Most Bullish Silver Setup Ever: MOONSHOT Rally Ahead | Ed Steer

Key Concepts

• COMEX (Commodity Exchange): The primary exchange for precious metals futures trading in the U.S.
• Bullion Banks: Large financial institutions that act as the primary market makers and, according to the speaker, price manipulators in the precious metals market.
• Open Interest: The total number of outstanding derivative contracts (futures/options) that have not been settled.
• Structural Deficit: A long-term condition where the demand for a physical commodity consistently exceeds the available supply.
• "The London Bias": A phenomenon where precious metal prices are consistently suppressed during Western trading hours and rise during Eastern (Far East) trading hours.
• Registered vs. Eligible Stocks: "Registered" stocks are available for immediate delivery on the COMEX; "Eligible" stocks are held by long-term owners and are not currently available for sale.
• Short Squeeze: A market condition where a rapid rise in price forces short sellers to buy back contracts to cover their positions, further driving the price upward.

1. Market Dynamics and Price Manipulation

Ed Steer argues that the precious metals market is currently governed by "paper shenanigans" rather than supply and demand. He contends that Western bullion banks have engaged in a 50-year scheme to suppress gold and silver prices.

• Counterintuitive Price Action: Steer notes that during recent geopolitical turmoil (the Iran conflict), gold and silver prices were suppressed to prevent them from acting as a "safe haven," while the dollar index was artificially propped up.
• The "London Bias": Steer references his research showing that for decades, prices have consistently fallen during Western trading hours and risen during Eastern trading hours, suggesting coordinated intervention.

2. Physical Inventory and Supply Deficits

A central argument is that the physical supply of silver is being drained at an unsustainable rate.

• COMEX Drain: In 2026 alone, 139.6 million ounces of silver have been shipped out of COMEX warehouses, while only 16.2 million were received. Gold has seen over 6 million ounces (approx. 200 tons) leave the COMEX this year.
• Structural Deficit: The Silver Institute projects a 67-million-ounce deficit for 2026. Steer asserts that this deficit is being masked by the paper market, but the physical "pot is boiling dry."
• Shanghai Influence: The Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges are at 10-year inventory lows, and silver consistently trades at a 10–12% premium in China, acting as a "magnet" for physical metal.

3. The Mechanics of the "Paper Game"

Steer explains why the current system is fragile:

• Charter Restrictions: Many market participants in the COMEX futures market are prohibited by their own charters from taking physical delivery. Consequently, when they are "short," they cannot deliver physical metal to cover their positions; they must buy back paper contracts, which forces prices higher.
• Exchange Intervention: Steer warns that if a true physical squeeze occurs, exchanges like the COMEX might follow the precedent of the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel crisis—canceling trades or changing rules to protect the "big eight" commercial traders. He suggests that such an action would destroy the COMEX's credibility and shift price discovery to the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

4. Bullish Indicators

Despite the price suppression, Steer identifies two historically significant indicators that suggest a massive rally is imminent:

• Record Low Open Interest: Open interest in silver is at its lowest since 2012, and in gold since 2009. Low interest often precedes a major trend reversal.
• Record Low Short Positions: The "Big Eight" traders (the bullion banks) hold the lowest short positions in history. Steer describes this as a "wildly bullish" setup, stating, "The stage is set for an absolute moonshot rally."

5. Synthesis and Recommendations

Steer concludes that the current market environment is a "seismic" setup for a major price correction to the upside.

• Actionable Advice: He strongly advises investors to prioritize "physical metal in hand" over paper assets, as physical metal is not a counterparty liability.
• Long-term Outlook: He believes the bull market has years left to run and that silver is significantly undervalued, potentially destined for a "three-digit price" once the structural deficit can no longer be suppressed by paper manipulation.

"If Ted Butler were still with us today, I know I'd have to fly down to Jupiter, Florida to peel him off the ceiling. That's how absolutely off-the-wall bullish this is." — Ed Steer