Morning Markets for Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

Key Concepts

• Pipeline Development: Agreement between the federal government and Alberta to potentially advance new oil pipeline projects, including the Pathways Alliance project and a proposed pipeline to the West Coast.
• Rogers Sugar Performance: Positive financial results driven by disciplined execution and consistent demand, with focus on expanding refining and logistics capacity.
• TSX Market Performance: A flat trading day for the TSX, following a recent rally into record territory.
• Market Correction and Rally: Analysis of a recent market downturn and subsequent rally, with short-term indicators showing strength.
• Sector Rotation: Observed shifts in investment focus, particularly towards healthcare (including biotech) and energy sectors.
• Government Support for Industries: Federal measures including tariffs on steel imports and financial aid for the softwood lumber industry to boost domestic demand and support struggling firms.
• Consumer Shopping Trends: Canadian consumers' preference for shopping Canadian, willingness to pay a premium, and the growing influence of AI in purchasing decisions.
• Retailer Strategies: Department stores and luxury brands focusing on customer experience and heritage to attract shoppers during the holiday season.
• Cannabis Legalization and Consumption: The increasing normalization and substitution of cannabis for alcohol, particularly in California, and its impact on holiday traditions.
• Economic Data: Canada's current account deficit shrinking due to trade in goods, with exports rising and imports declining.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. Federal Government and Alberta Agreement on Resource Development

• Main Topic: Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to unveil an agreement with Alberta aimed at facilitating new oil pipeline projects.
• Key Points:
  • The Alberta government has been negotiating with Ottawa to allow the Pathways Alliance project to move forward, alongside a proposed pipeline to the West Coast.
  • This agreement could reset the relationship between the federal and provincial governments, which have been at odds.
  • Reports indicate the new agreement will require a 75% cut in methane emissions over the next decade.
  • A tanker ban implemented in 2019 currently hinders new pipeline construction, and Ottawa's stance on lifting this ban is yet to be clarified.
  • The announcement in Calgary included a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
  • The agreement is described as a multifaceted agreement for an energy transition and a priority pipeline to Asia.
  • It will include one of the largest carbon capture projects in the world, aiming to make Alberta's bitumen barrels among the lowest energy-intensive globally.
  • The agreement also outlines intentions for nuclear power interties with other provinces and sovereign data centers.
  • Emphasis was placed on cooperation, partnership, and trust, with adjustments to regulations, including strengthening the tier system and methane regulations.
  • Unprecedented opportunities for Indigenous ownership, partnership, and economic benefits in Alberta and British Columbia were highlighted.
  • Premier Smith expressed that the removal of the emissions cap on Alberta and net-zero power rigs will unleash investment.

2. Rogers Sugar's Financial Performance

• Main Topic: Rogers Sugar's shares are trading higher following strong quarterly results.
• Key Points:
  • The sugar producer posted profit and revenue above expectations in its latest quarter.
  • Results were attributed to disciplined execution and consistent customer demand.
  • The company is focusing on expanding its refining and logistics capacity in Eastern Canada to meet evolving demand.
  • Shares were up approximately 1.25% to 1.5%.

3. TSX Market Overview and Investor Confidence

• Main Topic: The TSX is experiencing a flat trading day after a recent rally, with analysis on market indicators and investor sentiment.
• Key Points:
  • The TSX is trading pretty much flat, hovering around 31,200.
  • American markets are closed.
  • Most sectors are in the green, with the exception of construction, staples, and materials.
  • Bruce Campbell, President and Portfolio Manager at Stonecastle Investment Management, believes short-term indicators are strong despite a recent market drop.
  • Campbell noted that longer-term indicators remained positive during the correction, suggesting it was a "run of the mill" pullback with no fundamental issues.
  • Year-over-year economic data heading into 2026 looks positive, providing a strong backdrop for stocks in the first half of 2026.

4. Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities

• Main Topic: Analysis of sector rotation and specific investment recommendations.
• Key Points:
  • Healthcare Sector: Showing strength after a period of decline, including both stability names and biotech. The improvement in biotech is seen as a risk-on environment.
  • Energy Sector: Natural gas prices are strong, and despite a lack of strength in oil prices, some oil names are performing well. This could be due to flow of funds back into Canada from oil companies returning capital to shareholders, or an indication of future economic strength.
  • Investment Picks by Bruce Campbell:
    • Rocket Doctor: A healthcare software solutions company providing virtual services for doctors. It has developed a large language model (LLM) with a closed database for medical triaging, aiming for EBITDA positivity by 2026.
    • Abaxx: Operates in the exchange business for commodities, focusing on LNG and wind futures in Germany. It possesses technology for efficient settlement processes. The company is seen as a potential acquisition target due to industry consolidation.
    • Happy Belly Food Group: A quick-service restaurant brand currently building out 75 stores across the country.

5. Government Support for Steel and Softwood Lumber Industries

• Main Topic: Federal government measures to protect Canada's steel and softwood lumber industries.
• Key Points:
  • Steel Industry:
    • A 25% tariff on $10 billion worth of steel products and slashing import quotas.
    • For countries without a free trade agreement with Canada, quotas reduced from 50% to 20%.
    • For countries with a free trade agreement (excluding the US and Mexico), quotas reduced from 100% to 75%.
    • These measures start on December 26th.
    • Expected to open up over $850 million in new domestic demand for Canadian steel.
    • Algoma Steel shares were up over 3% (initially over 5%) following the announcement.
    • RBC Capital Markets analyst James McGarrigle sees these moves as positive, expecting earnings upside for Algoma Steel in the next year, particularly from the "Buy Canada" policy on steel plates.
    • Keenan Loomis, President and CEO of the Canadian Institute of Steel Construction, stated that the announced measures are topics they have been discussing with the federal government and that they will help steel producers recapture a good portion of the domestic market.
    • Emphasis on domestic procurement, including fabricated steel for taxpayer-funded projects.
    • Concerns about ensuring rules apply to derivatives of steel, not just primary steel.
    • The measures are aimed at keeping out cheap Chinese dumped steel and low-quality steel.
    • The private sector may see higher steel costs, but it's considered worthwhile to protect the domestic industry.
    • No significant political repercussions from the US are anticipated; instead, it positions Canada well for renegotiations by demonstrating toughness against Chinese steel.
  • Softwood Lumber Industry:
    • $500 million in financial aid to two programs providing financing to struggling softwood lumber firms.
    • This is in addition to previous federal financial aid.
    • The Forest Products Association of Canada sees this as a step in the right direction, showing government urgency.
    • Industry representatives from the US suggest this support risks exacerbating trade disputes and could result in the US government collecting these subsidies at the border.
    • Canfor shares were down over 1%, while West Fraser was up slightly.
    • Andrew Johnson's report highlighted that measures might be more focused on Eastern Canada, with some businesses in BC sending unfinished wood to the US to avoid tariffs.

6. Market Movers and Company Updates

• Main Topic: Updates on specific companies and market trends.
• Key Points:
  • Badger Infrastructure: Shares are up after National Bank Financial initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating, citing growth opportunities as North America's largest hydrovac excavator. The company benefits from its scale and diversification across construction segments, including data centers.
  • Gold and Silver Stocks: Down due to macro factors, particularly uncertainty around US interest rate paths and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in December. These stocks perform better with lower interest rates.
  • Canadian Shopper Behavior: A Boston Consulting Group Canada report indicates 80% of Canadians prefer to shop Canadian and are willing to pay a premium of 10%.
    • This preference is consistent in categories like apparel, electronics, and beauty, focusing on non-discretionary spending.
    • However, Canadians remain concerned about inflation, with 45% feeling less financially secure than last year.
    • Consumers expect at least 30% off during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
  • AI in Shopping: 40% of Canadian consumers are using AI to compare products and find value, particularly Gen Z and Millennials (around 50%). Retailers are adapting to ensure their websites are AI-searchable.
  • Canada's Current Account Deficit: Shrank to just under $10 billion in the third quarter, driven by a contraction in trade in goods (exports rose, imports declined), investment income, and trade in services.

7. Retailer Strategies for the Holiday Season

• Main Topic: Strategies of major retailers like Bloomingdale's and Burberry to attract consumers during the holiday season.
• Key Points:
  • Bloomingdale's:
    • CEO Oliver Braun aims to bring back the "golden age" of the department store by focusing on customer experience and relationships.
    • The company has posted four consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth.
    • They are betting big on the holiday season with personalized experiences and events.
    • Bloomingdale's has a 70-year partnership with Burberry, with their flagship store wrapped in a giant Burberry scarf.
  • Burberry:
    • CEO Joshua Schulman emphasizes the brand's uniquely British heritage as a differentiator in the luxury market.
    • Shares have rallied 50% since July 2024.
    • The brand offers a range of products from scarves ($520) to trench coats ($3,000) and candles ($130).
    • Burberry aims for broad, universal appeal while remaining a luxury brand.
  • Luxury Goods Market: JP Morgan report indicates consumer demand for luxury goods in the US has held up despite economic headwinds. The Global Luxury Index shows no sign of slowing down.

8. Cannabis Consumption and Legalization

• Main Topic: The increasing acceptance and consumption of cannabis, particularly in California, and its impact on holiday traditions.
• Key Points:
  • Loosened cannabis laws in California have led to its integration into holiday traditions.
  • A growing segment of the population identifies as "California sober," abstaining from or limiting alcohol while open to substances like cannabis or psilocybin.
  • Alcohol consumption has fallen to its lowest level in decades.
  • Over half of respondents in a Bloomberg Intelligence survey substitute cannabis for alcohol weekly, using products like gummies, extracts, and infused seltzers.
  • The day before Thanksgiving is the second biggest sales day for the US legal cannabis industry.
  • The industry was valued at over $30 billion last year, with forecasts for growth to $31.6 billion in 2024 and $39.1 billion by 2029.
  • Chef Miguel Trinidad is infusing THC into Thanksgiving menus to destigmatize cannabis through food.
  • Despite state legalization, cannabis remains a Schedule I drug federally, limiting access to banking, investment, and legitimacy.
  • The divide between state legalization and federal prohibition remains a significant hurdle.

Important Examples, Case Studies, or Real-World Applications

• Pathways Alliance Project: A specific oil pipeline project that the federal-Alberta agreement aims to advance.
• Rogers Sugar's Expansion: The company's focus on expanding refining and logistics capacity in Eastern Canada is a real-world application of adapting to evolving demand.
• Rocket Doctor's LLM: The development of a closed-database large language model for medical triaging is a specific technological application in healthcare.
• Abaxx's Commodity Exchange: The creation of exchanges for LNG and wind futures demonstrates a new approach to commodity trading.
• Algoma Steel's Stock Performance: The immediate positive reaction of Algoma Steel's stock to the government's steel tariffs serves as a case study of industry impact.
• Bloomingdale's Store Experience: The focus on creating an immersive customer experience, including personalized stockings and events, is a strategy to re-invigorate department store shopping.
• Burberry's British Heritage: The brand's emphasis on its uniquely British identity as a luxury differentiator.
• Cannabis-Infused Thanksgiving Meals: Chef Miguel Trinidad's use of THC in a Thanksgiving menu exemplifies the integration of cannabis into culinary traditions.

Step-by-Step Processes, Methodologies, or Frameworks

• Market Analysis by Bruce Campbell:
  1. Review various indicators (long-term, intermediate, short-term).
  2. Identify the severity of corrections and compare with underlying fundamental indicators.
  3. Observe sector rotation patterns (e.g., healthcare, energy).
  4. Analyze economic data for future outlook.
• Government Policy Implementation (Steel Tariffs):
  1. Announcement of tariffs and quota reductions.
  2. Effective date for implementation (December 26th).
  3. Monitoring of domestic demand and industry stock performance.
• Retailer Strategy Development (Bloomingdale's):
  1. Focus on customer experience and relationship building.
  2. Develop unique holiday season events and offerings.
  3. Leverage brand partnerships (e.g., Burberry).
  4. Track same-store sales growth to measure success.
• Cannabis Integration into Consumption:
  1. Shift in consumer preference from alcohol to cannabis.
  2. Development of cannabis-infused food and beverage products.
  3. Integration into social gatherings and holidays.

Key Arguments or Perspectives Presented

• Bruce Campbell's Perspective on Market Correction: The recent market drop was a standard pullback, not indicative of fundamental weakness, due to strong long-term indicators.
• Government's Argument for Industry Support: Tariffs and financial aid are necessary to protect domestic industries (steel, lumber) from foreign competition and economic hardship, boosting domestic demand and employment.
• Canadian Consumer's "Buy Canadian" Sentiment: Consumers prioritize supporting domestic businesses, even at a slightly higher cost, driven by national pride and perceived quality.
• Retailers' Focus on Experience: In a competitive market, creating memorable in-store experiences is crucial for attracting and retaining customers, especially in the luxury and department store segments.
• Normalization of Cannabis: The increasing acceptance of cannabis as a substitute for alcohol and its integration into everyday life, including holidays, reflects a cultural shift.
• Industry Representatives' Concerns:
  • Steel Industry: The need to protect all parts of the value chain, including fabricated steel, and ensure fair competition against unfairly traded steel.
  • Softwood Lumber Industry: The feeling of being overlooked compared to other industries and the need for a resolution to US trade disputes.

Notable Quotes or Significant Statements

• Premier Danielle Smith: "I think it's going to unleash an incredible amount of investment and allow us to work together on important nation building projects."
• Prime Minister Mark Carney: "At the core of the agreement, of course, is a priority to have a pipeline to Asia that's going to make Canada stronger, more independent, more resilient, more sustainable."
• Keenan Loomis (Canadian Institute of Steel Construction): "We believe that we should be our own best customer, that there's a lot of domestic market share out there, not just for raw steel, but for fabricated steel as well, especially with taxpayer, taxpayer funded projects."
• Kathleen Pulcinella (Boston Consulting Group Canada): "Canadians continue to be quite worried about inflation... whilst they may say that they're willing to pay more in the grand scheme of things, this macro anxiety is, is is high in Canada."
• Oliver Braun (Bloomingdale's CEO): "This is what we're refocusing on right now is bringing experiences not only great products, but really bringing experiences that create the conditions of relationship."
• Joshua Schulman (Burberry CEO): "Burberry is unique because we are the only luxury brand of scale that has a uniquely British heritage."
• Andrew Johnson (CTV News): "I feel like we're in the moment of Sophie's Choice, where softwood lumber is going to be the child that's left behind."
• Charles Galvan (Bloomberg News): "More Americans are opting for a different kind of buzz this holiday season, as state laws around cannabis and other drugs have eased up."

Technical Terms, Concepts, or Specialized Vocabulary

• Pathways Alliance Project: A specific initiative by major Canadian oil producers to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) infrastructure and a pipeline to transport oil sands products.
• EBITDA Positive: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. A measure of a company's operating performance. A company is EBITDA positive when its EBITDA is greater than zero.
• Hydrovac Excavator: A type of heavy equipment that uses pressurized water and vacuum to excavate soil, commonly used in construction and utility work.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods.
• Quotas: Limits on the quantity of a particular good that can be imported or exported.
• Softwood Lumber: Lumber produced from coniferous trees, commonly used in construction.
• Current Account Deficit: The difference between the value of a country's exports and imports of goods, services, and income. A deficit means a country imports more than it exports.
• Methane Emissions: Greenhouse gas emissions from the production and transport of oil and gas.
• Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS): Technologies that capture carbon dioxide emissions from industrial sources and either use them or store them underground.
• Interties: Electrical connections between different power grids.
• Sovereign Data Centres: Data centers owned and operated by a government or its agencies.
• WTO Obligations: Rules and agreements set by the World Trade Organization governing international trade.
• Primary Steel: Raw steel products.
• Fabricated Steel: Steel that has been cut, shaped, and assembled into components for construction or manufacturing.
• Derivatives Industry (in steel context): Products made from primary steel, such as beams, plates, and other structural components.
• Transshipment Point: A location where goods are transferred from one mode of transport to another for onward shipment.
• Schedule I Drug: A classification under the US Controlled Substances Act for drugs with a high potential for abuse and no currently accepted medical use.
• California Sober: A lifestyle choice that involves abstaining from alcohol but may include other substances like cannabis or psilocybin.
• Psilocybin: A psychedelic compound found in "magic mushrooms."
• Sous Vide: A cooking technique where food is vacuum-sealed in a plastic pouch and then cooked in a water bath at a precise temperature.

Logical Connections Between Different Sections and Ideas

The transcript flows logically from general market news to specific industry developments and then to broader economic and consumer trends.

• Market Overview to Industry Specifics: The initial market update on the TSX and Rogers Sugar sets a general context, which then leads into more detailed discussions about specific industries like oil and gas (pipeline deal), steel, and lumber.
• Government Policy Impact on Industries: The announcement of government support for the steel and lumber industries directly follows the general market news, illustrating how policy decisions can influence specific sectors.
• Economic Data and Consumer Behavior: The discussion on Canada's current account deficit and consumer shopping habits (including the impact of inflation and AI) provides a macroeconomic backdrop that influences business strategies and investment decisions.
• Cross-Border Comparisons: The comparison of Canadian consumer behavior with US retail strategies (Bloomingdale's, Burberry) and the discussion of US cannabis laws offer insights into international market dynamics.
• Technological Advancements and Industry Applications: The mention of Rocket Doctor's LLM and Abaxx's settlement technology highlights how innovation is shaping different sectors.
• Interconnectedness of Industries: The discussion on pipelines, energy transition, and carbon capture demonstrates the interconnectedness of the energy sector. Similarly, the steel tariffs and their impact on construction and infrastructure projects show a link between manufacturing and development.

Data, Research Findings, or Statistics Mentioned

• Rogers Sugar: Shares up 1.25% to 1.5%.
• TSX: Around 31,200.
• Steel Tariffs: 25% tariff on $10 billion worth of steel products.
• Steel Quotas: Reduced from 50% to 20% for non-FTA countries; reduced from 100% to 75% for FTA countries (excluding US/Mexico).
• Domestic Demand for Steel: Expected to open up over $850 million.
• Algoma Steel: Up over 3% (initially over 5%).
• Softwood Lumber Aid: $500 million to two programs.
• Canfor: Down over 1%.
• West Fraser: Up slightly.
• Badger Infrastructure: Initiated "outperform" by National Bank Financial.
• Canadian Shopper Preference: 80% prefer to shop Canadian, willing to pay a 10% premium.
• Canadian Household Finances: 45% less financially secure than last year.
• Households unable to cover expenses: 1 in 3.
• Consumer concern about rising prices: 90% for essentials, 83% overall.
• AI Usage in Shopping (Canada): 40% of consumers, 50% of Gen Z and Millennials.
• Black Friday Deal Expectation: Consumers look for at least 30% off.
• Bloomingdale's Sales Growth: Four consecutive quarters of same-store sales growth.
• Consumers shopping at department stores (US Holiday): 44%.
• Burberry Share Rally: 50% since July 2024.
• Burberry Scarf Price: Around $520.
• Burberry Trench Coat Price: $3,000.
• Burberry Candle Price: $130.
• Luxury Goods Demand (US): Largely held up despite economic headwinds.
• Canada's Current Account Deficit (Q3): Narrowed to just under $10 billion.
• Cannabis Industry Value (US Last Year): Just over $30 billion.
• Cannabis Market Forecast (US 2024): 4% growth to $31.6 billion.
• Cannabis Market Forecast (US 2029): $39.1 billion.
• Cannabis Substitution for Alcohol: Over half of respondents substitute weekly.
• Thanksgiving Sales Day (US Legal Cannabis): Second biggest sales day of the year.
• THC in Infused Rack of Lamb: 5 milligrams.

Clear Section Headings

• Key Concepts
• Federal Government and Alberta Agreement on Resource Development
• Rogers Sugar's Financial Performance
• TSX Market Overview and Investor Confidence
• Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities
• Government Support for Steel and Softwood Lumber Industries
• Market Movers and Company Updates
• Retailer Strategies for the Holiday Season
• Cannabis Consumption and Legalization

Brief Synthesis/Conclusion

The broadcast covers a range of significant economic and market developments. A key focus is the potential breakthrough in federal-Alberta relations regarding oil pipeline development, coupled with stringent methane emission reduction targets. The steel and softwood lumber industries are receiving government support through tariffs and financial aid, aiming to bolster domestic production, though concerns about trade disputes and long-term solutions persist. In the investment landscape, a recent market correction is viewed as temporary, with positive short-term indicators and a rotation into healthcare and energy sectors. Specific investment opportunities in healthcare technology (Rocket Doctor) and commodity exchanges (Abaxx) are highlighted. Consumer behavior is also a significant theme, with Canadians showing a strong preference for domestic products despite inflationary pressures, and the increasing influence of AI in shopping. Meanwhile, retailers are focusing on experiential strategies to capture holiday spending, and the normalization of cannabis consumption, even at holiday gatherings, reflects evolving social norms and market growth. Overall, the discussions underscore a dynamic economic environment shaped by government policy, industry-specific challenges, technological advancements, and shifting consumer preferences.