Myanmar vote: Boycott or participate? Pro-democracy leader’s dilemmaーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Myanmar’s Election Under Military Rule

Key Concepts:

• Coup d'état (Coup): The sudden, illegal seizure of a government.
• National Unity Government (NUG): The shadow government formed by pro-democracy forces in Myanmar following the 2021 coup.
• Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP): The political party backed by the Myanmar military.
• Pro-Democracy Movement: The ongoing struggle for civilian rule and democratic reforms in Myanmar.
• Constitutional Amendment: Changes to the fundamental laws governing a country.

Political Context & The Election

Myanmar is currently undergoing a phased general election orchestrated by the military government, five years after seizing power in a coup. This election is taking place amidst an ongoing civil war between the military and pro-democracy forces. While the military claims the election is a step towards transitioning to civilian rule, most pro-democracy parties have been barred from participation, leading opposition figures in exile to call for a boycott, labeling it a “sham election.” The final results are expected later this month. The military’s involvement in politics stems from armed conflict that began after Myanmar’s independence.

Kokoji’s Decision to Participate

Despite the widely criticized nature of the election, Kokoji, leader of the People’s Party and a prominent pro-democracy figure, has chosen to run as a candidate. He explains this decision not as a matter of preference, but as a necessity: “We did not choose this because it was our favorite option. We chose it because we had no other choice.” Kokoji believes that participation, even under these conditions, is the only way to maintain his party’s presence in the political sphere. He acknowledges the lack of fairness, citing high security threats and the impossibility of a “normal election.”

Kokoji’s background is deeply rooted in the pro-democracy movement. He rose to prominence during the 1988 uprising, leading nationwide protests against military rule and spending nearly 20 years in prison for his activism. He collaborated with Aung San Suu Kyi for almost 30 years, campaigning across the country. Now 64, he has concluded that armed resistance is ineffective, stating, “We have reached the 78th Independence Day. This means Myanmar's armed revolution is also 78 years old. In our view, the only lasting result is that the people continue to suffer.” He advocates for strengthening the peace process and pursuing political solutions.

The National Unity Government’s (NUG) Perspective

The NUG, Myanmar’s shadow government, continues to advocate for resistance and dismisses the election as meaningless. They argue that it will not address Myanmar’s fundamental problems and are appealing to the international community for support. However, Kokoji suggests the NUG’s influence has waned since the coup, with promises remaining unfulfilled. He observes a disconnect between those experiencing daily security threats within Myanmar and those abroad relying on online information. He emphasizes the importance of pressuring the military through political means, with the ultimate goal of achieving “100% democracy.”

Public Sentiment & Election Results (Phase 1)

NHK World’s Kai Genki, reporting from Myanmar, found that Kokoji’s stance has not garnered significant open support. He observed a sense of resignation among the population, with many people indifferent to the election. Citizens expressed feelings of hopelessness, fear, and pressure from authorities. One business owner stated, “In this case, we have no choice but to vote. Because of that pressure, we are forced to live in fear.” Another expressed pessimism about the future, saying, “Things have been difficult during these five years. The next five are only going to be even more painful.”

The first phase of the election saw the USDP, backed by the military, win over 80% of the seats in both houses of parliament. The USDP is widely expected to achieve an overall victory, indicating the military will likely maintain its influence post-election. Kokoji hopes to reduce the military’s power through constitutional amendments, a process he acknowledges will be lengthy and challenging.

Economic & International Impact

The coup has had a devastating impact on Myanmar, leading to a worsening economy, soaring prices, and a significant exodus of young people. There are concerns that this negative trend will accelerate. International support for the election is limited, with only a few countries, including China and Russia, recognizing it. Most Western nations and the UN consider the election illegitimate. Genki notes that international criticism alone will not resolve the situation, and a long-term strategy is needed to break the deadlock.

Quote:

“We did not choose this because it was our favorite option. We chose it because we had no other choice.” – Kokoji, Leader of the People’s Party.

Data & Statistics:

• USDP Seat Share (Phase 1): Over 80% of seats in both houses of parliament.
• Prison Time (Kokoji): Nearly 20 years in prison for pro-democracy activism.
• Independence Day/Revolution Age: Myanmar’s 78th Independence Day marks 78 years of armed revolution.

Logical Connections:

The report establishes a clear connection between the historical military involvement in Myanmar’s politics, the 2021 coup, and the current election. It contrasts the strategies of Kokoji, who seeks change through participation, with the NUG, which advocates for continued resistance. The report also highlights the disconnect between the experiences of those inside Myanmar and those observing from abroad.

Conclusion:

Myanmar’s election is a deeply flawed process occurring under military rule. While Kokoji’s decision to participate represents a strategic attempt to maintain a political presence and pursue change through constitutional means, it has not resonated with the public, who largely express resignation and fear. The USDP’s expected victory ensures the military will retain significant power, and the country faces a bleak future marked by economic hardship and political instability. A long-term, comprehensive strategy involving both internal and international efforts is crucial to achieving a democratic resolution in Myanmar.