Motorcyclists slip into frontline Pokrovsk under cover of fog | Ukraine: The Latest

Key Concepts

• Battle for Pokrovsk: Ongoing intense fighting for a strategically important city in Ukraine.
• Russian Infiltration Tactics: Use of fog and poor weather for covert advances, including motorbikes and civilian trucks.
• Ukrainian Drone Warfare: Significant use of FPV drones and heavy bombers, with increasing reliance on unmanned ground vehicles for logistics.
• Corruption Probe in Ukraine: Investigation into Timur Mindich, an associate of President Zelenskyy, for alleged diamond business in Russia and embezzlement.
• NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine): Key agency investigating corruption cases.
• SAPPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office): Investigating potential leaks of information related to the Mindich probe.
• Energatom: Ukraine's state nuclear power company, implicated in a $100 million kickback scheme.
• EU Accession Reforms: Ukraine's progress in fighting corruption is crucial for its EU membership bid.
• Lavrov's Disappearance: Sergey Lavrov's temporary absence from public view and speculation about his political standing.
• Drone Incursions Across Europe: Mysterious drone sightings near critical infrastructure in several European countries, potentially linked to Russian hybrid warfare.
• Frozen Russian Assets: EU's consideration of using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, with Belgium being a key holdout.
• Remembrance Day: Commemoration of war dead, with a focus on the differing traditions of red poppies in the UK and blue cornflowers in France.

Military Updates: The Battle for Pokrovsk and Shifting Tactics

1. Intensified Russian Offensive in Pokrovsk:

• The battle for Pokrovsk is described as "raging on," with Russian forces pressing northwards.
• Approximately 300 Russian soldiers are reported to be inside the city, utilizing poor weather conditions for their advance.
• The Ukrainian Seventh Air Assault Corps' objective is to reach the northern borders of Pokrovsk to encircle Ukrainian defenders.
• Control of high-rise buildings in the northern part of the city is considered critical for defense.
• Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko stated, "We are losing the city."
• Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi estimates 150,000 Russian soldiers are concentrating for a final push on Pokrovsk.
• Between November 9th and 10th, 97 out of 265 combat engagements on the entire front line occurred in the Pokrovsk direction.
• While the pace of the offensive reportedly slowed due to Ukrainian counterattacks in the north and west, concerns remain about Russian advances from the south.

2. Impact of Weather on Drone Warfare:

• Weather has become a "crucial importance" in modern warfare.
• Fog and rain significantly hinder drone operations, allowing troops to advance with less fear of aerial surveillance.
• Heavy fog around Pokrovsk has facilitated Russian advances, with videos showing soldiers entering the city via motorbikes and civilian trucks, a departure from previous infiltration tactics.

3. Shifting Dynamics of Drone Operations:

• The vagueness of front lines and the increased infiltration by Russian forces have led to more Ukrainian drone pilots being killed or forced to retreat from their positions.
• This complicates Ukraine's ability to maintain its drone operations effectively.

4. Manpower Shortages and Desertion:

• Taras Chmut, a former Ukrainian officer, contrasts Ukraine's approach to manpower shortages with Russia's.
• Russia is experiencing a rise in AWOL (Absent Without Leave) and desertion cases but is effective in tracking and punishing deserters.
• Ukraine's society is less receptive to harsh punitive measures. Ukraine typically focuses on improving conditions for AWOL soldiers and offers them a chance to return to the front lines without punishment.
• Chmut argues that Ukraine has "passed the point" where enforcement can be avoided and calls for tougher measures against deserters.

5. Russian Nightly Bombardments and Energy Warfare:

• Russian drones struck the port of Reni on the Danube, hitting port facilities and a solar power plant.
• Drone fragments were recovered 5 kilometers inside Romanian territory, highlighting the war's spillover into NATO territory.
• Romania's air defense systems were activated, but fighter jets could not take off due to bad weather.
• DTEK, Ukraine's largest power company, reports a shift in Russian tactics towards increased use of ballistic missiles against power plants, replacing slower drones and cruise missiles.
• CEO of DTEK's trading arm, Dmytro Sakharuk, stated that some thermal power plants were attacked by five to six ballistic missiles, which are "highly accurate, highly destructive."
• This shift is concerning for maintaining power and heat during winter.

6. Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Infrastructure:

• Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast.
• The refinery has been targeted seven times this year, indicating a persistent Ukrainian pressure campaign.

7. Advancements in Ukrainian Unmanned Systems:

• In October, unmanned systems struck 77,000 enemy targets.
• FPV drones and heavy bombers showed the best performance.
• Unmanned ground vehicles delivered approximately 300,000 kg of supplies to Ukrainian soldiers on the front line in October, showcasing technological advancements.

Domestic Politics: Corruption Probe and Anti-Corruption Agencies

1. Timur Mindich: A Central Figure in Corruption Probe:

• Timur Mindich, described as a close associate of President Zelenskyy, is at the center of a major corruption probe.
• He co-owned Zelenskyy's production company before his presidency.
• Mindich is a businessman with influence across various industries, reportedly expanding his political and business influence since Zelenskyy came to power.
• He is alleged to have recommended former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov for his position. Chernyshov was later fired in June 2023 after NABU charged him with bribery and abuse of power.
• Mindich also has alleged ties to the Justice Minister, Energy Minister, and acting Agriculture Minister.
• He is also linked to drone producer Firefly, which is under NABU investigation, though Firefly denies any connection.

2. Allegations of Diamond Business in Russia and Embezzlement:

• An opposition MP from the Holos party published an investigation alleging Mindich has a diamond business in Ukraine and Russia.
• He allegedly owned a stake in Russian diamond producer "New Diamond Technology" until 2024, well into the full-scale invasion.
• The Security Service of Ukraine is investigating Mindich on suspicion of aiding Russia.
• The Holos investigation also claims NABU is investigating Mindich for embezzlement linked to the Odessa Portside Plant, a fertilizer producer.

3. Investigation into Energatom and Potential Leaks:

• NABU is investigating a $100 million kickback scheme involving Ukraine's state nuclear power company, Energatom.
• Searches were conducted at Mindich's apartment in Kyiv in connection with this investigation.
• Mindich reportedly fled abroad hours before the searches.
• Ukraine's Chief Anti-Corruption Prosecutor, Oleksandr Klymenko, has opened an internal probe into a possible leak of information, focusing on the deputy head of SAPPO, Andriy Sinuk, for alleged contact with a lawyer involved in the Mindich case.

4. Impact on Zelenskyy's Presidency and EU Accession:

• The Mindich case is cited as a factor that led to the authorities' attempt to curtail NABU's independence in July, which triggered nationwide protests and lowered Zelenskyy's approval ratings.
• Zelenskyy eventually relented, passing a new law to preserve NABU's independence.
• Zelenskyy stated that "Everyone who put together a corrupt scheme must receive a clear legal response. There must be criminal verdicts. The inevitability of punishment is needed."
• Eradicating graft is a key requirement for Ukraine's EU accession.
• The European Commission's report noted that Ukraine needs to accelerate reforms in the rule of law sector and step up its fight against corruption.
• The outcome of the Mindich probe, especially if it involves associates of Zelenskyy, will be crucial for Ukraine's EU accession prospects.
• Ukraine's parliament's first deputy speaker, Oleksandr Korniyenko, believes completing EU accession negotiations by 2028 is a realistic goal.

Foreign Policy and Diplomacy: Lavrov's Disappearance and Drone Incursions

1. Sergey Lavrov's Public Absence and Reappearance:

• Sergey Lavrov was absent from public view for a couple of weeks, leading to speculation about his political standing.
• He reappeared on Monday, giving an interview to RIA Novosti, but the accompanying photograph was at least a year old.
• His absence was noted when he was not present at a Security Council meeting convened by Vladimir Putin to discuss potential Russian nuclear testing in retaliation to US actions.
• This coincided with the announcement that Dmitry Peskov would lead Russia's delegation to the G20 summit, a role Lavrov typically held.

2. Speculation on Lavrov's Sidelining:

• The Moscow Times suggested Lavrov might have been sidelined due to the collapse of a potential meeting with Donald Trump in Budapest.
• This meeting reportedly fell apart after Lavrov's conversation with Senator Marco Rubio, who concluded that Russia had not budged on its positions.
• The Kremlin denied these rumors, stating Lavrov remains Foreign Minister.
• Lavrov has been in his post for 21 years, making his potential dismissal highly unusual.

3. Potential Successors to Lavrov:

• Sergey Ryabkov: Deputy Foreign Minister, considered to be in Lavrov's mold.
• Oleg Syromolotov: Another career diplomat.
• Igor Morgulov: Current ambassador to China, highly regarded among diplomats.
• Dmitry Peskov: Kremlin spokesperson, known for his calm demeanor and fluent English.
• Kirill Dmitriev: Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who has engaged in back-channel diplomacy and has been seen as freelancing foreign policy. Lavrov reportedly despises "amateurs" in diplomacy.

4. The Kirill Dmitriev Factor and Speculation:

• A caveat is added regarding speculation that Dmitriev's wife, who is reportedly the best friend of one of Putin's daughters, might be influencing events.
• A former Putin speechwriter allegedly claims she is engineering Lavrov's downfall because she and her circle want to end the war, and they see Lavrov as too hawkish and a barrier to concessions.
• The report acknowledges the genuine relationship between the two women but questions whether removing Lavrov would change Putin's hawkish stance.

5. Drone Incursions Across Europe:

• Mysterious drone incidents have been reported across Europe, particularly in Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, and Norway, between September 1st and November 10th.
• These incidents often occur near critical infrastructure, including nuclear power plants and airports.
• Experts state the drones are unlikely to cause structural damage to nuclear facilities but are likely for "espionage" or to "cause unease."

6. Potential Russian Hybrid Warfare and Intimidation:

• Belgium: Drone sightings near the Doel nuclear power plant and Liège airport occurred as pressure mounted for Belgium to approve a €140 billion EU package for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. Russia is suspected of trying to intimidate Belgium into not making this decision.
• Sweden: Drones were spotted near airports as Sweden finalized its decision to sell 150 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.
• Denmark: Drones were likely flown from a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker near Copenhagen, disrupting the airport. This occurred while Denmark was tweaking domestic laws to allow a Ukrainian arms manufacturer to build a rocket fuel factory.
• Estonia: As a frontline NATO country and hawkish on Russia, it is considered an obvious target.
• Norway: Airport disruptions were linked to the Danish incident with the Russian shadow fleet vessel.
• Germany: Numerous incidents suggest Germany, seen as potentially "flaky" on Ukraine support, is a target for swaying.
• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated, "We all see this connection. The Belgians too, this is a measure aimed at spreading insecurity at fearmongering in Belgium. Don't you dare touch the frozen assets."

7. NATO Response and Investigation Challenges:

• Article 4 of NATO, which obliges allies to consult when a member's security is threatened, is more relevant than Article 5 (collective defense).
• Britain, Germany, and France have dispatched counter-drone units to Belgium to bolster its defenses.
• While intelligence agencies and officials attribute these incidents to Russia's hybrid warfare, conclusive evidence is lacking.
• Investigations in Norway and Denmark have faced challenges due to insufficient evidence.
• There is speculation that criminal gangs, potentially hired by Russia or Iran, might be carrying out these operations.
• The sophistication of these drone operations, with near-perfect timing and apparent awareness of radio communications, suggests professional involvement.
• A key challenge is countering drones flown from within countries, rather than solely from across borders.

Remembrance Day Traditions and Cultural Differences

1. Remembrance Day in the UK:

• Observed on November 11th, commemorating the end of World War I.
• Characterized by a two-minute silence at 11 a.m. and the widespread wearing of red poppies.
• The memory of WWI is more present in the UK than in France.

2. The Origin of the Red Poppy Symbol:

• The tradition is attributed to Anna Guérin, a French woman who raised funds for French soldiers and their families during WWI by selling poppies.
• She was inspired by John Alexander McCrae's poem "In Flanders Fields."
• Guérin campaigned for a "Poppy Day," which gained popularity in the US, Canada, and then the UK.
• However, she was unable to establish the tradition in France.

3. The Blue Cornflower in France:

• Two French nurses, Charlotte Mellery and Suzanne Lenhard, promoted the blue cornflower as a symbol of French soldiers.
• The blue cornflower represented the blue uniforms worn by French soldiers, which made them easy targets in the trenches.
• While French officials have revived the blue cornflower since the 1990s, it is not as popular as the red poppy in the UK.
• Approximately 1 million blue cornflowers are sold annually in France, compared to 40 million poppies in the UK.

4. Historical Recognition:

• Anna Guérin and the nurses who promoted the blue cornflower were largely forgotten by history.
• A biography of Anna Guérin, "The Poppy Lady," was published in 2022 by a British historian.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The latest episode of "Ukraine: The Latest" provides a comprehensive overview of the escalating military situation in Ukraine, particularly the critical battle for Pokrovsk, and the evolving tactics employed by both sides. It highlights the significant impact of weather on drone warfare and the increasing reliance on advanced unmanned systems by Ukraine. Domestically, the podcast delves into a major corruption probe involving a close associate of President Zelenskyy, underscoring the challenges Ukraine faces in its fight against graft, which is intrinsically linked to its EU accession aspirations. Internationally, the mysterious drone incursions across Europe are analyzed as a potential form of Russian hybrid warfare aimed at intimidating Western allies, particularly concerning Belgium's stance on frozen Russian assets. The episode also touches upon the temporary disappearance of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, sparking discussions about potential shifts in Russian diplomacy and leadership. Finally, it offers a poignant reflection on Remembrance Day traditions, contrasting the prominent use of red poppies in the UK with the less widespread adoption of the blue cornflower in France, tracing the historical origins of these symbols. The overarching narrative emphasizes the interconnectedness of military, political, and diplomatic developments in the ongoing conflict and its broader implications for European security.