Moon: Trump is unique. That’s not how trade deals are made

Key Concepts

• US-China Trade Negotiations
• Tariffs and Trade Embargo
• Trump Administration's Trade Policy
• Negotiation Leverage
• Political Rhetoric vs. Economic Reality
• Presidential Negotiation Styles (Trump's "Wheeler and Dealer" approach)
• Diplomatic Protocol and Appearances of Weakness
• Role of Leaders (Trump and Xi) vs. Lower-Level Officials

Upcoming US-China Negotiations in Switzerland

The upcoming meeting in Switzerland marks the "first formal negotiations between the US and China during the Trump administration." According to Jeff, these initial talks will involve some "throat clearing and some introductory matters, and they'll need to set an agenda." However, he anticipates that "there will be some progress on the main issue, which is tariffs," due to the "pressing" economic situation, described as effectively an "embargo between the two countries."

The Pressing Issue of Tariffs and Potential Outcomes

The central focus of the negotiations is expected to be tariffs. Jeff notes, "President Trump has already said that tariffs are too high and they'll need to come down. He has effectively exhausted his leverage with China with regard to tariffs." He believes "that there will be some reduction that will be helpful."

Regarding the immediacy of such reductions, Jeff states, "I think something could come out" of the weekend's discussions, as the "situation is dire as trade is completely frozen up." Potential scenarios for tariff reduction include:

• Some immediate reduction.
• "Gradual reductions on both sides in parallel, one after the other."

Despite "a lot of political rhetoric about how tough both sides are going to be," Jeff emphasizes that "both sides in trade negotiations have a long history of turning on a dime." He cites examples: "Trump has imposed many, many tariffs and reversed them. And the Chinese have done similar sorts of things in other contexts." Therefore, he concludes, "I do think something tangible will happen, whether that will be the beginning of a gradual or a quick process."

Trump's Unique Negotiation Style and Leverage Dynamics

When asked about President Trump's negotiation style, Jeff, who has worked for both Republican and Democratic presidents, stated, "Trump is unique. He sees himself as a Wheeler and dealer that can make deals off the cuff. That's not how trade deals are made." He elaborated that "trade deals are made after long negotiations and leaders then bless them."

Concerning leverage, with both Beijing and the White House claiming to have it, Jeff advises to "ignore a lot of the rhetoric about how tough they're going to be," as "that is rhetoric for domestic audiences." His assessment is that "both of them need each other." He argues, "We are now at the point where rhetoric is over and reality is setting in and orders are being canceled, people are being laid off, ships are not sailing." This creates an "imperative on both sides to do something." Jeff believes "both sides are pragmatic enough, if they can get beyond all the political rhetoric, to get something done for their people."

The Role of Leaders and Diplomatic Protocol

Regarding the involvement of President Trump and President Xi, Jeff characterizes their relationship as a "business relationship at best." He does "not think that they need to get on the phone" to hammer out a deal. Traditionally, "in US China, relations leaders talk by phone or in person when there is something that needs to be ratified. Negotiations that lower level already happen and then the leaders ratify that."

The setup for the current meeting in Switzerland highlights the tense diplomatic climate. Jeff explains that the "easiest way" to begin negotiations would have been a phone call, but "relations between the US and China are so tense that even just requesting a meeting is now considered a sign of weakness." Consequently, an "elaborate series of procedures" was followed:

• The meeting is at the "next level down" from the leaders.
• The venue is Geneva, "which is equidistant between the two countries."
• "No one is hosting the meeting."
• There were "parallel announcements in both capitals saying that they leaders would be visiting Switzerland. And in the middle of the announcement said, oh, by the way, we're going to be meeting the other party in this negotiation."

Jeff concludes that "all of that was to avoid these protocol problems and the appearances of weakness. In fact, I think neither side appears weak."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The upcoming US-China talks in Switzerland are the first formal negotiations under the Trump administration, driven by a dire economic situation characterized by an effective trade embargo. While significant political rhetoric exists, the reality of economic pressure ("orders are being canceled, people are being laid off, ships are not sailing") creates an imperative for both pragmatic sides to achieve tangible progress, likely starting with tariff reductions. President Trump's unique "Wheeler and dealer" approach to negotiations contrasts with traditional methods where leaders ratify deals made at lower levels. The elaborate, carefully orchestrated diplomatic protocol for arranging this meeting in a neutral venue underscores the current high tensions and the desire of both nations to avoid any perception of weakness, even as they seek solutions to the trade impasse.