Myanmar election: Officials complete preparations ahead of first phase of polls on Dec 28

Key Concepts

• 2021 Myanmar Coup: The military seizure of power from the democratically elected government.
• Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP): The military-backed political party expected to dominate the elections.
• Five-Point Consensus: A plan proposed by ASEAN for resolving the crisis in Myanmar, focusing on ending violence and initiating political dialogue.
• Reserved Parliamentary Seats: The 25% of parliamentary seats constitutionally reserved for military appointees.
• Election Boycott: The call by opposition groups for citizens to abstain from participating in the elections.

Myanmar’s Upcoming General Election: A Detailed Overview

Election Phases and Geographic Scope

Myanmar’s military government is finalizing preparations for the first phase of a general election commencing tomorrow. The election is structured in three phases, with the initial phase covering 102 out of the country’s 330 townships. Subsequent phases are scheduled for January 11th and January 25th. A nighttime curfew in Yangon has been lifted by the military government, citing improved stability as justification for the move ahead of the first voting day. This lifting of the curfew is directly linked to facilitating the election process.

Constitutional Framework and Military Entrenchment

Myanmar’s parliamentary system consists of two chambers – upper and lower houses. However, the 2008 constitution guarantees significant military influence. Specifically, 25% of the seats in both the upper and lower houses are not elected but are reserved for serving military officers appointed directly by the army chief. This constitutional provision ensures the military remains a powerful and permanent fixture within the political structure, regardless of election outcomes. The elections are presented by the military as a pathway to restoring democracy, but this is heavily qualified by the guaranteed military representation.

Political Parties and Expected Outcomes

Six parties are contesting the election nationwide. The Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP), backed by the military, is widely anticipated to achieve a dominant position in the vote. Campaigning has been underway since late October, with the USDP actively engaging in hustings, exemplified by a rally in Pinguin, Mandandalay region, last month. However, the military is acutely aware of the potential for a widespread boycott, which would severely undermine the legitimacy of the election and its stated goal of exiting political isolation.

Measures to Counteract Boycott and Suppress Dissent

To mitigate the risk of a boycott, the military government has implemented a series of measures. In July, a new law was enacted imposing severe jail terms on individuals accused of disrupting the elections. Dozens of people have already been detained under this legislation. Simultaneously, the government is employing a “softer” approach, leveraging the legacy of independence hero General Aung San to garner public support for the elections. This includes utilizing celebrity endorsements to encourage voter participation.

Opposition and Public Sentiment

The National Unity Government (NUG), the opposition force formed after the 2021 coup, is actively urging citizens to boycott the elections, deeming them a “sham” and ineffective in addressing the country’s fundamental problems. A representative of the NUG stated, “like the overwhelming majority of people will not take back in that so-cal sham election because it is it is it is offer no genuine solutions for our country.” This sentiment is echoed by residents in Yangon, who express a lack of faith and trust in the military government. However, some individuals maintain a cautious optimism, hoping for a positive outcome despite the circumstances. One resident stated, “I’ve been a lifelong optimist and I want to see the best happen to my own country… I would welcome it, you know, and I’m hopeful that in ways unforeseen, it could lead to something positive.”

International Response and the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus

The international community, particularly the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has called for a different approach. ASEAN leaders and the army chief Min Aung Hlaing agreed on a “Five-Point Consensus” during an emergency summit in April 2021. This consensus outlines a path forward predicated on ending violence and initiating political talks. This remains the primary condition for a resolution, as viewed by ASEAN.

Data and Statistics

• Townships Involved in Phase 1: 102 out of 330
• Reserved Parliamentary Seats: 25% in both upper and lower houses
• Time Since Coup: Nearly 5 years (as of the video’s reporting)

Logical Connections

The video establishes a clear connection between the military’s desire to legitimize its rule and the staging of these elections. It then details the measures taken to ensure a favorable outcome, including constitutional provisions, party support, and suppression of dissent. The opposing viewpoints and international pressure are presented as counterforces to the military’s agenda.

Conclusion

The upcoming elections in Myanmar are highly contested and viewed with deep skepticism by a significant portion of the population and the international community. While the military government presents the elections as a step towards democracy, the constitutional framework and the measures taken to control the process suggest a deliberate effort to consolidate power and circumvent genuine political change. The success of the elections, in terms of legitimacy, hinges on overcoming the widespread boycott and achieving a level of participation that can be credibly presented as a mandate for the military-backed government. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, with the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus representing a potential, yet currently unrealized, pathway to a peaceful and inclusive resolution.