Modi meets Xi at SCO summit: India's balancing act between the US, China and Russia

Key Concepts

• India-China relations: Thawing ties, border disputes, mutual interests.
• US Tariffs: 50% tariffs on Indian goods, impact on India-US relations.
• India's Foreign Policy: Balancing strategic partnerships (US, China, Russia), multipolar world order.
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Regional economic and security forum, global south solidarity.
• China's Geopolitical Strategy: Presenting itself as an alternative to the West, leveraging US tariffs.

India-China Relations: Defreezing Ties

• Meeting: Narendra Modi met with Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tanzin, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to China in seven years.
• Commitment: Modi stated New Delhi's commitment to improving ties with Beijing, emphasizing the linked interests of 2.8 billion people and the welfare of humanity.
• Skepticism: Despite the positive tone, skepticism remains in India due to border disputes in the Himalayas and China's close ties with Pakistan.
• Border Tranquility: Modi stressed the importance of continued tranquility at the border regions for developing bilateral relations.
• Defreezing, Not Reset: The meeting is seen as a continuation of defreezing relations, not a fundamental reset. Relations hit "rock bottom" after bloody clashes in 2020 but eased up after a meeting at the BRICS summit in Russia's Kazan.
• Practical Steps: Resumption of flights and reissuing of visas are practical steps indicating improved relations.
• Xi's Perspective: Xi Jinping described India and China as "the world's two great eastern civilizations" that should be partners, not rivals, using the metaphor of "an elephant and a dragon dancing together."
• Concrete Agreements: Discussions included concrete agreements on resuming direct flights and easing visa processes for tourists.

US Tariffs and India's Response

• 50% Tariffs: The US imposed 50% tariffs on most of India's exported goods, using "humiliating language" that didn't go down well in India.
• China's Reaction: China criticized the US, calling it a "bully."
• No China-led Alliance: India does not seek a Chinese-led global south alliance and remains skeptical of China's intentions.
• Multipolar World Order: India prefers a multipolar world order where it can balance multiple strategic partnerships.

India's Balancing Act: Russia, US, and China

• Trusted Partner: India views Russia as a "trusted all-weather partner" for decades.
• No Contradiction: India sees no contradiction in being friends with Russia (or Iran) and the United States.
• Checking Russia-China Ties: India wants to keep a check on Russia's deepening ties with China, which it perceives as a threat.
• Energy and Defense Dependence: India is heavily dependent on Russia for energy needs and defense procurement.
• Delicate Balancing Act: India needs the US as its most important global partner, China as its largest neighbor, and Russia for strategic reasons. Balancing these relationships is a priority.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and China's Geopolitical Strategy

• Summit Agenda: The SCO summit agenda includes regional security, trade, energy, and the digital economy.
• Optics Over Deals: The summit is more about optics than signing big deals or agreements.
• Global South Solidarity: Xi Jinping aims to position himself as the head of a new bloc, an alternative to the West, showcasing "global south solidarity."
• Legitimacy: Having Modi on board adds legitimacy to Xi's new club.
• Other Meetings: Xi Jinping met with leaders from Iran, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Turkey, as well as the UN Secretary-General. He also met with Putin to discuss energy deals and the war in Ukraine. Kim Jong-un of North Korea attended the summit, marking his first international event since taking leadership.
• Seizing Opportunity: China is seizing the opportunity presented by US tariffs to present itself as a bigger partner to India. Some believe Xi is showing how Trump's tariff diplomacy can backfire.

Conclusion

The SCO summit provided a platform for India and China to continue defreezing their relationship, despite existing skepticism and border disputes. The US tariffs on Indian goods have created an opportunity for China to strengthen ties with India, but India remains committed to a multipolar world order and balancing its relationships with the US, China, and Russia. The summit is more about optics and showcasing global south solidarity under China's leadership than signing concrete agreements.