MUST SEE! Federal Reserve Decision Day Hits And 'Mysteriously' Oracle (ORCL) Reports Earnings

Fed Decision, Oracle Earnings, and Market Manipulation Concerns

Key Concepts:

• Technical Analysis: Method of evaluating investments by analyzing past market data, primarily price and volume.
• Basis Points: A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). Used to describe interest rate changes.
• Hawkish/Dovish (Fed Policy): Hawkish refers to a stance favoring higher interest rates to control inflation. Dovish refers to a stance favoring lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth.
• Wedge Pattern: A chart pattern indicating a period of consolidation that often precedes a breakout or breakdown.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions.
• Smart Money Stocks & ETFs: Gareth Soloway’s swing trade service focusing on identifying institutional investment activity.
• Pivot Points: Significant price levels on a chart that can act as support or resistance.
• Gap Window: A price gap on a chart that often attracts trading activity as the market attempts to "fill" the gap.

I. The Pattern of Post-Fed Announcements

Gareth Soloway observes a recurring pattern: following Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions, there’s a deliberate placement of positive announcements – such as Nvidia/AI deals, strong jobs reports, or now, Oracle earnings – intended to counteract potential market declines. He emphasizes this isn’t necessarily a prediction of market drops because of the Fed, but rather a proactive attempt by the administration to bolster market sentiment. He states, “when you notice every Fed decision after it, there's always some announcement that tries to keep the markets from going down.” This suggests a perceived need to manage market perception following Fed policy announcements.

II. The Fed Decision & Future Outlook

The current Fed decision is anticipated to involve a 25 basis point cut, but with a decidedly hawkish tone. Data suggests this may be the last rate cut during Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed chairman. A new, potentially more dovish chairman is expected in May. However, Soloway stresses that Fed decisions are not unilateral; they require a vote amongst all voting members, and the chairman’s influence, while significant, isn’t absolute. He clarifies, “The Fed chairman can’t just unanimously say, ‘Hey, we’re going to cut rates.’”

III. S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 is currently struggling, trading within a wedge pattern. This pattern suggests limited upside potential. While a breakout is possible, Soloway’s technical analysis indicates resistance at previous highs, with a potential rally limited to approximately 2% before encountering the upper trendline of the wedge. He points to repeated rejections at the parallel line as evidence of this limitation. He notes, “every time we hit the lows here, we get a big bounce and the parallel line to that goes to the highs of the bull market. And it rejected it there and it rejected it here.” Key support and resistance levels are identified, with a potential downside move to around 6100 if the lower trendline of the wedge is broken. A breakout above 7000 would signal a new all-time high and a shift in the technical outlook.

IV. Oracle Earnings & Potential Manipulation

The timing of Oracle’s earnings report immediately following the Fed decision is viewed with suspicion. Soloway highlights the close relationship between Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and former President Trump, noting Ellison’s significant contributions to Trump’s election campaign and his involvement in potential TikTok acquisition efforts. He argues the timing isn’t coincidental, stating, “it is not a coincidence that ultimately they are reporting after hours.” Companies choose their earnings reporting dates, and Ellison specifically selected a date coinciding with or immediately after the Fed announcement.

Soloway believes the odds favor a positive Oracle report, suggesting a potential “wink wink” arrangement between Ellison and Trump to provide a market boost. He acknowledges this is speculative but points to the precedent of similar announcements following previous Fed decisions, such as the Nvidia/OpenAI deal. He states, “I’m not a big conspiracy theorist fan, but at the same time, I’m also very cognizant of the relationship and how much importance President Trump places on the stock market.”

V. Oracle Chart Analysis & Trading Strategy

The Oracle chart shows a bounce from recent lows, but remains significantly below previous highs achieved after a strong earnings report. Soloway believes a good report is likely, as a negative report would not have been scheduled immediately after the Fed announcement. He notes first resistance around the 221-222 level, with potential for a move to 234 if broken. Major support is identified around 190.

Within his swing trade service, “Smart Money Stocks and ETFs,” Soloway has been long on Oracle since the 200s and is currently in profit. He is considering holding the position through earnings, leveraging the existing cushion, but acknowledges the risk of a negative reaction. He emphasizes the importance of technical setups, referencing a previous buying opportunity characterized by a gap window, extreme oversold conditions, and a positive RSI divergence.

VI. The Narrative Shift & Changing Focus

Soloway argues the post-Fed announcements serve to shift the market narrative away from the Fed’s actions and towards “new shiny objects.” This strategy aims to control the market’s focus and minimize the impact of potentially negative Fed policy. He summarizes this as, “it's about changing the narrative from what did the Fed say, what did the Fed do to, oh, look at this new shiny object.”

VII. Oracle’s Future & Potential Catalysts

While acknowledging the unpredictability of market reactions, Soloway speculates on potential catalysts for Oracle’s performance. He questions Oracle’s reliance on OpenAI, given OpenAI’s recent challenges, and suggests a potential positive surprise could come from government contracts. He emphasizes this is speculative but based on an “educated guess.” He doesn’t anticipate a repeat of the 30-40% surge seen after the previous earnings report, but believes a 5-10% increase is plausible.

Conclusion:

Soloway presents a cautious outlook on the S&P 500, highlighting the limitations of the current wedge pattern. He expresses strong concerns about potential market manipulation through strategically timed announcements following Fed decisions, particularly focusing on the Oracle earnings report and the relationship between Larry Ellison and Donald Trump. While acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of market reactions, he believes the odds favor a positive Oracle report due to the deliberate timing and the potential for a narrative shift. His analysis emphasizes the importance of technical analysis, risk management, and understanding the broader context of market dynamics and political influences.