Moscow’s Victory Day parade reflects strains of a prolonged war with Ukraine | DW News

Key Concepts

• Victory Day (May 9th): Russia’s annual commemoration of the defeat of Nazi Germany, traditionally marked by massive military displays.
• Truncated Parade: The 2024 event was significantly scaled back, lacking heavy armor, tanks, and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
• Security Vulnerability: The shift in parade format reflects fears of Ukrainian drone strikes and long-range attacks on Russian soil.
• Attrition Warfare: The depletion of Russian military hardware, with estimates of over 4,000 tanks and 9,000 armored vehicles lost.
• Internal Friction: Growing tension between the FSB (intelligence) and the presidential administration, alongside waning support among the Russian elite.
• Strategic Transparency: The role of drone technology in modern warfare, which has rendered large, exposed military hardware vulnerable on the front lines.

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1. The Shift in Victory Day Optics

The May 9th parade in Moscow, typically a display of military might, was drastically reduced in 2024. Unlike previous years where the ground would "shake" from heavy armor, this year’s event relied on video screens displaying high-precision weapons rather than physical hardware.

• Scale: Major cities like Nizhny Novgorod canceled parades entirely, while St. Petersburg’s event was reduced from a planned 5,000 participants to just 300.
• Security: Moscow implemented extreme measures, including shutting down mobile internet and restricting access to large parts of the capital, signaling a state of high alert.
• Diplomatic Isolation: The guest list was limited to leaders from a few allied nations, with a notable absence of Western journalists and a lack of the diverse foreign military contingents seen in previous years.

2. Military State of Play

Expert analysis from Dr. Dumatilla Sagamoso (King’s College London) highlights that the absence of tanks in the parade is not merely symbolic but a reflection of severe equipment depletion.

• Equipment Losses: Russia has reportedly lost over 50% of its Soviet-era inventory. With only an estimated 2,000 fully functional tanks remaining, the military is prioritizing front-line needs over ceremonial displays.
• Tactical Evolution: The prevalence of drone surveillance has changed the nature of the war; heavy armor is now too exposed to be used as openly as it was in the early stages of the conflict.

3. Psychological Warfare and Political Dynamics

The interaction between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Kremlin highlighted the shifting power balance.

• Zelensky’s "Decree": Zelensky’s tongue-in-cheek announcement that he would "allow" the parade to proceed without Ukrainian strikes served as a psychological blow, highlighting Russia’s inability to guarantee its own security.
• Kremlin Response: Dmitry Peskov’s defensive reaction to these jokes underscored the Kremlin’s sensitivity to being mocked and its struggle to maintain a narrative of strength.
• Domestic Sentiment: While public support for Putin has not collapsed, there is a palpable sense of fatigue. The war is no longer a distant event; drone strikes on oil terminals and infrastructure have brought the conflict into the daily lives of Russian citizens.

4. Internal Stability and Elite Friction

The summary of the political climate suggests that while the regime remains stable due to its massive security apparatus (FSB, police, and intelligence), cracks are appearing:

• Elite Discontent: Nationalist "Z-bloggers" and pro-war factions are increasingly vocal in their criticism of the war's management.
• Regime Survival: Dr. Sagamoso notes that historically, military failures in Russia have always posed a severe threat to the leadership. While the current elite may not be ready to topple Putin, they are increasingly signaling that the war has become a long-term, unsustainable burden.

5. International Context

The global focus has shifted away from Russia, with many nations preoccupied by crises in the Middle East, energy price volatility, and the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Russia is no longer the center of global attention, which further diminishes the prestige of the Victory Day event.

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The 2024 Victory Day parade serves as a microcosm of Russia’s current state: a nation attempting to project strength while struggling with severe military attrition, internal security fears, and a shifting global focus. The transition from a physical display of power to a "television show" format reflects a regime that is increasingly defensive. While the state’s repressive apparatus remains intact, the combination of economic strain, military losses, and growing elite friction suggests that the Kremlin is operating in a state of heightened vulnerability and uncertainty.