Myanmar: Daunting challenges to planned electionーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Myanmar’s Upcoming Election: A Sham and its Implications

Key Concepts:

• Huta (or Ha): Refers to the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military.
• NUG (National Unity Government): A pro-democracy government formed by ousted lawmakers following the 2021 coup.
• Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP): A political party backed by the military, expected to win the election.
• Conscription: Mandatory military service, introduced by the Huta in February 2024, leading to increased emigration.
• Sham Election: A term used to describe the upcoming election, widely viewed as illegitimate and designed to solidify military power.

The Political Crisis and Planned Election

Since the February 2021 military coup, Myanmar has been engulfed in conflict between the Huta and pro-democracy forces, including ethnic minority armed groups. The military is proceeding with a three-stage general election starting at the end of the month, the first since seizing power. However, this election is widely condemned as a maneuver to legitimize the Huta’s rule. Crucially, pro-democracy parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) – which won the 2020 election by a landslide – have been excluded from participation. 57 political parties have registered, but the overwhelming majority of candidates, over 1,000, are affiliated with the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The Huta leader, as quoted by Myanmar state media, claims the election will lead to “a prosperous future,” a statement viewed with skepticism by many.

Voices from the Diaspora: Experiences of Myanmar Nationals in Japan

The situation within Myanmar is being documented and protested by nationals living abroad, particularly in Japan. W Cho and his wife Matida, Burmese residents in Japan for over 30 years, are actively collecting video footage and testimonies to expose the Huta’s violence and the fraudulent nature of the election. They recently spoke with a taxi driver in Yangon who reported widespread public disinterest in the election, with citizens fearing retribution for opposing the Huta. The driver noted a lack of genuine campaigning, contrasting with state television broadcasts. He described the election as “already been decided… a sham election,” emphasizing the pervasive fear and control exerted by the military.

Escalating Repression and Displacement

The Huta has intensified its crackdown on dissent in the lead-up to the election. A local human rights group reports over 100 arrests under a new election law enacted in July, including the shocking arrest of three prominent artists accused of disrupting the election. Simultaneously, the military has granted amnesty to over 3,000 prisoners, claiming it is to “preserve the opportunity for all voters to vote,” a move widely seen as cynical.

The introduction of conscription in February 2024 has triggered a surge in emigration. The number of Myanmar nationals residing in Japan has doubled in the past two years, reaching 160,000. This exodus is a direct consequence of the Huta’s policies and the escalating violence.

Evidence of Military Violence and Destruction

Testimonies gathered by W Cho and Matida reveal the brutal reality on the ground. A contact in the Mandalay region, which experienced a major earthquake in March, reported ongoing air raids on villages under minimal Huta control. He described a pattern of systematic bombing, targeting multiple locations within each village. He shared a video showing the aftermath of a recent airstrike, with homes and shops burning. He poignantly questioned, “How is it possible that the same military that is bombing the country can hold an election?” and stated his firm rejection of the process. Furthermore, the military has reportedly destroyed schools designated as election polling stations in the Mandalay region.

Public Opinion and International Response

An online survey conducted by a Japanese support group, with over 32,000 respondents both inside and outside Myanmar, revealed overwhelming opposition to the election. Almost 99% of respondents stated they would not accept the election, and nearly 99% believed it would not resolve the political crisis.

The international community is divided. The EU and Australia have issued statements declaring the election will not be free and fair. However, China, Russia, and Belarus reportedly plan to send election observer teams, potentially lending legitimacy to the process. Japan has expressed “serious concern” that the election could exacerbate the situation and hinder peaceful resolution.

The Role of the NUG and Continued Resistance

The NUG, the pro-democracy government in exile, is actively working to raise international awareness and reject the election’s legitimacy. An NUG official at a Tokyo rally emphasized the importance of speaking out from abroad, as dissent within Myanmar is severely suppressed. Inside the country, despite the harsh military presence, activists are engaging in acts of resistance, such as flash mob protests urging residents to boycott the election.

Conclusion

The upcoming election in Myanmar is widely viewed as a sham designed to consolidate the Huta’s power. The election is taking place amidst widespread violence, repression, and displacement, with little prospect of a genuine democratic outcome. The overwhelming opposition from the Myanmar people, both within the country and in the diaspora, coupled with the divided international response, highlights the complex and precarious situation facing Myanmar. The election is likely to further escalate the conflict and deepen the political crisis, with potentially devastating consequences for the country and its people.