recognition, particularly from ASEAN, the lack of a free and fair process undermines its legitimacy. The post-election government is likely to be dominated by military figures, perpetuating the current state of repression. The role of ASEAN and the potential for international engagement with the NUG remain critical, but are hampered by internal challenges within ASEAN and the complex geopolitical landscape. The situation is unlikely to improve significantly without substantial international pressure and a genuine commitment to democratic principles.