Mojtaba Khamenei hasn't been seen since the war began | DW News

Key Concepts

• Supreme Leader (Mochabar Hamini): The successor to Ali Hamini, currently in an undisclosed location following a major military strike.
• "Janbaz": A Persian term used by Iranian state media to describe individuals who have sustained serious, life-altering injuries in war.
• Intelligence Failings: The systemic security breaches that allowed for the targeted assassinations of high-level Iranian officials during the 40-day war.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): The elite military branch of Iran, historically loyal to the late Ali Hamini, now navigating a transition of power.
• State Continuity: The administrative framework allowing Iran to function as a state despite the loss of top-tier leadership and ongoing economic crises.

1. The Status of the Supreme Leader

Mochabar Hamini, 56, assumed the role of Supreme Leader following the death of his father, Ali Hamini, in a US-Israeli strike. Since his elevation, he has not appeared in public, nor has any confirmed audio or video of him been released.

• Physical Condition: While speculation suggests he was severely injured in the same strike that killed his family, official state media has only referred to him as a Janbaz.
• Credibility of Reports: Recent claims by the New York Times regarding specific injuries (burns to the face/lips, hand surgery) remain uncorroborated. Experts note that such reports often lack reliable sourcing and that similar past speculation regarding his father proved inaccurate.
• Current Role: Despite his absence, he is believed to be mentally capable and involved in decision-making, though his lack of public visibility is likely a combination of physical recovery and extreme security precautions following recent intelligence failures.

2. Governance and Power Dynamics

The current Iranian leadership structure is defined by "who survived" rather than a traditional succession plan.

• Division of Labor: The Iranian President manages domestic economic and service-related concerns, while the Majlis speaker handles diplomatic negotiations. This shift occurred because the original officials designated for these roles were assassinated.
• The IRGC’s Role: The IRGC remains a pillar of the regime. Its leadership consists of appointees loyal to the late Ali Hamini. While they maintain close ties to the Hamini family, the personal, tactile relationship the late leader had with the Guard is difficult to replicate, creating uncertainty regarding the long-term stability of this alliance.
• Internal Infighting: While US officials have suggested a rift between "hardliners" and "moderates," Iranian state representatives maintain a narrative of "ironclad unity," emphasizing that all factions are revolutionaries obedient to the Supreme Leader.

3. Strategic Sustainability and Economic Factors

The sustainability of Iran’s current military and political posture is under significant pressure.

• Military Planning: Iran’s military strategy is built on a 37-year foundation of viewing the US and Israel as existential enemies. However, this strategy has been optimized for short-term conflicts (measured in days) rather than prolonged wars.
• Economic Fragility: The regime faces severe economic strain, evidenced by the January 2026 protests, which were met with heavy state repression.
• The "Fog of War": Experts argue that once the immediate conflict subsides, the economic costs—compounded by the instability in the Strait of Hormuz—will likely undermine the current ruling group’s ability to consolidate power if they cannot provide a clear, successful outcome to the conflict.

4. Notable Perspectives

• Sabouch Ranjbar Da (University of St. Andrews): Emphasizes that the regime’s reliance on written declarations rather than physical appearances is unsustainable in the long term. He notes: "At some point, the supporters of the regime will need to see somebody... need to see some physical evidence."
• Regime Narrative: The Iranian President’s official stance, as stated on social media, rejects the "hardliner vs. moderate" dichotomy, asserting: "One God, one nation, one leader, one path, victory for Iran, dearer than life."

Synthesis

The Iranian leadership is currently in a state of "survival mode." The transition to Mochabar Hamini is characterized by a total lack of transparency, likely necessitated by both his physical recovery from war injuries and the need to prevent further security breaches. While the state apparatus continues to function through a division of tasks among surviving officials, the regime’s long-term stability is threatened by the disconnect between its military ambitions and its deteriorating economic reality. The ultimate test for the new leadership will be its ability to transition from a hidden, reactive entity to a visible, governing force that can maintain the loyalty of the IRGC and the public.