"Mr Witkoff has been falling for this typical old KGB game for a very long time" | DW News

Key Concepts

• European Security Guarantees for Ukraine: A finalized plan by European leaders to provide security assurances to Ukraine, which will be presented to the US for potential involvement.
• 28-Point Plan: An initial peace proposal that was considered too favorable to Russia, requiring Ukraine to cede territory and limit its military.
• Russian Assets: Approximately 140 billion euros of Russian assets held in Brussels, the release of which is being resisted by Belgium.
• "Nothing About Europeans Without Europeans": A principle emphasizing the need for European involvement in decisions concerning Europe, including peace deals for Ukraine.
• KGB Game/Maximalist Demands: A tactic attributed to Putin, involving making extreme demands to portray Ukraine as unreliable and to prolong the conflict.
• US-Led Negotiations: Peace talks primarily driven by the United States, with European allies feeling sidelined.
• Pragmatic Leadership (Trump): The belief that Donald Trump, despite his rhetoric, would act pragmatically in the US's best interest and not abandon Ukraine.

Diplomatic Efforts and European Support for Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is actively seeking support from European allies in Paris, coinciding with crucial peace talks. Speaking with French President Emmanuel Macron, Zelenskyy stressed the importance of not rewarding Russia for its invasion. Macron echoed this sentiment, stating that Moscow has shown no signs of ceasing its aggression and reaffirming Ukraine's sovereign right to determine its own territorial future.

This meeting follows discussions in Miami between Ukraine and the United States. Significant revisions have been made to an earlier 28-point plan, which was widely perceived as overly accommodating to Russia.

European Security Guarantees and US Involvement

Lisa Louie, reporting from Paris, highlighted that French President Macron reiterated European support for Ukraine. This marks Zelenskyy's tenth visit to Paris since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. A key outcome of the conference was Macron's announcement that European leaders have finalized a plan for security guarantees for Ukraine. This plan is intended to be presented to other parties, specifically the US, to determine their potential contribution once a peace agreement is reached.

EU Defense Ministers' Meeting and Financial Support

In Brussels, EU defense ministers concluded their meeting with a commitment to continue exploring avenues for financial support for Ukraine. European allies have reportedly been largely excluded from US-led negotiations concerning a peace deal proposed by the White House. This perceived sidelining may have contributed to a low turnout of senior EU defense ministers at the Brussels meeting, with many sending junior representatives.

The EU supports Ukraine's stance against territorial concessions and maintaining an army capable of self-defense. However, there is a recognition that Europe's negotiating position is weakened. A concern was voiced that pressure might be placed on Ukraine, the victim, to make concessions, diverting focus from Russia's role as the initiator of the war.

US-EU Coordination and Belgian Stance on Russian Assets

When pressed by DW's Terry Schwarz about whether the US is considering European concerns, the Dutch minister acknowledged ongoing discussions and coordination, stating that points raised by European countries and the EU have been taken seriously by the United States.

A notable absentee from the EU defense ministers' meeting was Belgium's Theo Franken. Belgium is facing pressure from other EU governments for its refusal to release approximately 140 billion euros of Russian assets held by a financial institution in Brussels, at a time when EU funding options for Ukraine are diminishing.

European Burden and Involvement in Peace Deals

A significant concern for EU countries is the potential financial burden of rebuilding Ukraine without having had a say in the terms of any peace deal. The principle of "nothing about the Europeans without the Europeans" was emphasized, underscoring the crucial role Europe must play in achieving a favorable peace agreement and in the subsequent rebuilding efforts. Securing a place back in the diplomatic inner circle with the US appears to be a priority for European nations.

Shuttle Diplomacy and the Amended Peace Plan

Shuttle diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine continues with US envoy Steve Witko's planned visit to Moscow on Tuesday, where he is scheduled to meet with President Putin. The Kremlin has confirmed this meeting. Witko will carry with him an amended version of the initial 28-point plan, to which Ukraine has tentatively agreed. The onus is now on Russia to respond.

Expert Analysis on Russian Tactics and European Influence

Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, provided insights into the diplomatic maneuvers. She suggested that Putin aims to present Ukraine with maximalist demands, a tactic she described as a "typical old KGB game" that the US envoy might be falling for. Stradner anticipates that Russia will likely reject the current plan, reiterate maximalist demands, and send it back to Washington for further discussion. This, she believes, serves two purposes: to portray Ukraine as an unreliable ally and to buy more time, as Putin is not inclined to end the war soon.

Stradner argued that Putin does not consider Europe a serious negotiating partner, which is why he is attempting to negotiate directly with the United States. She stressed that Europe should reject this approach and assert its right to decide its own future, including Ukraine's place within Europe.

The Role of the United States and Alliances

Regarding the US, Stradner emphasized the importance of alliances as a pillar of US foreign policy. She suggested that even if a US administration is eager to sign a deal, it is better to have no deal in the short term than a detrimental one in the long run. Therefore, discussions on European security guarantees, Ukraine's future economic development, and its European and NATO path must remain on the table, positioning the EU as a significant global player.

A counterpoint was raised, suggesting that the US is not obligated to act in any particular way and will pursue its perceived best interests, even if it means presenting Ukraine with an unacceptable deal.

Trump's Pragmatism and Russia Policy

Addressing the potential actions of Donald Trump, Stradner expressed doubt that he would abandon Ukraine in the long run, characterizing him as a pragmatic leader who understands the geopolitical alignment of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea against the US. She believes Trump's attempts to negotiate with Putin using business strategies are misguided, as they are unlikely to change Putin's behavior.

However, Stradner also credited Trump with two significant actions: removing the threat of nuclear weapons deployment by Russia and imposing further sanctions on Russia. She anticipates that additional sanctions may be imposed and that Ukraine will receive more arms if Putin rejects the peace proposals.

The Unacceptable 28-Point Plan

Regarding the objectionable 28-point peace plan, it was clarified that it was unacceptable because it demanded Ukraine abandon its territory, renounce NATO membership, and limit its military capabilities. It was acknowledged that President Zelenskyy would not accept such terms. The focus remains on the future of Ukraine and long-term peace, and it is considered too early to speculate on specific outcomes. However, the idea of the US pushing Ukraine to cede territory is strongly opposed.