Middle powers ‘should prod N-powers on disarmament’ーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• New START Treaty Lapse: The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the US and Russia, removing key nuclear risk management mechanisms.
• Asian Middle Power Cooperation: The idea that Asian nations with moderate power can collectively influence nuclear powers.
• Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): A global treaty aiming for nuclear disarmament.
• Thai General Election: Upcoming elections in Thailand amidst political instability and border tensions.
• Australia-Indonesia Security Pact: A new agreement for security consultation and cooperation between the two nations.
• ASEAN Nuclear Weapons Free Zone: Southeast Asia’s commitment to remaining free of nuclear weapons.
• BRICS: A group of emerging economies including China and Russia.

Nuclear Risks and Asian Middle Power Response

Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution highlighted a significant increase in nuclear threat levels in Asia, stemming from the lapse of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia. This treaty’s expiration removes “legally binding limits, no inspections, and no mechanisms to manage nuclear risks” between the two major nuclear powers – a situation unseen in decades. Kim emphasized that while seemingly distant, the consequences will be acutely felt in Asia, a region already experiencing intensifying great power rivalries and strain on its existing security architecture.

She argues that Asian middle powers, while individually limited in influence, can collectively exert pressure on leading nuclear states. Kim stated, “In addition to pressuring great powers to do their part, I think it's very important for middle powers, for regional leaders uh to work together to resist the normalization of proliferation uh and to stabilize their own region through diplomacy, confidence building, strengthening regional norms, especially when we see that great power leadership is lacking.” Specifically, she urged ASEAN to reaffirm its commitment to maintaining Southeast Asia as a “nuclear-free nuclear weapons free zone,” resisting its transformation into an arena for great power competition.

Tim Wright of ICAN (International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons), the Nobel Peace Prize laureate organization behind the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), underscored the urgency of the situation, stating, “The risk of a nuclear weapon being used today is as high as it has ever been. Uh and this expiration of new start has only increased that risk.” Wright advocates for a shift towards a “nuclear weapon-free world” and calls on all Asian nations to join the TPNW to bolster momentum for nuclear disarmament.

Thailand’s Upcoming General Election

Thailand is preparing for a general election on Sunday, occurring against a backdrop of years of political instability and ongoing border disputes with Cambodia. Prime Minister Anutin Chanakun, leading the ruling Conservative Puma Thai Party, has gained support through a “hardline stance on the border conflict” fueled by rising nationalist sentiment. He has consistently pledged to “protect Thailand's territory” during his campaign.

The primary opposition, the People’s Party, led by Natapong, is attracting younger voters with its “reformist policies aimed at tackling social and economic inequality and rampant corruption.” Roan Wongawat, nephew of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinowat, is the People’s Party’s prime ministerial candidate, leveraging the continued influence of the Shinowat family in rural areas.

The election will determine the allocation of 500 seats in the House of Representatives. A recent opinion poll conducted by a national institution indicates the People’s Party currently leads with approximately 34% support, followed by Puma Thai at 23% and Puai at 17%.

Australia-Indonesia Security Pact

Australia and Indonesia have formalized a security pact, committing to mutual consultation in the event of a threat to either nation. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Joko Widodo (PBO) signed the accord in Jakarta, also establishing regular consultations at the leader or ministerial level on matters impacting their shared security.

Albanese described the agreement as “a historic moment in our nation's relationship and recognition that the best way to secure peace and stability in our region is by acting together.” President Widodo echoed this sentiment, stating, “We believe that this agreement will become one of the important pillars for stability and cooperation in our region.”

This pact reflects Australia’s broader strategy to strengthen security cooperation with regional partners in response to China’s increasing maritime assertiveness. Indonesia, while maintaining its non-aligned diplomatic stance, is simultaneously strengthening ties with both Beijing and Moscow, having joined the BRICS group of emerging economies last year.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The report highlights a confluence of escalating security concerns in Asia. The lapse of the New START treaty has heightened nuclear risks, prompting calls for increased regional cooperation, particularly from middle powers, to pressure nuclear states and pursue disarmament. Simultaneously, domestic political dynamics in Thailand and strengthening bilateral security ties between Australia and Indonesia demonstrate ongoing efforts to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape characterized by great power competition and regional instability. The emphasis on regional norms, diplomacy, and non-alignment underscores the diverse strategies employed by Asian nations to safeguard their interests and promote stability.