Most Americans Don't Own Gold & What Will Change That | Keith Weiner

Key Concepts

• Speculation vs. Fundamentals: The distinction between price movements driven by speculative trading and those supported by genuine physical demand is central to understanding precious metals markets.
• The Gold Basis as an Indicator: The difference between futures and spot prices (the “gold basis”) provides valuable insight into market health and the nature of buying pressure.
• Cultural Significance of Gold: Gold ownership varies significantly across cultures, impacting demand and serving as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Tokenization of Gold: Emerging technologies like tokenized gold offer potential new avenues for investment and liquidity, but redeemability is crucial.
• Bullish Outlook for Gold & Silver: Despite recent volatility, the long-term outlook for gold and silver remains positive, driven by geopolitical and economic factors.

Precious Metals Market Volatility & Fundamentals (February 13th, 2026)

The interview begins by addressing recent volatility in precious metals, particularly silver, which experienced a parabolic price surge followed by a significant correction. This surge was attributed to speculative, leveraged positions unwinding, rather than sustained fundamental demand. Keith Weiner emphasizes that while the price correction occurred, the underlying fundamentals supporting gold and silver remain strong, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and currency debasement in regions like Turkey, where an estimated 7-8,000 tons of gold are held privately (“pillow gold”) and 120 million gold-denominated bank accounts exist in a population of 85 million. He contrasts this with the US, where less than 1% of Americans own gold.

The “gold basis” – the difference between futures and spot prices – is presented as a key indicator of market health. A widening spread signals speculative activity, while a narrowing spread suggests genuine physical demand. In 2025, the basis narrowed alongside rising prices, indicating stronger fundamentals than previous bull runs. Monetary Metals’ internal data supports this, showing 50% of deposits during the price run-up were in physical metal, compared to the usual 20%, indicating reluctance to buy at inflated prices.

Bitcoin’s Speculative Nature & the Importance of Redeemability

Weiner is highly critical of Bitcoin, arguing its price is driven solely by speculation and lacks the underlying economic fundamentals necessary to function as a unit of account, store of value, or medium of exchange. He states, “The only bid in Bitcoin is speculator. The price of Bitcoin is a marginal speculator.” He clarifies this isn’t a price prediction, but a fundamental assessment. He contrasts Bitcoin with the real-world need for dollars to complete transactions, such as purchasing a car.

The discussion then turns to the importance of redeemability for any gold-backed digital asset. Weiner stresses that the ability to exchange a digital representation for physical gold is crucial to maintaining integrity and avoiding purely speculative instruments.

Monetary Metals 2026 Gold Outlook & New Offerings

Monetary Metals released its 2026 Gold Outlook Report, maintaining a “continue bullish view on gold” and silver. Weiner admits to having “understated…how much the prices of the metals would go up” in the previous year’s report. The report features “intraday analysis” of the “basis,” with a detailed examination of January 29th and surrounding days, presented in a visually annotated style.

A new product, “Goldiegldy,” a token issued by Monetary Metals’ partner DreamX, is highlighted as a potential solution for tokenizing gold ownership and increasing liquidity. Monetary Metals continues to offer a service allowing individuals and entities to store gold and earn a yield on it. Kaiser Johnson requested a deeper dive into the January 29th basis analysis, specifically focusing on the observed “spread widening” and its implications.

Miles Franklin Weekly Specials (February 9th – 16th, 2026)

The segment concludes with Miles Franklin’s weekly specials, offering discounted prices on pre-1933 XF Gold $5 Liberty coins ($89 over melt), 2 oz Silver Canadian Rocky coins ($6.35 over spot), and 1oz Platinum Nobles ($170 over spot). Contact information is provided: 1-888-881-Liberty (1-888-15-4237).

Conclusion

The interview underscores the importance of distinguishing between speculative price movements and genuine fundamental demand in the precious metals market. The gold basis serves as a critical tool for analysis, and while Bitcoin’s price may fluctuate wildly, it lacks the underlying economic drivers supporting gold and silver. The bullish outlook for gold and silver, coupled with innovative offerings like tokenized gold, suggests continued opportunities for investors seeking a safe haven asset and potential yield.