Most violent storm in its history to hit Jamaica | DW News

Key Concepts

• Hurricane Melissa: A Category 5 hurricane bearing down on Jamaica and affecting the wider Caribbean region.
• Category 5 Hurricane: The highest classification for a hurricane, indicating sustained winds above 250 km/h (157 mph).
• Eyewall: The innermost ring of a hurricane, characterized by extreme high-end winds and intense rainfall.
• Rapid Intensification: The process by which a hurricane's wind speed increases significantly in a short period.
• Storm Surge: An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide.
• Flash Flooding: Rapid flooding of low-lying areas.
• Landslides: The sliding down of a mass of earth or rock from a mountain or cliff.
• Divergence (Upper Atmosphere): The spreading out of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which helps to fuel a hurricane.

Hurricane Melissa's Impact on Jamaica

Jamaica is preparing for Hurricane Melissa, which has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane, the highest level, with winds exceeding 250 km/h. The storm is expected to make landfall on Tuesday. Authorities have ordered thousands of residents to evacuate their homes and move to emergency shelters, warning of catastrophic flooding, landslides, and extensive damage.

Preparations and Public Response:

• Residents are boarding up windows and doors with plywood and using sandbags to prevent debris from entering their homes.
• Supermarkets are experiencing shortages of essential supplies like bread as people stock up on food.

Projected Conditions:

• The hurricane is anticipated to be the most powerful to hit Jamaica since record-keeping began in 1851.
• The entire island is expected to experience hurricane conditions, with heavy rains and winds above 100 miles per hour (approximately 160 km/h).
• Due to its slow movement, hurricane conditions could persist over Jamaica for an extended period.
• Significant flash flooding is predicted across the island due to prolonged rainfall leading up to landfall and expected inundation.

Regional Impact of Hurricane Melissa

Hurricane Melissa's influence extends beyond Jamaica, affecting an entire region including Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

Dominican Republic:

• The Dominican Republic has experienced outliers of the storm, resulting in torrential rainfall.
• One-third of the country is on red alert due to the risk of flooding and landslides.
• Some communities have been cut off and are being resupplied via drone flights, even before the hurricane's main landfall.

Expert Analysis of Hurricane Melissa

Meteorologist Matthew Kapuchi provided insights into the expected impacts and the factors contributing to Melissa's rapid intensification.

Expected Impacts on Jamaica:

• Kapuchi stated it is "virtually guaranteed" that Jamaica will be hit by the eyewall, the most intense part of the storm.
• This could lead to a "humanitarian crisis that drags on for weeks, if not months" due to multifaceted hazards.
• Wind Damage: The eyewall will bring winds over 210-240 km/h, with "tornado-like wind speeds."
• Flooding and Landslides: Even areas not directly hit by the strongest winds will experience significant flooding, with over a meter of water expected in higher terrain, leading to mudslides that could isolate communities.
• Storm Surge: The eyewall will push water ashore, causing a storm surge of 3-4 meters or more, inundating coastal structures.

Factors for Rapid Intensification: Kapuchi identified three key ingredients for a hurricane to undergo rapid intensification:

1. Weak Upper-Atmosphere Winds: Minimal wind shear in the upper atmosphere allows the hurricane's structure to remain intact and strengthen.
2. Moist Air: Abundant moisture at all atmospheric levels is crucial; dry air can weaken the storm.
3. Warm Ocean Water: Incredibly warm water temperatures, around 32-33°C (nearing record warmth and the warmest in the Atlantic), provide the energy for intensification.
4. Upper-Atmosphere Divergence: Efficient spreading of air in the upper atmosphere allows more warm, moist air to be drawn in from below, further powering the storm.

Experience of Flying into the Storm

Matthew Kapuchi described his experience flying into the eye of Hurricane Melissa:

• The flight was akin to being on a roller coaster at night, with significant turbulence.
• He noted that the storm was in a "steady state" the previous night but had resumed a strengthening trend.
• Inside the eye, he observed the "bowl-shaped lowering" where air sinks, warms, and dries, creating a clear center.
• He described seeing stars in the eye at night, a surreal experience of beauty amidst the surrounding "hell on earth," and the terrifying realization of its impending impact on people.

Hurricane Preparedness and Safety Advice

Kapuchi reiterated safety advice for hurricane preparedness:

• "Run from the water, hide from the wind."
• Coastal residents should evacuate inland.
• For those remaining, finding safe refuge and creating multiple layers of protection between oneself and the outside is advised, treating it like a tornado.
• Unlike tornado advice, going to a basement is not recommended due to the high risk of flooding from both storm surge and freshwater inundation. The safest place is the lowest floor of a structure, but above any potential floodwaters.

Conclusion

Hurricane Melissa represents a severe and unprecedented threat to Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. Its Category 5 status, rapid intensification, and the combination of extreme winds, catastrophic flooding, and significant storm surge necessitate urgent and comprehensive preparedness measures. The storm's slow movement exacerbates the potential for prolonged devastation, highlighting the critical importance of following evacuation orders and seeking safe shelter. The scientific factors enabling its rapid growth underscore the ongoing challenges posed by climate change to hurricane intensity.