Modi-Putin meeting 'symbolic': Agreements 'predictable and along familiar lines' • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• India-Russia Relations: Primarily driven by realpolitik, serving as a balancer against China and a hedge against US political volatility.
• US Tariffs and Trump Administration: Perceived as a catalyst for India to strengthen ties with other nations, including Russia.
• India's Foreign Policy Stance: Non-interventionist in conflicts outside its immediate region, prioritizing negotiation and de-escalation.
• China as a Primary Threat: India's strategic focus on China influences its relationships with other global powers.
• Economic Cooperation: India's desire to increase bilateral trade with Russia, aiming for $100 billion from the current $65 billion.
• Migration and Mobility: A new area of potential cooperation, with Russia needing workers and India having a surplus labor force.
• Geopolitical Hedging: India's strategy to demonstrate it has multiple partners and is not solely reliant on the United States.

Summit Analysis: Symbolic vs. Substantive

Aparna Pandi, a research fellow and director at the Hudson Institute, analyzes the recent summit between India and Russia, characterizing it as largely symbolic with predictable outcomes rather than marking the start of unprecedented cooperation.

• Familiar Agreements: Discussions revolved around established areas such as defense agreements, nuclear reactors, training, maritime cooperation, and Arctic initiatives. These were described as "along familiar lines."
• Economic Broadening: A key, albeit not entirely new, aspect is the mutual desire to expand economic cooperation.
  • Target: The goal is to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion, up from the current $65 billion.
  • Motivation for India: This push for economic diversification is partly driven by India facing pressure from American tariffs and seeking alternative economic partnerships.
• Migration and Mobility: A new dimension of cooperation identified is in the area of migration and mobility.
  • Russia's Need: Russia requires a labor force.
  • India's Capacity: India possesses a significant number of workers seeking overseas employment to send remittances back home.

Geopolitical Drivers of India-Russia Ties

Pandi argues that the strengthening of India-Russia ties is more a consequence of the Trump administration's policies than a natural evolution, though it is a predictable reaction from India.

• Realpolitik Basis: The relationship with Russia is not sentimental but grounded in "real politic."
• Strategic Importance of Russia for India:
  • Balancer against China: Russia serves as India's counterweight to China on the continental landmass.
  • Hedge against US Politics: Russia acts as a buffer against the unpredictable nature of American foreign policy.
• Demonstrating Partnerships: When India faces global pressure, it uses relationships like the one with Russia (and France, among others) to demonstrate its diverse partnerships and its independence from sole reliance on the United States.

India's Stance on the Ukraine Conflict

Pandi clarifies India's position on the war in Ukraine, emphasizing its consistent non-interventionist approach to conflicts outside its immediate region.

• Universal Response: For the past 7-8 years, India's response to any conflict outside the South Asian subcontinent has been to call for both parties to cease hostilities and negotiate.
• Application to Ukraine: India has applied this same principle to the Ukraine conflict.
• Non-Involvement: India "does not get involved in a conflict outside of its homeland," even if it opposes conflict itself.
• Clarity for Partners: India's long-standing partners, including France, are aware of India's historical stance during the Cold War and its current position.

The China Factor and Potential Trilateral Alliances

Despite improving relations between India and China following their last major conflict, Pandi expresses skepticism about a deeper three-sided alliance involving India, Russia, and China.

• Prerequisites for Alliance: For such an alliance to materialize, China would need to cease provocations on the Indian border and sign a border agreement.
• Ongoing Border Tensions: Recent events, such as China detaining an Indian citizen from Arunachal Pradesh and claiming it as Chinese territory, highlight the continued border-related issues.
• China's Neighborhood Policy: China's actions in India's neighborhood that are against Indian interests further complicate any potential deeper alliance.
• Pragmatic Engagement: Despite China being India's biggest threat and rival, India maintains a relationship with China because it is the world's largest trading partner. Economic growth necessitates this engagement, similar to how President Macron engages with China.
• China as a Threat: Pandi reiterates that China remains the "biggest threat and rival to India in the foreseeable future."

Conclusion

The summit between India and Russia, while reinforcing existing ties, is primarily symbolic. The core of the India-Russia relationship remains rooted in realpolitik, serving India's strategic interests against China and as a hedge against US foreign policy. India's foreign policy is characterized by non-intervention in external conflicts and a pragmatic approach to economic engagement, even with rivals like China, driven by the necessity of economic growth. The ongoing border disputes with China remain a significant impediment to any deeper trilateral cooperation with Russia and China.